Why Falcons could determine if Panthers, Buccaneers win NFC South title

Heading into the "Monday Night Football" game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Rams, NFL fans wouldn't have been blamed for assuming that the champions of the NFC South would be determined when the 7-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the 8-8 Carolina Panthers this coming Saturday.

However, the eliminated Falcons added themselves to the conversation by notching an upset 27-24 prime-time win over the Rams that improved Atlanta to 7-9. Following the game, Saad Yousuf of The Athletic explained what would happen if the Falcons, Panthers and Buccaneers all ended Week 18 at 8-9.

Who wins the NFC South in the event of a three-way tie?

"The Panthers swept the Falcons 2-0 in the season series and split with the Bucs for a 3-1 record against the other two teams," Yousuf wrote. "The Bucs split with the Panthers and the Falcons, giving them a 2-2 record. The Falcons went 1-3 against the Bucs and Panthers. In that scenario, the Panthers would win the division despite the Week 18 loss."

Carolina could put such discussions to bed by defeating the Buccaneers at Tampa Bay's Raymond James Stadium to reach nine wins on Saturday. If the Bucs win that game, though, they'll need help from a New Orleans Saints side that will play at the 7-9 Falcons on Sunday afternoon. While the Saints have been eliminated for weeks, they have won four straight contests to go from 2-10 to 6-10.

As Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio pointed out, the Buccaneers will win the division if they beat the Panthers and New Orleans defeats Atlanta because Tampa Bay has the tiebreaker advantage via record against common opponents. The Bucs lost to the Panthers back in Week 16. 

When is the last time a three-way tie happened in the NFL?

According to Florio, a divisional three-way tie hasn't happened in the NFL since the 2011 season. Then, the 8-8 Denver Broncos won the AFC West over the 8-8 San Diego Chargers and the 8-8 Oakland Raiders. 

In short, casual football fans hoping for some drama should find themselves rooting for the Buccaneers to topple the Panthers on the first Saturday of 2026.