What to Expect from Bears DT Gervon Dexter Sr.

The first step is to find comparable players to Dexter. In order to do this, I weighed NFL Draft measurements, pass rushing, and run defense stats for each player's final year of college (per PFF), as well as game experience.

Size and Athleticism

These two factors combine to account for 45 percent of the final similarity score. For the "Size" portion, I used height, weight, arm length, and hand size. Hand size has a much lighter weight than the other factors, for obvious reasons.

For the athleticism portion, I used the athletic tests that Dexter completed between the combine and his pro day. This includes the vertical jump, broad jump, 40-yard dash, 10-yard split, 3-cone drill, and shuttle run. I excluded bench press, because including it tends to cut the player pool down significantly.

Pass Rush

The "Pass Rush" factor includes pass rush percentage, pressure and sack rates, and pass rush win rate for their final year of college. Additionally, it includes all of the same stats for true pass sets to help us differentiate players who can take advantage of the moment. This factor is weighted at 25 percent of the final similarity score. 

Run Defense

The "Run Defense" factor includes run defense percentage, PFF run defense grade, run stop percentage, missed tackle percentage, and average depth of tackle. This factor is also weighted at 25 percent of the final similarity score, making it equal to the pass rush factor. Typically, I weight pass rush ability more heavily than run defense ability. But because we are talking about a nose tackle here, I feel like the two factors should be equal.

Experience

This factor is here to make more subtle differentiations between the data. It is only weighted at 5 percent of the final similarity grade. This includes the player's age, number of games played at the college level, number of years starting at the college level, and the percentage of snaps played in their final year of college.

Most Comparable Players to Gervon Dexter Sr.

The most comparable player for Dexter should make Bears fans smile. Daron Payne is one of the premier nose tackles in the NFL currently and just signed a massive contract extension with the Commanders. Although Payne is three inches shorter than Dexter, the two players are very similar in weight and hand size. Additionally, arm length is comparable enough between the two (Payne has 33" arms vs Dexter's 32.25" arms). Dexter appears to be the slightly better athlete in every testing measure except for the 10-yard split (1.66 seconds vs 1.7 seconds).

In the production department, these two players had extremely similar pass rush production in their final year of college. Dexter produced 25 pressures and 2 sacks in 347 pass rush snaps. Meanwhile, Payne produced 34 pressures and 2 sacks in 406 pass rush snaps. In true pass sets, the stats are nearly identical. Dexter posted a pressure rate of 11.8% with a pass rush win rate of 15.6%. While Payne posted a pressure rate of 12.6% with a pass rush win rate of 15.8%.

But, we cannot sit here and say that Dexter is definitively going to be Daron Payne 2.0. That is not a realistic way to look at this. The closest comp is Jay Tufele, who just finished his second NFL season with his second NFL team. And third is Eddie Vanderdoes, who has only suited up for 19 games since being drafted in 2017. And the fourth most similar comp is Kenny Clark. But, Clark produced significantly better pass rush numbers than Dexter did in college. 

To project a rookie season for Dexter, I took the average rookie production for his 10 closest comps, and projected it across 1,088 snaps (snap count for the 2022 Bears defense). Assuming that he plays 45% of the defensive snaps, I expect him to be in the neighborhood of 15 pressures, 2 sacks, and 14 run stops while playing on a 50/50 run-pass split. You can also consider what his numbers would look like given more or fewer snaps. It should be noted though that few nose tackles play more than 50% of their teams snaps. Daron Payne, who played 70% of the Commanders snaps in 2022, is the exception here, not the rule.

What Eberflus Wants at NT

In doing all this research, I ran into a comparison that I couldn't accurately quantify. That is Indianapolis Colts nose tackle Grover Stewart, who Matt Eberflus hand picked for his defense in 2017.

Stewart and Dexter entered the NFL at very different weights. But the athletic testing numbers are close enough for me to wonder how similar they would be if Stewart decided to slim down.

"[He] went completely vegan. Stewart was determined to trim some fat — he played much faster at 315 than 338. A 315-pound behemoth who relishes the dirty work and toils away at the most invisible position on the field." - Zak Keefer of The Athletic

Stewart is no longer space eating 330+ pound nose tackle he came into the league as. He chose to slim down in 2020, cutting his weight all the way down to 315 lbs, on par with the Bears new defensive tackle. I think it is safe to say that Eberflus saw a similar body type in Gervon Dexter. 

Final Thoughts

Ultimately, the numbers and comparable players point to a nose tackle who is able to stay on the field in passing situations. But not a player who has a strong enough pass rush to play clear and important passing downs. You can trust him to create pressure up the middle if not properly accounted for. And when he is properly accounted for, he should open up opportunities for others.

This season, I think we will see Dexter play a both the 3-technique and the 1-technique spot in the Bears defense. On clear rushing downs, I think we will see Andrew Billings at 1-technique and Gervon Dexter at 3-technique to create a forceful interior. Then, on more neutral downs, I expect to see a mix of Billings at 1-technique, Justin Jones at 3-technique, and Dexter rotating in at both spots depending on situation and scouting. And in passing situations, I expect to see a rotation of Jones, Dexter, Zacch Pickens, and Demarcus Walker kicking inside for a variety of alignments.

Versatility in a nose tackle is valuable on neutral downs. It gives the defense the ability to answer any checks or calls the offense makes at the line of scrimmage without overcommitting resources to any specific area. But even the best players listed as comparisons for Dexter did not have major box score impacts as rookies. It is the toughest part about evaluating nose tackle play. So trust your eyes while watching Dexter this year. For a few plays in every game, just watch him. Try to figure out what he was being asked to do on that snap. Then, decide whether you think he accomplished his goal. Trust your eyes, and don't get to caught up in the numbers.