Who's Rob Gronkowski's successor as NFL's top tight end?

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce, a third-round pick (63rd overall) in the 2013 draft, was a high-upside prospect at Cincinnati. His speed (87^th percentile 40 time of 4.61) and peak production (781 yards and eight touchdowns in his final college season) had teams excited, but there were concerns. In 2010, he was suspended for the season for violations of team rules. He also had only one season of quality production in college. 

Fast forward six years, and some teams that passed on him surely have regrets. After sitting out most of his rookie year because of a knee injury, Kelce has become one of the league’s more dominant players.

A four-time Pro Bowler, Kelce has racked up 410 catches for 5,236 yards and 32 touchdowns over the past five seasons, leading tight ends in catches and yards over that span. Only Gronkowski scored more touchdowns (37) among tight ends.

In each of the past three years, Kelce has eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving. He peaked in 2018, posting career bests in catches (103), yards (1,336) and touchdowns (10). Each mark ranked second among tight ends.

One of Kelce’s best traits is his ability to make things happen with the ball in his hands. His level of agility at 6-foot-5 and 260 pounds is incredible. On this play, he puts a juke on the safety, then uses his top-notch speed to pick up big yardage. He finishes off the run with some head-on power, grinding out an extra six yards following the initial contact. It’s a gain of 40 yards for Kelce on this play, 36 after the catch.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers

While Ertz and Kelce took time to reach dominant status, former Iowa Hawkeye Kittle has quickly become a force. He was selected in the fifth round by the Niners (146^th overall) in the 2017 draft. Scouts were not tremendously impressed with him: He was considered a versatile player but with holes in his game as a receiver and blocker.

It has not taken long for Kittle to make many front offices look bad. After a solid rookie season (515 yards receiving), Kittle went berserk in his second year, amassing 1,377 receiving yards. That mark broke the record for the most receiving yards by a tight end in a season, surpassing the mark set by Rob Gronkowski in 2011 (1,327).

Although draft evaluators poked holes in his all-around game, Kittle impressed with his outstanding athleticism. His 40 time of 4.52 seconds ranked in the 94^th percentile among tight ends at the NFL Combine, and his broad jump of 132 inches was even better, ranking in the 98^th percentile at the position. It’s these traits that have helped Kittle reach elite tight end status. 

Kittle led the NFL with an average of 10.2 yards after catch per reception in 2018, taking full advantage of his athletic traits to become a monster with the football. He had the two biggest gains of the season by a tight end in 2018, notching two touchdowns from more than 80 yards. One of the two is seen below. Left uncovered, Kittle takes full advantage, putting the safety on skates with a nifty juke and then outrunning the secondary with ease. Most tight ends cannot make this play look so easy.

So who's Gronk's heir?

It is an extremely tough decision, but I must go with Kelce, who's the most complete player of the three. He has the ability to make plays as a ball-carrier, in the downfield passing game and  in the red zone.

In 2018, Kelce averaged 5.8 yards after catch per reception, eighth among tight ends. As a deep receiver, Kelce deals heavy damage, leading tight ends with nine receptions over 20 yards downfield last season. In the red zone, he scored nine touchdowns in 2018, ranking third in the NFL. To top it off, he is a strong blocker –- a must-have skill for a player who is being compared to Gronkowski.

Ertz is an elite red-zone weapon and outstanding at moving the chains, but he’s not dynamic after the catch, posting the fourth-lowest yards after catch average among tight ends last season (3.3 yards). Kittle must do a better job in the red zone; in 2018, he caught only two touchdowns passes on 19 red-zone targets.

Kelce is the only tight end in NFL history to eclipse 800 receiving yards five times in his first six seasons. His average of 65.5 receiving yards per game over his first six seasons is the third-best mark in history by a tight end, trailing only Gronkowski (69.4) and Hall of Famer Kellen Winslow (72.9).