Why every NFL team will or will not win Super Bowl LVIII

Why they will: Kyler Murray could return from ACL surgery by midseason. Perhaps the new coaching staff will get more out of him than Kliff Kingsbury, and he still has capable weapons in Marquise Brown, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz.

Why they won't: Arizona's roster is a mess to start the season, with Joshua Dobbs starting under center and a defense that has seen major turnover. Jonathan Gannon didn't appear to be the most inspirational hire, and there's real reason to believe the Cardinals are tanking with a great quarterback class set for the 2024 draft.

Why they will: Head coach Arthur Smith enters his third season with a roster finally coming into form. The running back room looks terrific, led by rookie Bijan Robinson, and the defense has added multiple proven veterans at all three levels. The team also has an easy schedule in arguably the league's easiest division.

Why they won't: Winning a Super Bowl depends on the quarterback in today's NFL, and the Falcons don't know what they have in second-year starter Desmond Ridder. The defense could also take time to mold, and several of the additions, like Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree are past their primes.

Why they will: Baltimore brings back the bulk of their elite defense, and addressed the major issues that have hindered the offense recently. New coordinator Todd Monken has promised a more creative offense, particularly pass, while wideouts Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers give Lamar Jackson viable receiving options.

Why they won't: Jackson's durability should be questioned, missing significant time in each of the last two seasons, and it remains to be seen if he can be an elite passer. The AFC North doesn't offer any free passes, with the Browns and Steelers possibly set for bounce-back seasons in addition to the strong Bengals, so Baltimore could also struggle to get favorable playoff positioning.

Why they will: Buffalo was arguably the best team in football last season before Von Miller's late-season injury. Miller is expected to return later this season, and the team has added Leonard Floyd along with offensive weapons Damien Harris, Dalton Kincaid, and Trent Sherfield. After back-to-back outstanding seasons, quarterback Josh Allen looks ready to take the next step.

Why they won't: The loss of defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier could hurt, and it's unclear what level Miller will be able to play when he returns given his age. The secondary also struggled last season, and could see an age decline from safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.

Why they will: Carolina returns the bulk of an improving, young defense, and have added significant talent to the offense with rookie Bryce Young and veterans Miles Sanders, Adam Thielen, and DJ Chark. New head coach Frank Reich was a consistent winner in Indianapolis until last season, and the NFC South is arguably the worst division in football.

Why they won't: This is the team at the start of a rebuild after five consecutive losing seasons. Young was a terrific player in college, but it's a lot to ask him to lead a new offense in his rookie season.

Why they will: Few teams were more active in the offseason. The Bears surrounded Justin Fields with more talent, including first-round right tackle Darnell Wright and star wideout DJ Moore. Fields made strides last season, and could take the next step with the additional talent. The defense also got a boost with veteran free agent additions Yannick Ngakoue, DeMarcus Walker, Tremaine Edmunds, and T.J. Edwards. 

Why they won't: It's unclear if Fields is capable of being an elite passer in the NFL, and he has a big jump to make after the Bears won only three games last season. The defense also remains a mess, with the untimely firing of defensive coordinator Alan Williams early this season.

Why they will: The Bengals came just short of reaching their second consecutive Super Bowl last season. The elite offense is arguably better, retaining all their key skill players and adding left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. to protect Joe Burrow's blindside. The defense is also on the upswing, finishing sixth in points allowed last year under coordinator Lou Anarumo.

Why they won't: The team had to make some sacrifices to afford an extension for Burrow, losing both safeties and cornerback Eli Apple, among other complementary pieces. Burrow's calf injury suffered in training camp has also clearly hindered him, and put the team well behind early this season.

Why they will: Deshaun Watson has had an offseason and full training camp to get fully comfortable in the Browns offense after struggling last season. The team helped him with multiple additions at wideout and still has an elite running game with Nick Chubb, while the defense has plugged holes with the additions of Za'Darius Smith, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Juan Thornhill. The addition of Super Bowl-winning defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz is an intriguing move, as well.

Why they won't: Watson looked lost last season, and his preseason performance hasn't convinced many that he's back to his old form. A shoulder injury could also force Watson to miss significant time.

Why the will: The Cowboys not only return a boatload of talent, but have added to it with proven players like Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore. After moving on from Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas is set to lean on explosive running back Tony Pollard behind an offensive line that remains elite, while the defense is also in great shape with stars like Micah Parsons.

Why they won't: Head coach Mike McCarthy has taken over offensive play calling this season, a move that hasn't led to excitement with his preference for running the ball and vanilla play calling. Dak Prescott has also struggled with injuries in recent seasons, and seemed to regress when he returned from injury last year. The loss of star corner Trevon Diggs has also hindered the defense.

Why they will: Sean Payton is a proven head coach, and inherits a strong defense and offensive weapons. He became known as a quarterback whisperer in his time as an offensive assistant and eventual head coach of the Saints, and could be the perfect hire to fix Russell Wilson.

Why they won't: Is Wilson actually fixable? It's a fair question given how poorly he played last season, and the early results haven't been pretty. A complete overhaul of the roster appears imminent after a slow start to the season.

Why they will: Detroit's offense made a huge leap last season under new coordinator Ben Johnson, and could continue ascending with the addition of running back Jahmyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta. Jared Goff has played some of the best football of his career under Johnson. The defense has also made significant additions, especially in the secondary.

Why they won't: The defense was near the bottom of the league last season, so it will likely take more than just a revamped secondary to fix all the issues.  

Why they will: The Packers return a talented defense and two-headed monster at running back with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Quarterback Jordan Love is inexperienced, but showed great flashes when he took the field last season while Aaron Rodgers was inconsistent for most of the year. The NFC North also looks wide open, without a clear favorite.

Why they won't: Love has big shoes to fill, and very little experience among his receiving weapons. While talented at all three levels, the Packers defense also lacks experience in several areas, particularly in the front seven.

Why they will: New head coach DeMeco Ryans was an acclaimed hire, after leading the elite 49ers defense. He has some exciting young talent to work with, including first-round picks C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson.

Why they won't: Houston has a combined 11 wins over the last three seasons, and can't turn the roster around overnight. Stroud has a very inexperienced crew of weapons around him, while the defense didn't make many major personnel moves to correct performance that's been near the bottom of the league in three consecutive seasons.

Why they will: One year removed from a winning record, the Colts have significant talent remaining on the roster including formerly elite players like Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner, and Shaquille Leonard. Former Eagles assistant Shane Steichen is a promising hire for a team with a young quarterback after helping develop Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.

Why they won't: Steichen's tenure started off on the wrong foot with Jonathan Taylor's absence, followed by Anthony Richardson's injuries. The offensive line struggled last season, and the defensive secondary has taken a hit over the last year.

Why they will: No team took a bigger leap last season than the Jaguars, winning the AFC South following the hire of Doug Pederson. There's more reason for optimism this year with Trevor Lawrence entering his third season with Calvin Ridley as a new target. The defense saw similar improvement last year, with an explosive front seven led by Josh Allen.

Why they won't: There are some reasons for anxiety, including an offense like that lost its starting right tackle. It's also typical for teams to regress the year after big improvement.

Why they will: Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Mahomes is the best quarterback going in the NFL, winning two Super Bowls and making the AFC Championship in every year as a starter. Reid remains arguably the best offensive playcaller in the league. The team has also improved its offensive line, still has Travis Kelce, and returns a solid, young defense.

Why they won't: The AFC is stacked this season, and the Chiefs are dealing with some major concerns to start the year with lack of experience at wide receiver.

Why they will: Vegas is stacked with offensive weapons, including Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow. The pass rush also looks in excellent shape with Maxx Crosby and rookie Tyree Wilson, while the secondary has added veteran leadership with Marcus Peters and Marcus Epps.

Why they won't: New starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo made it to a Super Bowl with San Francisco, but had a far superior supporting cast. The Raiders offensive line has question marks, and the defense has been among the league's worst for the past decade. The Raiders also regressed to six wins last season under head coach Josh McDaniels, and the AFC West could be even more difficult this year.

Why they will: The Chargers have two consecutive winning seasons with Justin Herbert near elite status and a talented roster around him. The return of left tackle Rashawn Slater puts the offensive line in better position, and Herbert has great weapons along with new coordinator Kellen Moore. The defense attempted to address its issues in the run game, and hope for a healthier year from cornerback J.C. Jackson.

Why they won't: Questions about Brandon Staley's prowess as a head coach remain, and the AFC West is one of the toughest divisions in football. Even if the Chargers make the playoffs, they could be tested by a group of strong teams including the Chiefs, Bills, and Dolphins.

Why they will: The Rams are only one year removed from winning the Super Bowl and return a healthy Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald. Sean McVay has already established himself as one of the best coaches in the league before turning 40.

Why they won't: The team's roster is one of the youngest and most unproven in the league, and the lack of depth has shown thus far. Beyond Stafford and Donald, the team has little recognizable talent, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.

Why they will: Miami had an elite offense last season when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, and he returns this season along with elite weapons Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The defense is also expected to be better, with proven defensive mind Vic Fangio running the show and the eventual return of Jalen Ramsey from injury.

Why they won't: Tagovailoa's injury history, particularly with concussion issues, is a major concern. The team is already without left tackle Terron Armstead to start the year, which doesn't help. The defense ranked in the bottom half of the league last season, and it remains to be seen how much of an impact Fangio can have in a short amount of time.

Why they will: Minnesota showed elite offensive ability in head coach Kevin O'Connell's first season, with Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson having outstanding years. The offense could take another step forward with a full season of T.J. Hockenson and the addition of Jordan Addison, while the defense has added talent with Marcus Davenport and Byron Murphy, among others, and are optimistic following the hire of coordinator Brian Flores.

Why they won't: The Vikings are an obvious candidate for regression after finishing last season with a negative point differential, and Justin Jefferson's hamstring injury further complicates their path.

Why they will: Bill Belichick has the best resume in the history of NFL coaches, and he's proven repeatedly that he can develop elite defenses. The offense hasn't done much to improve its talent, but new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien is a clear improvement over last year's staff as he works to develop Mac Jones.

Why they won't: Jones' huge step back last season might not have been a fluke. His development could be further hindered by a lack of great receiving weapons, as the team replaced Jakobi Meyers with only JuJu Smith-Schuster and don't have much of note behind him aside from tight end Hunter Henry and running back Rhamondre Stevenson. 

Why they will: The Saints defense has finished top 10 in points allowed in three consecutive seasons, and the offense could be catching up after signing Derek Carr and adding depth at running back. The quarterback issues are finally answered with Carr, and he has a seemingly blue-chip target in Chris Olave. The path to the playoffs also looks easy in the NFC South.

Why they won't: Carr has been a solid starter for most of his career, but he's rarely shown elite production. After struggling last season, there are questions about his ability and the depth of weapons in New Orleans isn't quite what it was in Las Vegas. 

Why they will: The Giants offense took huge strides under the new coaching staff last season, as Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley had outstanding years. The team added a potential top target in tight end Darren Waller, and the defense could be set to take a step forward if young players like Kayvon Thibodeaux can progress.

Why they won't: It's unclear if the Giants did enough to help Jones, who remains far from an elite passer. The injury histories of Barkley and Waller could cause the offense to unravel quickly, and the defense finished in the bottom half of the league last season. Competing with the Eagles and Cowboys in the NFC East should also be difficult, once again.

Why they will: The Jets defense was at least last season, and the offense was revamped with a host of new players. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers suffered a torn Achilles in Week 1, but hopes to return late in the year.

Why they won't: The loss of Rodgers and return to Zach Wilson at quarterback could be a back breaker for the team. The AFC East is also a very difficult division again, with the Bills and Dolphins looking elite.

Why they will: The defending NFC Champs return most of last year's roster, with elite offensive talent led by Jalen Hurts and a ferocious front seven led by Haason Reddick. Hurts proved he was an elite player throughout last season, and has made major strides in each of his NFL campaigns so far.

Why they won't: The 2023 roster isn't without significant losses, including Miles Sanders, Javon Hargrave, C.J Gardner-Johnson, and Marcus Epps. Other teams also came calling for Philly's offensive and defensive coordinators, who are both now head coaches elsewhere. The changes could make a repeat difficult, especially in the tough NFC East.

Why they will: Pittsburgh finished 9-8 last season despite inconsistent play at quarterback, significant time missed from T.J. Watt, and a defense that had major holes on the second and third levels. The Steelers expect improvement from second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett, and the defense looks better on paper after adding Cole Holcomb, Elandon Roberts, Patrick Peterson, and Joey Porter Jr.

Why they won't: Pickett showed potential last season, but he's far from a sure thing. The offense also remains bland under coordinator Matt Canada and with limited depth. The defensive transition could be painful, especially in the secondary. The AFC North also looks tough, as usual, with Cincinnati and Baltimore favored to finish ahead of the Steelers.

Why they will: Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy was undefeated until the NFC Championship, when he suffered an elbow injury. The 49ers elite defense from last season is mostly back, and could be better after big free agent signing Javon Hargrave. The offense features Christian McCaffrey from the start of the season, and Deebo Samuel is healthy after an injury-plagued year.

Why they won't: Purdy spent the offseason recovering from surgery, and there are questions about his ceiling as a starter. After trading Trey Lance, the team's only viable backup option is former draft back Sam Darnold. The defense could also regress after losing coordinator DeMeco Ryans.

Why they will: Seattle and quarterback Geno Smith were major surprises last season, not missing a beat after trading Russell Wilson. The offense looks even better this year with a young offensive line that's gained a year of experience and first-round wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba added to DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The defense also looks improved, with the additions of Dre'Mont Jones, Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner, and first-round corner Devon Witherspoon.

Why they won't: There remain some doubters about Smith's ability to lead a Super Bowl contender, and the defense has a lot of ground to make up after finishing 25th in points allowed last season. Competing with San Francisco in the NFC West also makes Seattle's path more difficult.

Why they will: The Bucs won the NFC South last season, and many of the players from their Super Bowl run three years ago remain. The team's proven talent include Tristan Wirfs, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Vita Vea, Devin White, Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett, Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, and Antoine Winfield Jr. There's certainly enough talent for the team compete again if they get solid quarterback play.

Why they won't: Baker Mayfield's addition as the starting quarterback doesn't breed confidence after he struggled with the Browns and Panthers. The offense was in shambles for much of last season and have a very young offensive line. There are also questions about the defense, with many of the veterans in the front seven in the decline stage of their careers.

Why they will: The Titans recipe for success remains intact, with Derrick Henry running the ball, a potentially efficient passing game with Ryan Tannehill, and a good front seven. Tennessee added DeAndre Hopkins as a legitimate receiving threat, and got Harold Landry back from injury to help the pass rush.

Why they won't: The offensive line looks shaky with many new faces, and the secondary is also questionable after struggling last season. While Ryan Tannehill played hurt last season, there's some concern about his decline last year.

Why they will: Washington has excellent talent on both sides of the ball, and have talked up the ability of second-year quarterback Sam Howell. The offense already seems more exciting with new coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the offense has plenty of weapons. The defense finished seventh in points allowed last year, with elite talent up front. 

Why they won't: There are big questions about Howell, as well as the offensive line blocking for him. The Commanders seemingly have little margin for error in the tough NFC East, and the offensive line doesn't have much time to mold together in a division with outstanding pass rushers.