What a Trevor Lawrence Trade Would Actually Cost an NFL Team Today

Trevor Lawrence isn’t going anywhere. That much is clear. The Jacksonville Jaguars picked him No. 1 overall in 2021, he’s the face of the franchise, and they just handed him a $275 million extension. But in a world where NFL trades mirrored the chaos of the NBA — salary caps loosened, dead money disappeared, and anyone could be moved — the former Clemson Tiger would still be one of the most valuable players on the market.

According to ESPN’s Bill Barnwell, Lawrence would land two first-round picks in a hypothetical trade scenario — a return reserved for only a handful of players across the league. That’s despite an up-and-down 2024 season that saw Jacksonville limp to a 2-8 record in Lawrence’s starts.

Why would teams still be willing to pay that price?

It starts with the pedigree. Lawrence was universally regarded as a generational college prospect coming out of Clemson, and he’s still only 25 years old. Teams that scouted him in college still believe in the ceiling he showed from late 2022 into the early part of 2023 — a stretch where he looked every bit like a future MVP. Even now, with some questions around consistency and durability, his talent is impossible to ignore.

And in today’s NFL, franchise quarterbacks don’t become available. If one did — especially one with Lawrence’s age, frame, athleticism, and experience — half the league would pick up the phone. The price? Probably not far off from what the Browns gave up for Deshaun Watson, or what the 49ers paid to move up for Trey Lance: multiple first-rounders, and then some.

That’s not to say Lawrence is a sure thing. There are fair critiques about his development arc, decision-making under pressure, and whether the Jaguars have done enough to support him. But if the reset button was hit, there’s no question he’d be one of the most in-demand players in the NFL.

Jacksonville knows that — which is exactly why he’s not on the market. But it’s still a reminder of just how rare players like Trevor Lawrence are. Even when things aren’t perfect, his value remains sky-high.