Jul 9, 2025; Frisco, TX, USA; West Virginia head coach Rich Rodriguez speaks with the media during 2025 Big 12 Football Media Days at The Star. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

West Virginia Shockingly Given Less Than One Percent Chance to Win Big 12

Originally posted on West Virginia Mountaineers on SI
By Schuyler Callihan | Last updated Jul 20, 2025 10:12 AM ET

Winning the Big 12 Conference in 2025 seems a little unrealistic for West Virginia. They have a brand-new coaching staff and over 70 newcomers on the roster, creating major question marks at just about every position, including quarterback.

That being said, it is the Big 12 - there is no one dominant team that everyone is picking to hoist the trophy at season's end. This conference is full of parity, and you could make the argument that half the league has a chance to be crowned Big 12 champs. With WVU, there are so many unknowns; it's hard to truly understand what this team is capable of. If they get out to a hot start, anything is possible.

According to the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index), however, the Mountaineers have virtually no shot, giving them a 0.6% chance to win the Big 12 this fall.

Full chances to win the league, per the FPI

1. Kansas State - 19.9%

2. Arizona State - 13%

3. Kansas - 11.3%

4. BYU - 10.4%

5. Baylor - 10.3%

6. TCU - 8.5%

7. Texas Tech - 7.8%

8. UCF - 4.7%

9. Iowa State - 3.7%

10. Utah - 3.1%

11. Cincinnati - 2.8%

12. Colorado - 2.4%

13. Oklahoma State - 0.9%

14. West Virginia - 0.6%

15. Arizona - 0.5%

16. Houston - 0.2%

As someone who has West Virginia slated 10th in my preseason Big 12 power rankings, I can't be too harsh on the FPI, but 0.6%? Yikes!

That's not even the worst part, in my opinion. How in the world does UCF, a team that's in a similar situation or perhaps worse, have the EIGHTH-best chance to win the Big 12? Is this real? This has to be a glitch in the computer's calculations.

Not only is UCF ahead of West Virginia, but the more mind-boggling piece of this is that they're ahead of Iowa State and Utah - two teams who are expected to be top contenders. The Big 12 did away with the preseason media poll and it might be time for the FPI to stop doing calculations.