What happens to Falcons' Kirk Cousins if rookie Michael Penix Jr. succeeds?

With rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. flashing promise, don't count on the Atlanta Falcons keeping Kirk Cousins for much longer. 

Before their Week 16 home game against the New York Giants (2-13), the Falcons benched Cousins in favor of Penix. The eighth overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft completed 18-of-27 passes for 202 yards and tossed one interception in a 34-7 blowout. 

If Penix improves over the Falcons' last two regular-season games, they will likely release or trade Cousins in 2025.

"He would have a [trade] market," an executive told The Athletic's Jeff Howe in his Tuesday QB stock report. "However, the contract is what will hold it back. The compensation would depend on how much Atlanta would eat or if he would rework the contract." 

Cousins signed a four-year, $180M contract this past offseason, which includes a potential out in 2026. The deal also has a no-trade clause, but the QB would probably be willing to waive it. 

His salary in 2025 ($27.5M) is fully guaranteed, and his 2026 roster bonus ($10M) activates if he's on a team on the fifth day of the league year in March. This would detract potential trade suitors. 

Even if the Falcons absorb some of his salary, they won't receive a massive package for Cousins, who has thrown a career-high 16 interceptions in 14 starts.

Seven executives and coaches told Howe Atlanta wouldn't get more than a day-three draft pick for the 36-year-old. 

Releasing him would leave Atlanta with sizeable cap charges. The Falcons would incur $40M in dead cap in 2025 and $25M in 2026 if they cut Cousins with a post-June 1 designation, per Spotrac. 

The Falcons should still try to find potential trade partners. A QB-needy team (Tennessee Titans, Las Vegas Raiders?) may be desperate enough to take a risk on him.

Plus, Penix could prove he's the future of the franchise if he leads the Falcons (8-7) to the playoffs. Atlanta clinches the NFC South with a road win over the Washington Commanders (10-5) and a Tampa Bay Buccaneers loss in Week 17.