Why Patriots have a clear path to winning AFC East

The New England Patriots (5-2) are atop the AFC East. It seems strange to claim that the Patriots, who were 4-13 last season, can maintain their AFC East lead over the Buffalo Bills (4-2), who have won the division for five straight seasons.

But there are plenty of reasons to believe in head coach Mike Vrabel's crew. The main one lies in New England's regular-season schedule. Compared to years past, it is quite easy. Here's why New England's door to win the AFC East is gaping open.

A 5-1 divisional record is possible

Four of the Pats' 11 remaining games are divisional matchups against the Jets (twice), Dolphins and Bills. The Patriots defeated Miami in Week 2 by just six points, but the promising play of quarterback Drake Maye (nine touchdowns, one interception) and the defense (17.2 average points allowed) since the narrow victory shows that they have gotten better, while the Dolphins (1-6) have only gotten worse. A multiple-possession win is likely.

New England hasn't played New York yet, but that should also be a breeze. The Jets are 0-7. The hardest remaining divisional game will be against Buffalo. In Week 5, led by Maye, New England won 23-20. But if a few plays had gone in Buffalo's favor, the outcome could have been much different. 

When the two meet again in Week 15, it will be anyone's game to win. If the Patriots win the easy games, at worst, they will finish 5-1 within their division. 

The hardest games on the schedule are manageable 

The Falcons (3-3) and Buccaneers (5-2) will be New England's hardest games, but winning both is not out of the question. 

Tampa's defense is weak, allowing the sixth-most passing touchdowns (13), eighth-most passing yards (1,767) and recording just two interceptions through seven games. Atlanta's defense is strong, but its offense is not. Atlanta has scored the third-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (11), and signal-caller Michael Penix Jr. has tossed for a mediocre 1,409 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. 

Because the Patriots are also imperfect, the most likely outcome is that New England goes 1-1 against Tampa Bay and Atlanta, but the opportunity is there to go 2-0.

Unpredictability may work in Patriots' favor 

The Patriots will play the Giants in Week 13 and the Ravens in Week 16. Giants rookie QB Jaxson Dart is still settling into his starting role. He has flashed potential (791 yards, seven touchdowns in four starts) but has also struggled (two losses, three interceptions).

Will Dart have improved when he travels to Foxborough in December? The answer to that question may determine who wins the game, but for now, the Patriots are the favorite.

The Ravens (1-5) have battled injuries all season. Top names like QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) and linebacker Roquan Smith (hamstring) have been out for several weeks, and their absence is a main reason why the team is last in the AFC North. 

If, when they face the Patriots, the Ravens are still battling injuries to key pieces, the game will be a lot easier for the Patriots. Baltimore's injury status will be something New England fans should follow in the upcoming weeks. 

What will New England's final record be?

If the "easy" games (Jets twice, Dolphins, Bengals and Browns) are considered guaranteed wins, the Patriots' floor is at 10 wins. If the Patriots eke out a win against the Falcons or Buccaneers and the unpredictable nature of the Giants or Ravens games works in New England's favor, the Patriots could easily finish the season at 12-5.