Why Colts Can't Afford a Loss vs. Jaguars

In what may be their most important game of the season, the Colts will travel south to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars this Sunday. A loss would make it three in a row for Indy and would seriously knock their odds of winning the AFC South. A win would give them control over the division.

To put it plainly: the Colts can't afford a loss. Here are the main reasons why.

Team Morale

Three losses in a row after a hot start is an easy way to kill any momentum you might have built. Before the season, the Colts were viewed as underdogs and a fringe playoff contender. That perspective rapidly changed as they jumped ahead of the pack with eight wins in 10 games.

The first half of the Colts' schedule was loaded with bottom feeders, giving the team a chance to build up its confidence against some of the worst in the league. The second half was always going to be a challenge, but nothing the Colts couldn't handle if they played clean, complementary football.

Indy has fallen short in its first two games after its bye week, but both games were extremely winnable. The Colts can't afford a third loss, though, even if it's another one-score game.

Football is all about how you perform in the clutch. The best teams find a way to push the ball downfield and come up with points, no matter the circumstances. The Colts haven't been able to do that over the past two weeks, but they have a chance to flip the script against Jacksonville.

The Jaguars have allowed the fourth-most points per fourth quarter (8.8) this season, which is considerably more than the Texans (3.1) and Chiefs (5.1).

If it comes down to a final drive, the Colts will face a defense that hasn't performed well in late-game scenarios. Indy can either regain some of its early-season morale with a clutch game-winning drive or lose it all with another fourth-quarter flop.

Divisional Record

If two teams are tied for a division lead at the end of the season, the first thing the NFL looks at is head-to-head performance. If the head-to-head is split, the next tiebreaker is divisional record.

Both the Colts and Jaguars are 2-1 in AFC South play, with both teams suffering a loss against the Texans. The issue is, the Colts played the Tennessee Titans twice, who are a league-worst 1-11. The Jaguars have only played them once.

Jacksonville still has a couple of "easy" games left on its schedule, while the Colts have the hardest final stretch in the league when you look at opponent win percentage.

A divisional win on the road for the Colts would be absolutely massive. It would tie them with the Texans for best divisional record in the AFC South, and it'd give the Colts a chance to control their own destiny if it comes down to tiebreakers.

The Colts still have to face the Jaguars and Texans again after this week. Playing meaningful divisional games to end the season is like simulating playoff-level football, so those two final games for the Colts should be an indicator of how the team will fare in the postseason.

AFC Wild Card Standings

Not only do the Colts have their division rivals to worry about, but the rest of the AFC as well. The Colts are parked in the sixth seed, but they're tied with the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills with an 8-4 record.

Lurking just outside the playoffs are the Texans, Chiefs, and Steelers, who have all beaten the Colts. Indy doesn't have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the wild-card hopefuls, which makes a win this weekend all the more necessary.

Beating Jacksonville takes the Colts out of the wild card entirely, giving them some more breathing room down the final stretch.

Technically, when you simply look at the numbers, the Colts can realistically afford a loss. But when you add in the mental aspects and the postseason chase, the Colts can't walk away losers for the third straight game.

The Colts must overcome a decade-long losing streak in Jacksonville to save their season from falling apart. A loss could unravel all the work they've put in to get to this position, but as the saying goes, anything can happen on any given Sunday.