Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

What the 49ers have to do to have a successful season

Originally posted on San Francisco 49ers on SI
By Grant Cohn | Last updated Jan 7, 2026 1:12 PM ET

If you look at the 49ers' season a certain way, it already seems like a success.

They doubled their win total from 2024. They went from a six-win team to a 12-win team. And they did this after saying goodbye to nine starters during free agency, losing Nick Bosa and Fred Warner midseason, and permanently alienating Brandon Aiyuk by voiding the guarantees in his contract right before training camp started.

The 49ers never really seemed to expect to contend for the Super Bowl this season. That's why they said they were going to take their lumps in 2025. That's why they were quiet in free agency and did nothing at the trade deadline. They hoped that their young players would improve as the season progressed and they'd get hot at the end of the season.

And they did get hot -- they won six games in a row against teams that mostly weren't good. But their young players didn't necessarily take a giant leap as the season progressed. Instead, older players such as George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey and Jauan Jennings started playing up to their potential and carried the team.

Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

For a moment, it seemed like the 49ers might find a way to secure the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. Then, they scored three points against the Seahawks, and reality slapped them in the face. They're not nearly as good as the best teams in the league.

Now, the 49ers have to fly across the country to face the Philadelphia Eagles, who rested their starters last week. And the 49ers are beat up. They might have to start Kyzir White and Eric Kendricks at linebacker because Tatum Bethune and Dee Winters are injured.

So, if the 49ers lose to the Eagles, will their season be considered a success?

Absolutely not.

Sure, it's impressive that the 49ers won 12 games. But they were 9-1 against teams with losing records and 3-4 against teams with winning records. They mostly beat up on weak opponents. If they lose on Sunday, they'll be 3-5 against teams with winning records, and you'd have to wonder if their 12-5 record in the regular season was a mirage.

This has not been a transitional year in which a younger group of players asserted themselves as stars. With the exception of Brock Purdy, all the 49ers' stars are older players on the downside of their careers. So, if they go one-and-done in the playoffs, this season could be seen as the last gasp of an aging team that needs to rebuild.

Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

But if they go into Philadelphia and pull off the upset on the road against a team that is objectively more talented than they are, then they call this season a success. This would be the 49ers' most impressive victory since they beat the Rams on Thursday night football in Week 5.

Winning a playoff game with this roster would be a real accomplishment for Kyle Shanahan. Losing his final two games would be just another embarrassing collapse on his resume.

This article first appeared on San Francisco 49ers on SI and was syndicated with permission.

More must-reads: