Where Are Packers Ranked in ESPN’s Football Power Index?

ESPN unveiled its preseason Football Power Index on Wednesday, with the Green Bay Packers kicking off their offseason practices ranked eighth.

What is FPI? Essentially, it’s an analytics-based power ranking that is “meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance.” The Packers are plus-2.3, which means they are 2.3 points better than the average team based on “thousands” of simulations.

In the powerhouse NFC North, all four teams rank in the top 16, with the Detroit Lions fourth, the Minnesota Vikings 15th and the Chicago Bears 16th.

There are significant questions for all three of those teams.

The Lions must adjust after losing both of their coordinators, the Vikings handed the keys of the offense to J.J. McCarthy after getting MVP-caliber play from Sam Darnold for most of last season, and the Bears have a new coach, Ben Johnson, charged with maximizing the talent of last year’s No. 1 overall pick, quarterback Caleb Williams.

“If there is a curveball,” ESPN’s Seth Walder wrote, “it’s that Minnesota ranks only 15th after going 14-3 in 2024. But the Vikings relied on their defense – which ranked third in EPA per play – last season while ranking a mediocre 15th on offense. And even though Brian Flores remains as defensive coordinator, defensive success is hard to replicate.”

The Packers have changes, too, though smaller in scope. One is there’s a new quarterbacks coach, Sean Mannion, to guide third-year starter Jordan Love. There are two new receivers, as well, with the additions of Matthew Golden in the first round and Savion Williams in the third round.

The key will be Love, who must bounce back after a difficult season.

“It’s the same staff, it’s the same system. Now, I’m stepping into a role that Tom (Clements) had, so I want to make it familiar with Jordan,” Mannion said. “Can I sprinkle in some things from my own experience to maybe just change things up here and there, try to stimulate maybe a couple of things with his development?

“But, like I said, we want it to be familiar for Jordan, and really just getting feedback from Matt (LaFleur), Steno (Adam Stenavich), everybody who’s in the QB room, in terms of how I can best support Jordan because, ultimately, that’s what’s most important.”

The defending champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, lead the way with a 12 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, followed by the Kansas City Chiefs at 11 percent, the Buffalo Bills at 10 percent, the Baltimore Ravens at 9 percent and the Lions at 8 percent.

No other team is greater than 5 percent. The Packers have a 4 percent chance to win the Super Bowl, which ranks 11th.

Detroit has a 41 percent chance of winning the NFC North, followed by Green Bay at 25.0 percent.

For the preseason, FPI is based “primarily” on betting-market win totals, team schedules, starter vs. backup quarterbacks, homefield advantages, rest differentials and other factors.

Of the seven teams ahead of Green Bay in FPI, the Packers will play the Baltimore Ravens, Lions, Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals. They will play three of the worst teams, too, with the Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers and New York Giants on the docket.

For the full story, including Green Bay’s chance of reaching the playoffs, click here.