Week 9 Snap Count Analysis: Bucs at Bears

The first thing that sticks out in all of this is that rookie wide receiver Ted Hurst III played one snap in the entire game. Hurst dropped the ball with eight minutes to go in the second quarter on a second down play and did not see the field after. It was a clear benching by Tampa Bay, but considering this happened in the second quarter, it means that Hurst wasn’t even involved in any of the offensive drives beforehand.

This puts the Bucs between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, I admire the fact that Tampa Bay is trying to hold players accountable for their actions on the field, and constant drops (in this case with wide receivers) will result in less playing time. On the other hand, the Bucs’ passing game is so putrid that it needs all the help it can get. And despite Hurst’s inconsistencies, he does have size with his 6-foot-4 frame, and can be a threat down the field, sometimes drawing pass interference penalties.

Staying with the wide receivers, Tampa Bay went back to playing a ton of 11 personnel with three receiver sets. Chris Godwin Jr. led with 91% followed by Tez Johnson at 79% and Emeka Egbuka with 76%. Johnson had the biggest splash play, catching a 58-yard bomb from Baker Mayfield, leading to a Bucky Irving touchdown. But he also had two costly drops in the most playing time he’s seen all season.

Godwin wasn’t a factor once again, making two catches for 16 yards, although his biggest impact was a handoff he took for a 12-yard gain. Egbuka made his return after missing the previous two weeks and was relatively a non-factor, too, with 38 yards on three catches. He had two catches that went for a first down (one being a 21-yard screen), but it’s still not enough production as a former first-round pick.

When Johnson, a seventh-round pick a season ago, is the Bucs’ most productive receiver, what does that say about Godwin and Egbuka? And that’s where not playing Hurst is a conundrum. Tampa Bay isn’t getting enough from its receivers, and the amount of drops this team has had can’t be tolerated either.

A byproduct of playing more receivers meant less snaps for the tight ends. Cade Otton played the entire game but it was Payne Durham (21%) and Bauer Sharp (12%) that took a hit. It’s difficult to argue that they needed to play more when the team still ran for 126 yards on the ground, but they were so incredible the previous two weeks that it almost feels like why rock the boat?

The running back usage saw more go in favor of Bucky Irving than Kenny Gainwell at 69% to 38%. Irving scored two touchdowns and Gainwell had a big moment with a 44-yard reception, so their presence was felt. Tampa Bay will keep using Irving at a high rate and just won’t use Sean Tucker. It just is what it is.

What’s really damning for this offense, though, is if this team is going to use more wide receivers in 11 personnel than any other package, such as 12 or 13 personnel, why can’t the receivers get the ball? Between the tight ends and running backs, the Bucs had 11 receptions. The wide receivers combined for just seven. Meanwhile the Bears receivers had 16 catches to only six for their tight ends (no running back had a reception). The Bucs are doing everything backwards.

Why is Otton, their slowest pass catcher, getting the most targets? It’s aggravating to watch.

Bucs Defense

I was absolutely flummoxed to see that veteran outside linebacker Anthony Nelson got the start at edge rusher on the other side of Rueben Bain Jr. with Yaya Diaby out. Nelson had been seeing the fewest snaps at the position ever since the Bucs decided to play David Walker more, and yet it wasn’t even Walker or Al-Quadin Muhammad that got the start.

To Nelson’s credit, he recorded a half sack and nearly forced a fumble on D’Andre Swift, but he just got his knee down a half second before the ball came out. In all honesty, it’s hard to get on the defense’s case at all after they recorded and amazing five takeaways in the game.

Defensive tackle Calijah Kancey was exceptional for Tampa Bay as he looked like he was shot out of a cannon, recording three tackles and a half sack. The pressure was constant, and it clearly threw off Caleb Williams in the second half. With the way that Kancey and Vita Vea have been playing, it’s taken away snaps from Elijah Roberts and Elijah Simmons. The rotation is very similar, though, and both starters have played a lot better.

The rest of the units at inside linebacker and in the secondary played their typical amount. Unfortunately, Antoine Winfield Jr. exited the game early with an ankle injury and Ifeatu Melifonwu came in and played well once again, even recovering the fumble late in the game in a crucial moment.

But what a performance by this Buccaneers defense. They created five takeaways, including four interceptions for a second straight week. Everybody contributed, too. Cornerback Jacob Parrish was exceptional and deflected a pass that was intercepted by Alex Anzalone. Zyon McCollum had an awesome bounce back after a rough first quarter with two second quarter picks. Tykee Smith’s red zone interception was clutch in a moment where the team needed it. And Rueben Bain Jr.’s forced fumble late in the fourth quarter helped tie the game up.

It’s truly a shame that this performance didn’t pay off with a win. This would’ve been an iconic performance by the defense that would have talked about and referenced for several years. Instead, it’s a footnote on an excruciating, 27-24 loss in another one-score game where the Bucs just didn’t come out on top.