Why Dak Prescott Should Be the Favorite to Win NFL Comeback Player of the Year

(Editor’s note: This article is from The Spun by Athlon Sports’ 2025 Football Betting Guide — the perfect preseason reference companion for new bettors or sharps alike. Order your copy today online, or pick one up at retail racks and newsstands nationwide.)

There has perhaps been no greater ambiguity in the modern sports awards era than the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year. Its malleable criteria tailors itself to whatever personal narratives emerge each year, so comparing candidates is always an apples-to-oranges conversation.

Case in point: Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin was the market favorite in 2023 after returning to the active roster despite suffering cardiac arrest on the field the previous season. Hamlin recorded only two combined tackles in 2023, but the emotional pull of his return gained oddsmakers’ attention — until a 39-year-old Joe Flacco led the Cleveland Browns to a remarkable playoff crusade in the season’s eleventh hour.

The veteran signal caller would garner 151 votes to Hamlin’s 140.

According to the Associated Press’ subsequent clarification on the award’s criteria, Hamlin was robbed. Before the 2024 season, the AP defined the recipient as one who has “overcome illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season.”

This has made making a preseason investment in the elusive futures market a bit more rational, but we’re left evaluating which season-ending tragedies among popular players were most gruesome.

Joe Burrow won his second Comeback Player of the Year Award in 2024 following wrist surgery that capped his 2023 season after 11 weeks.

Here’s where Flacco meets Hamlin in Burrow’s case: The Bengals quarterback had a sensational season, leading the NFL with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdown passes. Oddsmakers view the comeback award as the MVP among each season’s exclusive pool of rehabilitated stars. The narratives and player prominence are already there — it’s breaking down who can make the biggest impact.

That’s why I have my eye on Lions defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott.

Hutchinson, who opened in the spring as the +250 market favorite, is projected to be ready for training camp after enduring a broken leg six weeks into 2024. Detroit’s defense was inundated with injuries down the stretch in Hutchinson’s absence, yet the Lions still secured the No. 1 seed and an NFC Championship appearance. With a new defensive coordinator and a Super Bowl window at stake, Hutchinson’s personal narrative conveniently coincides with Dan Campbell’s plight for a franchise-first title.

Prescott, who opened with the third-shortest odds behind Hutchinson and 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, has led a career charged with adversity: personal matters, contract disputes and two season-ending injuries, including a partial hamstring avulsion that ended his 2024 season 10 games early. All of this under the scrutiny of being the franchise quarterback of “America’s Team,” which sets the stage for Year 10 in Dallas, where Prescott has still yet to lead the Cowboys to an NFC Championship.

If Prescott stays healthy and leads the Cowboys back to the playoffs in a cut-throat NFC East climate, he will be the politically correct choice for Comeback Player of the Year. Let’s not forget, this award has become a quarterback’s campaign; a signal caller has won it in each of the last seven seasons.

Here are the updated odds for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, courtesy of betMGM (editor’s note: these odds are updated from what appears in the magazine):