When and where Caleb Williams is at his best and worst for Bears

On first-down plays he is even better, at 66.7% completions (58 of 87) for 693 yards with four touchdowns, no interceptions and a 106.2 passer rating. His 8.0 yards per attempt on first down is outstanding.

Second down woes

But on second down, he is completing only 53.5% for 396 yards (38 of 71) with no touchdowns, two interceptions and a 58.2 passer rating. This is way down from last year, when he had an 86.0 rating (1,186 yards, 115 of 196) and 58.7% completions. The 5.6 yards he is averaging per second-down attempt is feeble. Even with better stats last year, he was averaging only 6.1 yards an attempt then.

Being on the road Sunday against the Bengals will be a challenge  for him because he has only an 84.0 passer rating in road games. That's only a little better than he was last year on the road (80.8). His home passer rating this year is 99.5 and a little better than last year (94.6) but the Bears schedule this year definitely is easier at home.

There has been much concern over the last three games about Williams playing in the red zone. There should be. He's worse there than last year. His passer rating in the red zone is 86.9 and last year was 96.8.

That's not the point on the field where Williams is at his  worst. He has a horrendous 42.4 passer rating inside his own 20, and last year was at 79.0.

He as a passer rating of 96.5 when operating between the opposing 20 and midfield, an improvement over 86.4 last year. He's also better from his own 20 to midfield this year, with a passer rating of 90.0 and only 82.5 last year.

When it comes to point differentials, the comparisons are a little less meaningful because he had to operate most of last season facing deficits but he has a 93.8 passer rating this year when trailing and was 84.9 last year.

Williams struggles leading

Can Williams stand prosperity? Can Johnson? It's when they're winning this year that Williams isn't operating all that effectively. It suggests he and Johnson need to blend his passing in with the run better.

He has a passer rating of 80.2 with the lead and last year finished 111.4 with a lead. When he's leading this year by eight or less, his passer rating is only 76.0 while last year it was 103.7.

Passer ratings when leading by more than one score and conversion aren't as important when teams usually are operating within a range of one score either way in NFL games, but when the Bears were up nine or more this year Williams has a 93.4 passer rating, but last year in the rare instances they had a lead that big he had a 140.5 passer rating.

Those situational stats suggest there's more going on than just Williams here. The way Ben Johnson is calling plays at different points on the field and in different scoring circumstances matters.

The bottom line is Williams is better, but he needs to be better on second  down, on the road, in the red zone and in games when he gets a lead. And Johnson needs to be better in all of those circumstances as well.