What's next for Panthers QB Cam Newton?

A Cam Newton exit from Charlotte appears imminent. Now on injured reserve, Newton has not been the same since his transcendent 2015 slate and has spent most of the late 2010s battling two significant injuries.

The former MVP's dual-threat game led to more hits than his peers absorbed over the past eight-plus seasons he's been in the NFL, and the Panthers cutting bait on the top investment in franchise history would save them $19.1 million. Thus, a divorce seems logical on the surface given Cam's recent history.

Questions about Newton’s durability surfaced after shoulder trouble first intervened nearly three years ago. Judging by the results since Super Bowl 50, the once-elite weapon recapturing his 2015 dominance can be safely ruled out. After a Lisfranc issue, Newton merely returning to his early-2018 form cannot be assumed. 

These factors aside, this should not be an easy decision. How the Panthers proceed will be one of the pivotal points on the franchise’s 25-year timeline. Newton is by far the most important player in team history, and a case still exists for the Panthers to retain their 30-year-old passer in 2020.

The Panthers' 2-14 2010 season, which came after seven-year starter Jake Delhomme's release, moved them into position to land one of the most unique talents in the history of the quarterback position. This season’s team is still competing for a playoff berth. It is ill-equipped to acquire a new prospect, and unless Panthers brass believes Kyle Allen is a long-term option, trading or releasing Newton would thrust the franchise into quarterback purgatory. 

Allen and Will Grier are cost-controlled assets that should allow the Panthers to be patient with Newton, whose contract expires after next season. A second-year undrafted talent, Allen will be an exclusive-rights free agent (ERFA) in 2020 and, barring an extension, a restricted free agent in 2021. ERFAs can only be tendered contracts by their current teams. Grier’s third-round contract runs through 2022. The Panthers have flexibility at this spot, and thanks to Newton signing his deal in 2015 — two years before the quarterback market boom — his 2020 salary is not prohibitive.

Before new contracts for Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Philip Rivers are factored into the 2020 equation, the Panthers’ non-guaranteed $19.1M cash commitment to Newton ranks 14th among quarterbacks. The $20.7M-per-year contract Newton signed before his MVP season is a relic of a period when the quarterback market was stuck in a team-friendly place. Four-plus years later, Newton makes nearly $15M less annually than Russell Wilson, while both Alex Smith and Nick Foles outearn Newton.

Monitoring Newton’s recovery, as the Panthers did during his shoulder rehab during the 2017 and ’19 offseasons, and keeping a return for the QB in play makes the most sense. Allen has fared reasonably well in Newton’s stead, sporting the No. 23 QBR ranking, but he went undrafted for a reason. The Panthers should not view the second-year signal-caller as a future starter yet. They drafted Grier in Round 3 despite seeing Allen in practices and games for a year, after all.

Panthers GM Marty Hurney oversaw the Delhomme era and knows how to identify an undrafted quarterback gem. But Delhomme, Jeff Garcia and Jon Kitna were obviously the exceptions. Undrafted free agents can run offenses as stopgaps — as Case Keenum, Brian Hoyer and ex-Panther Matt Moore showed in recent years — but are rarely solutions.

However, if new owner David Tepper green-lights a fresh start, Newton will be among the most interesting trade chips in memory. Inconsistent mechanics and below-average accuracy helped give the 2010 Heisman recipient a polarizing reputation, but given some teams' quarterback play, buyers will emerge. Case in point: Teams gave up third- and fourth-round picks, respectively, for Tyrod Taylor and Joe Flacco over the past two years.

Newton’s QBR since the start of the 2016 season (48.6) ranks 30th — behind fellow 2020 trade chip Andy Dalton. In the easiest era to earn Pro Bowl invites, voters snubbed Newton from 2016-18. He was brutally ineffective playing through foot pain in September, but before his shoulder trouble resurfaced in November 2018, Newton carried a 15:4 touchdown pass-to-interception ratio under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner. The Panthers started 6-2 last season. Newton also rushed for a career-best 754 yards in Carolina’s 2017 playoff year. He piloted an offense deploying Ted Ginn, Corey "Philly" Brown and Jerricho Cotchery as its top wideouts to a 15-1 record and Super Bowl 50.

Should Carolina make Newton available, the Bears, Broncos, Buccaneers and Titans jump out as suitors. Matt Nagy’s offense made Mitch Trubisky serviceable last season, but the Bears may decide to sack their 2017 first-round pick given his performance since. Chicago has seen Trubisky drag down its championship-caliber defense and will surely inquire about Newton and Dalton next year. 

Another John Elway press conference in Denver explaining the latest veteran quarterback acquisition would be beyond comical, but Newton would move the needle more than Keenum or Flacco. Tennessee and Tampa Bay have underwhelming first-rounders in contract years; a healthy Newton represents an upgrade on each.

Post-injury quarterbacks with worse résumés than Newton’s enticed teams to part with prime draft assets. A soon-to-be 31-year-old Trent Green, a year and change removed from an ACL tear, fetched a first-round pick in 2001. The Dolphins sent a second-rounder to the Vikings for Daunte Culpepper in 2006 — less than six months after he tore knee ligaments. The Vikings dealt first- and fourth-round picks for Sam Bradford three summers ago. Newton's contract, age and ability will create a market.

But unless the Panthers are prepared to give the keys to Allen, they should be ready to ride this out. A quarterback making $19 million in 2020 should not represent an impediment to a team addressing other issues — like new deals for Christian McCaffrey and Shaq Thompson. The Panthers sit 21st in projected 2020 cap space with $46.3M.

If Newton cannot sufficiently recover, Allen and Grier remain developing commodities for a potential rebuild. The Panthers bailing on their longtime franchise centerpiece next offseason would slide them into an undesired NFL bracket: a middle-class team without upward mobility. That's where this might end with Newton, too, but considering his contract, hoping he can bounce back over the next nine months is a low-risk proposition for a team without a surefire plan.