Why Raiders RB Josh Jacobs could regress in fantasy this season

Although Raiders running back Josh Jacobs led the NFL in rushing last season with 1,653 yards in 17 games, fantasy football owners shouldn't select the 25-year-old with their first-round pick.

Historically, RBs with high usage rates, like Jacobs, have struggled to reproduce similar numbers the following season.  

"There have only been four running backs since 2006 who have had more than 330 rushing attempts and 50 receptions. Jacobs, Steven Jackson (2006), LaDainian Tomlinson (2006) and DeMarco Murray (2014) are all on that list," wrote ESPN's Eric Moody. "You might be wondering if those three running backs regressed the next year. Absolutely. Jackson's fantasy points per game dropped by 10.0. Tomlinson's dropped by 7.0. Murray's dropped by 10.0."

Last season, the Pro Bowler scored 328.3 fantasy points in ESPN PPR (points per reception) leagues, third among RBs and 10th among all offensive players. This season, however, he's projected to score 249.5 points.

Jacobs – who signed a one-year, $11.8M deal on Saturday – held out of training camp and the preseason. Consequently, he might have some rust and need time to regain speed.

"It's going to be hard for me to say that until I have an opportunity to see him,"  Las Vegas head coach Josh McDaniels said of Jacobs' regular-season workload following a 31-16 loss to the Cowboys on Saturday. "His conditioning and how his body feels obviously will play a role in that, too."

Jacobs is still an RB1 candidate since ESPN fantasy rated him as the third-best player at the position. Yet, selecting him over a running back such as Los Angeles' Austin Ekeler is rash, because Ekler's the No. 1 back and projected to score 273.9 points.

Since too many trends suggest that Jacobs will regress this season, he shouldn't be the top RB on fantasy managers' draft boards.