Why ex-NFL scout gives Southern Cal's Caleb Williams a second-round evaluation

Daniel Kelly spent four years in pro scouting with the New York Jets. He is the published author of the book "Whatever It Takes," the story of a fan making it into the NFL. 

If you read my last column ranking the top seven quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft, you probably noticed the omission of Southern California's Caleb Williams. Based on my evaluation of all his 2022 game film, he didn't make my first-round cut. I view him as a second-rounder. 

Yes, I know Broncos head coach Sean Payton has called Williams a "generational player." I also know an anonymous NFL general manager told ESPN's Matt Miller that Williams is "Patrick Mahomes"— the ultimate compliment for a quarterback. 

Now, I'm not saying Williams — the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner — isn't a worthy draft pick. Far from it. What I am saying is that, after studying every one of his snaps from last season on film, his NFL ceiling now is a 9-8 starting quarterback. That's OK, but not the otherworldly status some have given him.

The main reason for my evaluation is Williams' inconsistency.

Transitioning to the pros is enormously difficult for most quarterbacks. For every Joe Burrow, who won a national title at LSU and seamlessly adapted to the NFL, there's a Johnny Manziel. At Texas A&M, "Johnny Football" won a Heisman Trophy and played big-time competition — he beat a great Alabama team — but he quickly flamed out in the NFL after his first-round selection by the Browns.

Myriad off-the-field issues hampered Manziel, of course, but it was clear almost from the start of his NFL career that the game was too big for him. In the NFL, defenses are much faster and far more complex than any a college QB plays against.

In the NFL, consistency from a quarterback is essential. And that's where I have a problem with Williams. He's simply not consistent enough now to excel in the league. 

With his elite athleticism, Williams often looks like a magician on the field, but his full body of work isn't as impressive as you may think. Here are my top three concerns: 

1. Tendency to hold the ball too long in the pocket 

Williams looks like two different QBs. On half his dropbacks, he sets his feet and gets the ball out of his hand quickly with precision placement. The average NFL release time is two to 2.9 seconds. Williams can do that.

But then there are the times he becomes indecisive and starts moving around instead, as illustrated by these numbers from last season. Most of these attempts were not designed runs.

• 113 rushing attempts (3.4 average)
• 30 sacks  

For perspective, 2023 first-round QBs C.J. Stroud carried 47 times, Bryce Young rushed 49 times and Anthony Richardson had 103 attempts rushing last season. 

Why was Williams scrambling so much with an offensive line that was graded third in the country by Pro Football Focus heading into last season? 

2. Downfield ball placement

QBs rely on three-, five- and seven-step dropbacks in the pocket to coordinate the timing of their passes with receivers. Because Williams' footwork is all over the place in the pocket, coupled with a tendency to lock in with targets, his accuracy is a concern. 

In 14 games last season, Williams threw five interceptions and defenders managed 35 pass breakups (2.5 per game). This is better than 2022 figures for Utah's Cameron Rising (3.4) and South Carolina's Spencer Rattler (2.83), the same as Texas' Quinn Ewers (2.5) and worse than Florida State's Jordan Travis (2.46), Washington State's Cameron Ward (2.38) and North Carolina's Drake Maye (1.92). All those QBs I gave first-round grades.