Why keeping Justin Fields is the Bears' best chance at a franchise QB

Despite frenzied trade speculation that reached a fever pitch around the March 13th start of the 2024 NFL league year, Fields hasn't been moved yet.  

The Bears' overall objective often feels lost in the vortex of a rumor mill approaching hyperspeed. Their goal is not to get the best return for Fields or turn another first-round pick into a pick bonanza, but to maximize the chances of finding a star quarterback who will stabilize the position for years.  

That is the only objective the Bears are (or should be) focused on.  

Viewed from that lens, keeping Fields and drafting a QB feels more like an opportunity and less like a burden.

History shows that even with the No. 1 pick, the chances of the Bears drafting a quarterback who turns out to be a long-term starter are around 50/50 at best. 

Before last year's draft, Warren Sharp looked at all first-round QB selections since 2011 and found that only one has won a Super Bowl, only six made the conference championship game, and only 39 percent earned a second contract.

If NFL teams can't reliably predict the potential quality of QBs, they would be wise to take an approach that focuses on quantity.  

From Tom Brady to Brock Purdy to Aaron Rodgers to Patrick Mahomes, football history is filled with teams rewarded for adding a QB even when they already had a "starter."

An era of instant QB gratification continues to rule the league despite no proven track record justifying the approach. Only 10 rookies started week 1 in the 1980s and 1990s combined — five each decade. Last year alone, three rookies started Week 1.

Only five of the last 25 Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks started the first game of their rookie year: Peyton Manning (twice), Russell Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Matthew Stafford.  

Brady, Mahomes and Rodgers combined for a single rookie start (Mahomes in a meaningless Week 17 game).

Whether by design or circumstance, the longer Fields stays in Chicago, the closer the Bears are to choosing the path that maximizes their opportunity to find a long-term answer at QB.  D

rafting a QB and redshirting him or letting him develop at his own pace is a proven method for success. The biggest arguments against this approach are that it could cause locker-room problems and that there are a limited amount of snaps available with the first-team offense. 

While those possibilities exist, a group of grown men getting paid immense sums of money to play a game should be able to handle those issues. They didn't stunt the growth of Mahomes, Brady or Rodgers.

Perhaps a deal for Fields is imminent, and the Bears will follow the one-at-a-time model that has shown limited success yet appears more popular than ever.

But if keeping Fields is part of the Bears' plan, don't knock it as crazy; accept it as them following a proven path to finding a long-term answer at quarterback.