Why Geno Smith deal doesn't take Raiders out of Shedeur Sanders draft conversations

Some analysts suggested the Las Vegas Raiders could make Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders the sixth overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, partly because recently acquired Geno Smith hadn't yet received a contract extension from the Raiders. 

That changed on Thursday when reports claimed that Smith and the Raiders had agreed to a two-year, $85.5M extension, including $66.5M guaranteed.

On Friday, Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio shared how the exact details of Smith's deal leave the door slightly cracked regarding the Raiders possibly drafting Sanders. 

"Per a source with knowledge of the terms," Florio explained, "Smith’s 2025 compensation increased from $31M to $40M. ...The contract carries $58.5M fully guaranteed at signing. That said, the Raiders could still pull the plug or trade the contract after one season. Since [Smith] presumably wouldn’t play in 2026 for total compensation of $18.5M, the Raiders could ultimately owe him nothing beyond the $40M he’ll make in 2025."

Smith earned NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award honors for the 2022 season while playing under current Raiders head coach Pete Carroll in Seattle. More recently, Smith finished the 2024 regular season ranked fourth in the NFL with 4,320 passing yards. 

However, Pro Football Reference shows that the signal-caller, who turns 35 in October, also ended Week 18 ranked 22nd among qualified players with a 53.8 adjusted QBR. Only two quarterbacks tossed more interceptions than Smith (15 picks over 17 games) for the season. 

These numbers show why some are convinced that Raiders minority owner Tom Brady, who already has a relationship with Sanders, doesn't want to commit to Smith beyond the 2025 season. 

While things can change, it appears that the Cleveland Browns (pick No. 2) and New York Giants (No. 3) both have Colorado wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter and Penn State pass-rusher Abdul Carter ranked ahead of Sanders on their draft boards. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots (No. 4) and Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 5) aren't spending first-round choices on a quarterback this spring. 

Thus, Sanders could be there for the Raiders at No. 6 unless a quarterback-needy team leapfrogs Las Vegas in the draft order for the right to grab the polarizing prospect.