The Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided to go for two points after scoring a touchdown to cut the Detroit Lions' lead to eight points instead of kicking the traditional point after touchdown attempt and naturally, many people were questioning why Todd Bowles made the call.
It's unorthodox when looking at the game of football from its beginning. Two-point conversions, even in today's game, are much harder to pull off than PATs. So, naturally, wouldn't coaches and teams want the natural path of least resistance when attempting a comeback?
For sure. That's a great baseline to operate from, but context is always important and in the context of the Bucs and Lions - there was no way the Bucs were going to beat the Lions in overtime while watching the game unfold.
It was a smart decision by Todd Bowles. If you convert the two-pointer, then you're down by five points and a touchdown automatically wins the game. You don't even have to worry about kicking the PAT to win the game, which is a relief in its own right. It gave the Bucs the best chance at beating the Lions.
If the Bucs don't make it, they're still down one possession and they're fighting to tie the game. They'd be in the same spot in regard to tying the game by kicking two PATs - but it's obviously harder trying to tie a game by going for two.
Still, the math works, ultimately, and as you can see via the chart below, the probabilities make sense:
the right process to go for 2 down 8 even if the result wasn’t there pic.twitter.com/CKLI7TIcLv
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) January 21, 2024
It’s simple math. Yes.
— Ryan (@pladinosaur) January 21, 2024
Imagine going for two down 1 to win the game, but if you fail the first time you can try again to simply tie the game.
The main argument against analytics is that numbers don't factor in the feel of the game, therefore, they can't be fully relied upon. And while they shouldn't be fully relied upon by any means - the Bucs certainly went off the feel of the game and they were right after evaluating their perception. The Lions were obviously the better team, but the Bucs had a small chance to steal a win and they went for it.
Ultimately, it's hard to blame the decision. Now, the play call, on the other hand, certainly warrants criticism.
End zone fades are frustrating enough, but what makes the call all the more frustrating is Bucs offensive coordinator Dave Canales is a modern offensive mind and he runs a modern offense. The fade is an ancient play that has a low success rate, why in the world did he think that was the call to make, there?
That's what needs to be diagnosed and evaluated, at the end of the day. The decision to go for two was fine, but the Bucs need to have a different play dialed up, next time.
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