When Expected to Pass, Jordan Love Defies Expectation

“The chart shows a quarterback’s performance (measured by EPA/play) when his team has an expected pass probability of at least 70 percent,” Hoppen explained. “Expected pass probability is based on a number of situational factors (down, yards to go, score differential) that are used to measure what the standard NFL has done in similar situations in the past.”

When teams are expected to pass, Love is No. 1 in the NFL with an EPA per play approaching 0.5. Love, the 49ers’ Brock Purdy, the Bills’ Josh Allen, the Patriots’ Drake Maye and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson are the only quarterbacks with even 0.4 EPA per play.

The chart is an analytics-based way to show what’s been apparent with any old- and new-school measurement: Love appears to have taken the step necessary to make the Packers a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season

Through Week 5, Love is fourth in the NFL with a 112.9 passer rating. The Packers haven’t asked Love to carry the offense – he’s only 26th in attempts – but he’s 10th in completion percentage (69.4) and fourth in yards per attempt (8.26) and has thrown eight touchdowns vs. only one interception.

The efficiency is noteworthy. Love completed 64.2 percent of his passes during his debut season as the starter in 2023. As he dealt with injuries last year, that slipped to 63.1 percent. His 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season is vastly better than his 2.59-to-1 in 2023 and 2024.

Third down is the money down in the NFL. On third down, 31 quarterbacks have thrown at least 20 passes. Love is third in that group with a 110.1 passer rating and second with a conversion rate of 47.4 percent. Impressively, Love is sixth in third-down conversions (18) but only 22nd in third-down attempts.

OK, but how about increasing the level of difficulty?

Using third-and-7 as the starting point for third-and-long, 31 quarterbacks have thrown at least 10 passes. From that group, Love is second with a conversion rate of 42.9 percent. He is first with an incredible 140.2 passer rating. While tied for 17th with 20 attempts, Love is No. 1 with 243 passing yards and 12.2 yards per attempt.

The Packers will play the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday. The Bengals on Tuesday traded for veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. While Love is No. 1 in EPA in expected-to-pass situations, Flacco while with the Browns is last by a wide margin.

By just about any measuring stick, including EPA per play, success rate and completion percentage over expectation, Love has been a top-tier quarterback this season.

Two highlights of this early stage of the season include Love’s play in a clean pocket. When given quality pass protection, Love has completed 87.2 percent of his passes and averaged 10.7 yards per attempt, both No. 1 in the league, according to PFF. His 140.3 passer rating is just behind Jackson’s league-best 142.0.

The potential return of right tackle Zach Tom from an oblique injury would give Love more clean-pocket opportunities. The play of left tackle Rasheed Walker against the Bengals’ superstar pass rusher, Trey Hendrickson, might be the key to the game. 

Another highlight is Love’s downfield success. That doesn’t necessarily mean taking big downfield shots. According to PFF, 31 quarterbacks have thrown at least 15 intermediate-level passes, meaning attempts between 10 and 19 yards downfield. Love is 16-of-21 on those passes, his 76.2 completion percentage trailing only Seattle’s Sam Darnold (78.1 percent). With five touchdowns and zero interceptions, Love’s passer rating is a near-perfect and top-ranked 157.1.

In a fresh batch of quarterback rankings, Love is No. 5 at The Athletic and Pro Football Network, No. 8 at Fox Sports and No. 9 at Sports Illustrated,

“Love is playing some of the best football we’ve seen from him,” SI’s Matt Verderame wrote. “In his third year as the starter, Love has thrown for 250 yards per game, ranking eighth among quarterbacks with at least four starts. … Those numbers should only improve playing the Bengals this week, who enter Lambeau Field ranked 29th against the pass.”