Where does Caleb Williams rank among NFC North QBs? An ESPN analyst's take will shock you

Mike Clay isn’t on Team Caleb.

It’s not like he hates him or anything, but in his extensive and impressive 2025 NFL projection guide, the ESPN pigskin pundit doesn’t give Chicago Bears second-year quarterback Caleb Williams much in the way of statistical love, believing he’ll finish the season with some solid but unspectacular numbers:

• Passing Completions: 314

• Passing Yardage: 3,439

• Touchdowns: 22

• Interceptions: 10

• Sacks: 38

• Rushing Yards: 394

• Rushing Touchdowns: 1

That doesn’t bode well for the former Heisman Trophy winner’s standing in his own division.

Or does it?

We The North

The NFC North rolls into 2025 with four quarterbacks at wildly different points of their professional lives:

• You’ve got Williams—whose rookie year was solid, but not spectacular— coming into his second season armed with a innovative, offensive-minded rookie head coach, some notable new pass catching weapons, and an upgraded offensive line.

• You’ve got Jordan Love heading into his third year as a starter, looking to both get his Green Bay Packers over the hump and demonstrate he’s worth the four-year, $220 million extension he signed last summer.

• You’ve got Jared Goff up in Detroit, who’ll be wrapping up his first decade in the NFL and looking to post his fourth-consecutive 4,40

• And in Minnesota, you’ve got J.J. McCarthy, who has yet to see an NFL snap.

Without diving into the numbers, you’d guesstimate that the order for the best statistical 2025 would be:

• 1. Jared Goff

• 2. Jordan Love

• 3. Caleb Williams

• 4. J.J. McCarthy

Let’s see what Mr. Clay has to say about the whole thing.

Mike Drop

Clay’s calculation see some regression in Goff, and that’s understandable, as the Lions field general comes into ’25 with a new offensive coordinator in John Morton—the untested replacement for the aforementioned innovative, offensive-minded coach (Ben Johnson) who’s up in Chicago—plus he’s entering his age-31 season, a year in which dudes not named Tom Brady generally begin their slow decline.

• Passing Completions: 340

• Passing Yardage: 3,791

• Passing Touchdowns: 25

• Interceptions: 11

• Sacks: 32

• Rushing Yards: 60

• Rushing Touchdowns: 1

Clay also isn’t super-high on Love, giving him a line not too far removed from that of 2024:

• Passing Completions: 308

• Passing Yardage: 3,586

• Passing Touchdowns: 23

• Interceptions: 12

• Sacks: 28

• Rushing Yards: 143

• Rushing Touchdowns: 2

Surprisingly, Clay's algos feel that McCarthy will put up some (relatively) monster numbers:

• Passing Completions: 347

• Passing Yardage: 3,705

• Passing Touchdowns: 26

• Interceptions: 14

• Sacks: 39

• Rushing Yards: 206

• Rushing Touchdowns: 2

The Results Are In

Here’re the rankings for each statistical category:

Passing Completions

• 1. JJ McCarthy – 347

• 2. Jared Goff - 340

• 3. Caleb Williams - 314

• 4. Jordan Love – 308

Passing Yardage

• 1. Jared Goff – 3,791

• 2. J.J. McCarthy – 3,705

• 3. Jordan Love – 3,586

• 4. Caleb Williams – 3,439

Passing Touchdowns

• 1. JJ McCarthy – 26

• 2. Jared Goff – 25

• 3. Jordan Love – 23

• 4. Caleb Williams – 22

Interceptions (low to high)

• 1. Caleb Williams – 10

• 2. Jared Goff – 11

• 3. Jordan Love – 12

• 4. JJ McCarthy – 14

Sacks Taken (low to high)

• 1. Jordan Love – 28

• 2. Jared Goff – 32

• 3. Caleb Williams – 38

• 4. JJ McCarthy – 39

Rushing Yards

• 1. Caleb Williams – 394

• 2. JJ McCarthy – 206

• 3. Jordan Love – 143

• 4. Jared Goff – 60

Rushing Touchdowns

• 1. JJ McCarthy – 2

• 2. Jared Goff – 2

• 3. (tie) Jared Goff – 1

• 3. (tie) Caleb Williams – 1

In a shocker, McCarthy tops three categories, Williams takes two, and Goff and Love both get one., meaning our abouve guesstimation was, in a word, garbage.

And it looks like Clay and his numbers are very much on Team J.J. Whoda thunk?