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What's to become of Andy Dalton in Cincinnati?
After a promising start to his career, has Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton stagnated? Joe Robbins/Getty Images

What's to become of Andy Dalton in Cincinnati?

Getting shut out at home to a division rival is about as bad a note to start off a season as there is. In doing so, veteran starting quarterback Andy Dalton completely tanked, turning the ball over five times in a performance that was so bad that, at least according to ESPN’s in-house quarterback metric, it was the worst measured to date. That certainly compounds the problem.

Discussion of NFL quarterbacks is often cruel and seldom fair, and it’s easy to take potshots at Dalton. The Bengals have yet to win a playoff game with him under center, despite four tries. His numbers, while sometimes good, are seldom great. He’s not particularly charismatic and a little goofy-looking. A few years ago, J.J. Watt poked fun at his Red Rifle nickname following a Houston win over Cincinnati in prime time, a slight that got under Dalton’s skin. Let’s put it this way: He’s never going to be the face of the NFL.

Sunday arguably wasn’t even the worst outing of Dalton’s career. Back in 2014, his fourth year in the league, Dalton had one of the ugliest days you’ll ever see out of a quarterback, in a loss to Cleveland no less. He might have had fewer turnovers than he did this past week, though 10-33 passing for 86 yards is practically a feat in poor quarterbacking. At least against the Ravens, Dalton finished with a completion percentage above 50 percent and more than 100 yards through the air.

Dalton survived that 2014 disaster. Back then, there was still the perception he might continue to improve. Now in his seventh year as starter, it’s fair to assume what you’ve seen is what you’re going to get. It’s fair to say he’s an average to slightly above-average NFL starter who can be counted on to lay an egg every now and then.

The NFL quarterback market being what it is, that’s enough to stick around. Teams with just OK starters are often fine sitting in the middle of the pack, hoping a good enough supporting cast can elevate them enough to make a title run. Hey, it worked with Joe Flacco. There are only so many even competent starters in the league, and having to hit the reset button over and over with bust quarterbacks through the draft is a fate many franchises would prefer to avoid, even if it means sticking with a starter that doesn’t exactly excite the fans.

The Bengals operate with a different definition of urgency than the rest of the NFL. If you're being generous, you might call them patient with Dalton and head coach Marvin Lewis, except few people are generous with a team where a skinflint owner also operates as the general manager. The word complacent gets bandied around a lot.

For a while, Cincinnati had a decent thing going. The Bengals made the playoffs five years in a row. They might have lost all of those first-round playoff games, but for a franchise that had just two postseason appearances in the 20 seasons before Dalton arrived, being competitive was enough for most.

That run is over, though. The Bengals missed the playoffs with a losing record in 2016. They opened 2017 with an extremely discouraging loss. Thursday’s game against Houston looks winnable enough given the porous state of the Texans’ offensive line and quarterback situations, not that the Bengals’ line or QB acquitted themselves all that well in Week 1, either. Cincinnati had better win. A loss would drop the team to 0-2 with a Week 3 date on the road in Green Bay. Suffice to say, few expect the Bengals to steal one on the road from the Packers. Mike Brown might drag his feet on a lot of things, but an 0-3 start will mean even he is likely to hit the panic button.

Fans remember late in the 2015 season when A.J. McCarron took over and played well in Dalton’s absence. The result was ultimately the same: a first-round playoff defeat in which the quarterback didn’t exactly dazzle. That said, of all the recent Bengals playoff losses, that one to Pittsburgh in 2015 was arguably the one they had most reason to believe they should have won. Costly mental mistakes by the defense and a fumble by Jeremy Hill squandered a late lead. McCarron hasn’t had a shot since, and fan unrest will only build as Dalton struggles.

Dalton may not get the hook if the Bengals lose Thursday to Houston [Update: they lost], but it’ll be soon in coming without a dramatic turnaround. Dalton’s last 10 starts show regression from a quarterback who had been steadily improving. When he was still getting better, it made sense to keep paying him franchise quarterback money. If it looks like he’s peaked, there’s great incentive in moving on.

In 2018, Dalton’s dead cap value drops to $2.4 million, a function of the very team-friendly contract he signed in 2014, meaning the Bengals could drop him with relatively little consequence to their roster budget. A.J. McCarron is a restricted free agent after this season. The Bengals would obviously have to pay him more if they end up promoting him to starter. It would still be a bargain for what has been similar production to Dalton when he’s had the chance. 

Mike Tunison

Mike Tunison is a freelance writer based in Alexandria, Va. and the former editor of Kissing Suzy Kolber. You can follow him at @xmasape on Twitter.

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