What to Expect from Bears DT Zacch Pickens

The first step is to find comparable players to Pickens. In order to do this, I weighed NFL Draft measurements, pass rushing, and run defense stats for each player's final year of college (per PFF), as well as game experience. Because projection of size and athletic traits is such a large part of Pickens draft status, I only included players who have clear size and athleticism similarities. 

Size and Athleticism

These two factors combine to account for 45 percent of the final similarity score. For the "Size" portion, I used height, weight, arm length, and hand size. Hand size has a much lighter weight than the other factors, for obvious reasons.

For the athleticism portion, I used the athletic tests that Pickens completed between the combine and his pro day. This includes the vertical jump, broad jump, 40-yard dash, 10-yard split, 3-cone drill, and shuttle run. I excluded bench press, because including it tends to cut the player pool down significantly.

Pass Rush

The "Pass Rush" factor includes pass rush percentage, pressure and sack rates, and pass rush win rate for their final year of college. Additionally, it includes all of the same stats for true pass sets to help us differentiate players who can take advantage of the moment. This factor is weighted at 25 percent of the final similarity score.

Run Defense

The "Run Defense" factor includes run defense percentage, PFF run defense grade, run stop percentage, missed tackle percentage, and average depth of tackle. This factor is also weighted at 25 percent of the final similarity score, making it equal to the pass rush factor. Typically, I weight pass rush ability more heavily than run defense ability. But because we are talking about a nose tackle here, I feel like the two factors should be equal. 

Experience

This factor is here to make more subtle differentiations between the data. It is only weighted at 5 percent of the final similarity grade. This includes the player's age, number of games played at the college level, number of years starting at the college level, and the percentage of snaps played in their final year of college.

Projecting Zacch Pickens Rookie Season

Based on the 10 most comparable players, I would expect to see Pickens in a rotational role that results in roughly one-third of the Bears defensive snaps. Given his skillset, this will likely be used as a rotational pass rusher. But historically, players that measured below 300 lbs at the combine need a bit of an adjustment period to the NFL. The group as a whole is well below the average NFL defensive tackle in all metrics shown. This makes me think that setting a low bar for Piockens in his rookie year might be the smart choice.

Very few of these players walked into the NFL as successful pass rushers. I assume that players of this mold need to learn how to deal with NFL strength in order to succeed. Their athleticism was enough to overcome their size and strength deficits in college, but it typically is not enough in the NFL. But players like Joseph-Day, Ta'Quon Graham, and Osa Odighizuwa have worked on their game and become quality NFL starters.

Most Comparable Player to Zacch Pickens

The most comparable player to Pickens is Sebastian Joseph-Day. These two players are extremely similar in build and athleticism:

Joseph-Day was selected in the 6th round of the 2018 NFL Draft by the Los Angeles Rams. After sitting out his entire rookie season, Joseph-Day became the primary starter next to Aaron Donald from 2019 through the end of his rookie contract in 2021. Over that span, he played rotational snaps despite being the designated starter, never exceeding 500 snaps in a single season. In that time, he posted PFF grades of 63, 76.8, and 61.5. With the Rams, he posted a pressure rate of 5.7% (NFL average is 7.8%) and a sack rate of 0.90% (NFL average is 1.1%).

After his rookie contract ran out, he signed with the Chargers on a 3-year, $24MM contract. In 2022, he posted a PFF grade of 51 for the Chargers while playing a career high 758 snaps (68% of all defensive snaps). Additionally, he posted a pressure rate of 4.9% (NFL average is 7.8%) and a sack rate of 0.73% (NFL average is 1.1%).

Over the course of his career, Joseph-Day has graded out as a better run defender than pass rusher. But some of that might have been an effect of playing next to Aaron Donald for multiple years and being tasked with protecting run lanes while Donald shot gaps. With the Rams, Joseph-Day posted run defense grades of 62, 72.4, and 65. But with the Chargers, Joseph-Day's run defense grade fell to a career low 48.2. 

Final Thoughts on Zacch Pickens

We have seen players like Sebastian Joseph-Day, Taquon Graham, Osa Odighizuwa, Chris Wormley, and Jonathan Allen develop into NFL caliber starters or better. We have seen players like Robert Nkemdiche, Robert Windsor, Ross Blacklock, and Breeland Speaks bounce around rosters as they deal with constant injuries. I can only assume that the lack of size impacts the players ability to stay healthy.

However, I am a big believer that arm length helps the long term longevity of lineman. I think that plus arm length helps lineman avoid additional strain on joints, win initial contact, and control the rep, even in losing reps. This is apparent on Pickens tape. He has an uncanny ability to stay on his feet as others fall to the ground. Likely due to a combination of length and above average contact balance. 

If we narrow the comparable players down to players with 34+ inch arms who weigh 305 lbs or less, we end up with these physical comps, sorted by athletic similarity. And while this list of players does not account for college production or experience, these are the players who most closely resemble the frame and athleticism the Bears have in Pickens.

To be frank, looking at Pickens as a prospect involves a lot of projection. He was asked to play a gap-control tackle role in a 2-gapping defense at South Carolina. And no NFL defensive coordinator in their right mind would ask him to do that at the next level. Which makes the tape difficult to see clearly. His size and skillset seem to make him a prime candidate for a gap-shooting role in the one-gap defense the Bears run.

"Sometimes the defensive scheme says the tackle is responsible for only one gap - it's his job to make sure the running back can't come through his gap, and the other gaps will be someone else's responsibility. In this case we say the tackle is playing in a one gap defense. 

In other schemes, the tackle will be responsible for two gaps. His job will be to push that lineman backwards and make sure the running back doesn't run past on either side of his lineman.

If you want to play a two gap scheme, you need larger stronger defensive tackles who can control an offensive lineman. If you want to play a one gap scheme you can use slightly smaller defensive tackles who are faster and more athletic and can penetrate into the offensive backfield more often."

- One-gap vs two-gap defensive tackles

Ultimately, I feel like Pickens will either be a high-end rotational pass rusher on the interior or another tweener who can't stay healthy without much middle ground. And in my opinion, it will come down to how much sheer violence he can naturally bring with his hands while triggering on his excellent get-off speed. Violence comes more naturally to some players than others. And while Pickens tape shows quality hand usage, he was not asked to violently attack at South Carolina like he will be in Chicago. Which makes this a tough read until we see him in action.