Who to Pick First in 2025 Fantasy Football Drafts?

The Case for Drafting Ja'Marr Chase No. 1 in Fantasy Football

While fantasy owners tend to overvalue prior-year performances, it is challenging to make a strong argument against leaning into 2024's top skill performer. Chase scored 403 PPR points on a monster stat line of 127 catches, 1,708 yards, and 17 scores -- all of which led NFL receivers. His 175 targets represented the largest tally of any wideout in the game but was fourth with respect to share of his team's looks at 27.9%, checking in behind Malik Nabers (30.7%), Justin Jefferson (29.8%), and Drake London (29.3%).

In the offseason, Cincinnati shored up both guard spots along the offensive line, and 2024 first-round pick Amarius Mims should demonstrate marked growth at right tackle after allowing 33 pressures on quarterback Joe Burrow, who was sacked 48 times in total. Let that sink in for a moment ... Chase thrived a season ago with one of the weakest offensive lines in the game.

Cincy's core offensive skill players and coaching staff return unaltered, and we saw the storied cohesion between Burrow and Chase on full display in their limited preseason Week 1 action.

Some fantasy owners may refuse to ever draft a wide receiver first overall, even in leagues that cater to reception hogs, instead leaning on a running back. The position is far more volatile than receiver, and Chase himself has been one of the most reliably explosive players in his four seasons. Since entering the league, he has averaged 99 receptions, 1,356 yards, and 12 touchdowns a season, logging 19.67 fantasy points per outing. Mind you, that includes missed time with injury and Week 18 playoff rest.

For context, since 2020, only 10 total running back performances -- with Chase's floor of at least 12 games played -- have averaged that level of fantasy output. Among those efforts, 40% were from the same two players.

In short, finding a running back who will be that consistently productive and remain on the field year after year is borderline unicorn territory in modernity.

So, if you simply won't draft a receiver first ...

You Should Draft Bijan Robinson Over Saquon Barkley

... this would bring you to debate Robinson vs. Barkley based on ADP trends, even though Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs actually paced all backs in 2024 fantasy production, which is because Barkley famously sat out Week 18. On the year, he averaged 22.0 PPR points to Gibbs' 21.5 (17 games). Given the offensive line and coaching changes in Motown, it's not hard to identify why gamers have soured on him repeating his success.

Per ADP, Robinson is going second behind Chase -- one spot ahead of Barkley -- fueled by three placements as the No. 2 selection (ESPN, RT Sports, and Fantrax) to Saquon's pair of second-place rankings (Sleeper, NFL). Each player has a third- and a fourth-place figure in their averages.

In other words, it's basically a coin toss for most fantasy owners.

For a tiebreaker, we're leaning Robinson here, and the driving force the a lack of mileage and younger age. Barkley is coming off a whopping 345 rushing attempts, plus 33 receptions, in 16 regular-season appearances. Over the postseason run, he tallied another 104 touches in four games. Good grief. And all of that comes after 1,489 career touches (nearly 298/year when factoring at five seasons since he missed all but two games in 2020).

Barkley turned 28 in February and has history working against him in terms of living up to a high draft billing a year after such a large touch count. Furthermore, only two running backs in the last decade have finished RB1 in consecutive years. Barkley almost assuredly would have accomplished that feat with a 17th game.

Robinson, however, is only 23 years old as of Jan. 30 and has two NFL seasons under his belt. Last year's workload of 364 was slightly less than Barkley's, although spread over 17 games instead of 20. As a 2023 rookie, this Texas alum saw his workload managed to a respectable 272 touches. Barkley has done that in each of his four campaigns with 14 or more games played.

Both are versatile and play meaningful roles in the passing game, and each player operates behind one of the top offensive lines in the NFL. Quarterback play strongly favors Barkley as Jalen Hurts has established himself to a far greater degree than Michael Penix Jr., but Saquon will lose rushing opportunities in the red zone to his QB. Penix is not a threat to do the same for Robinson owners.

While it doesn't matter a great deal, the fantasy strength of schedule favors Robinson by a few spots. Don't put too much weight into using data from 2024 when applied to this upcoming season, due to personnel and coaching changes, along with all of the injuries of past and future playing a role.

Ja'Marr Chase is the No. 1 Fantasy Draft Choice

Injuries can happen to any player at any time, of course, but telltale signs -- age and tough mileage -- tend to give them a helping hand, and whiffing on the No. 1 fantasy pick is crippling.

Play it safe and smartly draft Chase over both running backs, regardless of scoring system.