Why Chiefs-Patriots Week 14 showdown is already so captivating

Two clear peaks exist in the AFC’s near-50-year history: the 1970s dominance of the Dolphins, Steelers and Raiders and the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry. Manning's retirement left an AFC void, but the makeup of the team that eventually filled it creates the possibility for another unique chapter.

The Andy Reid-Patrick Mahomes partnership places the Chiefs as the best candidate to remove the Patriots from the status they’ve occupied for most of this century. While the Steelers and Manning’s Colts and Broncos franchises temporarily displaced the Pats, New England quickly resurfaced. Thanks to their 24-year-old superstar, the Chiefs are positioned to take over as the NFL's marquee team soon. 

A surefire NFC favorite has yet to emerge, and a clear demarcation exists between the Patriots-Chiefs tier and the rest of the AFC. Barring season-ending injuries to perhaps the NFL’s two most popular players, Brady and Mahomes, the Patriots and Chiefs are set up for a high-stakes duel in Week 14 at New England and an AFC title game rematch.

No two teams have met in consecutive conference championship games since the Cowboys and 49ers played in three straight from 1992-94. Four weeks is usually too early for such proclamations, but the Patriots and Chiefs appear to tower over their competition like the Cowboys and 49ers in the early 1990s. Parity/mediocrity grips the rest of the AFC, but the developments in Kansas City and New England overshadow it in a way Dallas' and San Francisco’s work once did over the NFC.

The Patriots’ infrastructure, and a Chiefs offense that is somehow deeper than 2018’s, make early-October projections for mid-January more reasonable than usual. While Brady lacks the weaponry he possessed over his past 11 healthy seasons (and in Antonio Brown’s 11-day stay), this Patriots defense looks better than any the franchise has assembled since this dynasty's early-2000s leg. Despite playing without Hall of Fame-caliber talent, New England’s defense carries the best DVOA figure through four games (minus-47.7 percent) in the statistic’s 34-season history.

In beating the Bills in Buffalo, the Patriots navigated what probably is their most difficult assignment on their annually cozy AFC East docket. With the winless Redskins and Bengals also on the schedule, the Pats' playoff bye route looks friendlier than usual. Fewer true obstacles loom compared to the Chiefs' slate. Given the Belichick-era Patriots’ penchant for improving as seasons progress, it is difficult to envision this version not extending the franchise's NFL record to 10 straight byes. 

The Chiefs leading the league in scoring without All-Pro Tyreek Hill adds luster to Mahomes’ early conquests. The reigning MVP hitting statistical checkpoints at a preposterous rate gives his team an unrivaled edge in marching toward the AFC’s other bye. The Mahomes-led Chiefs, 29th in defensive DVOA after devoting significant resources to repairing last season’s 26th-ranked DVOA unit, are 16-4 the past two years. 

That Mahomes is 18 years younger than Brady separates Kansas City-New England from the Patriots’ rivalries with the Colts and Broncos. Manning’s success against New England in AFC championship games did not provide much finality. Manning is two years older than Brady, and the Patriots' high-floor teams kept returning. Because Brady’s age-42 season places him in unexplored territory, these Chiefs are the first true threat to knock the Pats off their perch for good. 

While the Patriots effectively ended younger nuclei’s climbs — the Steelers, Seahawks and Falcons coming to mind — the Chiefs are likely here to stay. They pair one of the game’s top offensive schemers with an all-time quarterback talent, and the arrivals of LeSean McCoy and Mecole Hardman make the 2019 team more difficult to defend. The Chiefs will likely complete a roster-construction-changing Mahomes extension next year. But for now, they carry the NFL's best contract.

This being perhaps the final rival of the Belichick-Brady era adds a certain mystique to 2019. Before Week 14, the NFL’s two best teams will pursue other roster-augmentation avenues, likely with their rival in mind.  The Jaguars now prefer to keep cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who is believed to have the Chiefs on his destination list. With the possibility of a post-merger-record number of teams exiting Week 5 winless, the combination of motivated sellers and this AFC duopoly may make this the most interesting trade deadline since the Herschel Walker trade in 1989. 

Mahomes stands in line to become the face of the NFL soon, but this season will shape part of his legacy. If the Chiefs fail to get by the Patriots before the defending Super Bowl champions’ key principals part ways, the heir apparent will have ascended by default. That would not be a good look for Reid, who has experienced some notable postseason difficulties. Of the 16 coaches with at least 20 seasons’ experience, Reid is among the four (along with Marty Schottenheimer, Dan Reeves and Chuck Knox) without a championship. Belichick's unassailable resume including another conquest over a stacked Reid team would deal another blow to Reid's credentials.

The Chiefs' dethronement  of the Brady-Belichick Patriots would carry more weight historically. The defending champions' attempt to prevent this ending makes 2019 one of the most captivating seasons in many years.