It is playoffs or bust in Atlanta. Not only are fans antsy to end a postseason streak that’s extended seven seasons, but if the Falcons don’t find themselves in the postseason, general manager Terry Fontenot and head coach Raheem Morris could be looking for new jobs in about six months.

The bones of Atlanta’s roster are in place to compete. The defense features a plethora of new faces, including four draft picks that are expected to make an immediate impact. The offensive line returns four of five starters, and the skill position group can rival any in the league. But without competent quarterback play, none of that is going to matter.

The Falcons success lies squarely on the shoulders of Michael Penix Jr., who many are already dubbing the organization’s next franchise quarterback after a rather impressive three-game stretch to end last season as rookie. If he can improve upon that, Atlanta should be in pretty good shape, but acting as if there will not be any growing pains is unrealistic.

While the expectations for Penix are sky-high, the oddsmakers paint a much less pretty picture.

Michael Penix Jr. Season Over Under Totals

• Pass Yards — 3,400.5
• Passing Touchdowns — 18.5

3,400 yards over 17 games is right at 200 yards per game, and 18.5 passing touchdowns is just over one touchdown per game. Admittedly, those feel criminally low, given what he showed last season and all the weapons he will have at his disposal. But as they say, those buildings in Vegas don’t build themselves.

There is a chance Michael Penix Jr. struggles mightily in his first season as a starting quarterback and doesn’t reach these numbers. Acting as if that’s not a possibility is foolishness. However, reaching these totals isn’t exactly what I would consider a successful season for Penix either.

4,000 yards passing, even with all of the Falcons weapons, might be a lofty bar to set, but something around that number feels realistic. That would mean averaging just over 230 passing yards per game after averaging 225 yards in his three starts last season. As far as touchdowns, if he can finish with 20-25, that should be viewed as a success. Anything north of that, and it might be time to start discussing the Falcons as Super Bowl contenders for the foreseeable future.