Weekend Six-Pack: NFL divisional-round Sunday betting preview

Duel in-bound: Jared Goff over 276.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

Both passing games look to be in a promising spot in this Detroit vs. Tampa Bay showdown on Sunday. The Buccaneers are allowing the second-most passes of 20+ yards, the fourth-most passing yards/game and the seventh-most yards per pass attempt.

Goff has hit this total in three of his last five games, is averaging 279.7 yards/game at home this year, and he went for 353 in October against the Bucs.

Duel in-bound, Part II: Baker Mayfield over 257.5 passing yards (-115 BetMGM)

We'll gladly double-dip on the narrative around passing success in this one. The past four QBs to see the Lions have all gone for 345+ yards, and Mayfield has flown over this total in four of his past five games.

Need we really say more? The Lions rank just as highly as the Bucs when it comes to success against opposing passing games, and in some respects, they're even worse. Detroit is allowing the most 20+ yard passes this year and the third-most yards per pass attempt. Expect Mayfield to sling it here.

Kansas City-Buffalo under 45.5 points (-110 DK)

We want this to be a replica of that unbelievable divisional round matchup a few seasons ago, but that just hasn't been the case the past few meetings between these two. Two straight meetings have gone under this total, including a 20-17 meeting just a month ago.

We don't really like this pick, but the numbers suggest it's the play. Kansas City is a league-best 13-5 to the under and Buffalo is 11-7 to the under.

Check the run: Isiah Pacheco over 60.5 rushing yards (-115 BetMGM)

With all the attention coming towards the star QBs in this Chiefs-Bills game, pivot against the grain and look to the running backs to make some noise here. Buffalo is allowing the sixth-most yards per rush this season, and Pacheco has been dominating on the ground of late when he gets the ball. He's over this line in five of his last seven, averaging 80.7 yards/game. 13-15+ attempts should get us here, and oh look, sportsbooks have him set at a 14.5 rush attempts line juiced to the over. Load up some Pacheco.

Likely to catch some balls: Isaiah Likely over 34.5 receiving yards (-114 FanDuel)

No team allows more receptions per game to tight ends than the Houston Texans, and they just allowed David Njoku to catch seven passes for 93 yards last round.

Mark Andrews is expected to be out on Saturday, giving lead tight end duties to Likely for another week. From Weeks 13-17, Likely went for 40+ yards each time, averaging north of 58 yards/game. This is a soft line worth jumping on.

Packers can power green: Green Bay +9.5 (-108 DraftKings)

One or both of these big underdogs are covering on Saturday, so we'll make the pitch for the Packers here. Consider us in the camp of still not being convinced that Brock Purdy is anything more than a serviceable starter, and just like that, Jordan Love looks the part of a franchise passer.

Love should find pockets against this secondary to get the ball to his receivers, and Aaron Jones has been explosive of late which should keep San Francisco honest on defense. This game has shootout potential, and we'll wager it's a touchdown or less between them when the final whistle sounds.