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Why Ravens' Lamar Jackson should be MVP favorite
Following Buffalo's upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11, Bills QB Josh Allen dethroned Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson as the betting favorite for NFL MVP on ESPN Bet.
Allen (+150) remains the favorite as of Friday, but Jackson (+260) is playing at a considerably higher level than any other quarterback and deserves to be the MVP front-runner.
Here are five stats that show why Jackson should be the leading candidate for MVP.
9.0 TD/INT ratio
With 27 touchdown passes and just three interceptions, Jackson has reached a historic level of passing efficiency. His 9.0 TD/INT ratio ties Tom Brady (2010) for the ninth-best season ratio in NFL history.
Perhaps even more unbelievable, there's a compelling argument that none of Jackson's three interceptions this season are his fault (each deflected off a receiver's hands before being intercepted).
Lamar Jackson’s 3 interceptions this year: pic.twitter.com/VuIRw1r58o
— Kyle (@ImKyleMangum) November 18, 2024
114.6 Passing EPA
One of the more reliable methods of encapsulating a QBs value is through Expected Points Added (EPA), a metric that "defines the value of each play by the effect it has on the offense's likelihood to score," according to Pro Football Focus.
Jackson doesn't just lead the league in Passing EPA. He blows the competition out of the water.
The gap between Jackson (114.6, league best) and Lions QB Jared Goff (76.1, second best) in EPA is 6.6 points larger than the gap between Goff and Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield (44.2, ninth best), according to Next Gen Stats.
Jackson's 0.29 EPA per dropback is the most by a qualifying passer (minimum 14 attempts per game) in a season since Aaron Rodgers (0.31) in 2020, when he won MVP honors with the Green Bay Packers. Five of the past six MVP winners led qualifying passers in EPA per dropback during their respective seasons.
117.9 passer rating
Jackson's 117.9 passer rating is the second-highest mark by any player in a season in the past 10 years, trailing just Rodgers in 2020 (121.5). It tops his previous career-high season passer rating of 113.3 in 2019, Jackson's first MVP-winning season.
In Baltimore's 41-10 rout of the Denver Broncos in Week 9, Jackson posted his fourth career perfect passer rating (158.3), tying the NFL record for most in a career. He has a above-average 100 or better passer rating in nine of his past 10 starts.
8.9 passing yards per attempt
Baltimore's late bye week (Week 14) is heavily assisting in Jackson's narrow league lead in passing yards (3,053), but he also leads the league in passing yards per attempt — an irrefutably impressive feat. Jackson's 8.9 yards per attempt are the most in his career, surpassing his 2023 mark (8.0) that helped him earn his second MVP award.
He's on pace to finish the season with 4,325 passing yards, which would annihilate his current career high of 3,678 yards.
599 rushing yards
Despite having Derrick Henry, one of the league's most dominant running backs of this century operating in his backfield, Jackson leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 599. He's on pace to finish the season with 849 yards rushing, which would be his most since 2020.
Jackson, whose team is 8-4, is incredibly consistent rushing, accruing at least 30 rushing yards in all but two games this season. His 5.8 yards per carry rank fourth among all qualified rushers (minimum 6.25 rushes per game) this season, trailing Philadelphia RB Saquon Barkley (6.2), teammate Henry (6.0) and Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs (6.0), according to NFL Pro.
On Sunday in Baltimore, Jackson will showcase his skills against the Eagles (9-2).
More must-reads:
- Fantasy Football start 'em, sit 'em: Will Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa's cold weather struggles continue in Week 13?
- Derrick Henry has perfect response to Khalil Mack’s comments
- The 'Most career NFL rushing touchdowns' quiz
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TODAY'S BEST
Ranking the five worst NFL QB situations
Quarterback is the most important position in the NFL — possibly the most important position in sports. Teams with inferior quarterback rooms don't stand much of a chance to compete in 2025, so it could be a long year for these five organizations. (QB situations are ranked in inverse order.) 5. New York Jets QBs: Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, Adrian Martinez, Brady Cook The Jets were happy to rid themselves of Aaron Rodgers this offseason, but Fields isn't much of an upgrade. The 2021 first-round pick has a completion percentage of 61.1 percent in the NFL, and he's thrown for only 45 touchdowns in 44 career starts (plus 31 interceptions). Fields, who went 4-2 with the Pittsburgh Steelers last season, is reportedly struggling in training camp, which is nothing new based on his first four years in the NFL. New Jets coach Aaron Glenn recently was asked if he was concerned about Fields' play. "I don’t because it’s early," he said. Expect the Jets — who open at home Sept. 7 against Rodgers' Steelers — to be one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league this season. 4. Tennessee Titans QBs: Cam Ward, Brandon Allen, Tim Boyle, Will Levis (IR) The Titans are a tough team to rank heading into the season. Ward, the No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft, has the potential to become a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. But it's much more likely that the rookie struggles to adjust to NFL speed in the first few months of the season. The good news for Ward is that expectations are low for his first year in the NFL and he plays for a franchise off the radar. "You've probably seen that there's not enough focus on him being the first pick or whatever," Ward's father, Calvin, told Fox Sports' Ben Arthur in a story published Monday. "He honestly does not care. That's the honest truth. He doesn't care. "He just wants to work, get better, help his team improve." This season is more about getting Ward valuable reps and him improving with each start. The Titans better hope Ward stays healthy, because Allen and Boyle aren't NFL-caliber quarterbacks. 3. Indianapolis Colts QBs: Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, Riley Leonard, Jason Bean The Richardson experiment is a catastrophe for the Colts. The fourth overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft completed just 47.7 percent of his pass attempts last season and threw more interceptions (12) than touchdowns (eight). His rocket arm and athletic ability near the goal line are still tantalizing, but none of that will matter until he learns how to hit a five-yard slant consistently. Richardson suffered an ugly-looking finger injury during the first quarter of the Browns' preseason opener. If the backup plan for Richardson is Jones, who is 24-44-1 in his career, this offense could be a trainwreck. 2. Cleveland Browns QBs: Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, Tyler Huntley, Deshaun Watson (IR) Cleveland's quarterback room is a mess. Watson, who won't play this season because of a torn Achilles, carries a $35.9M cap hit in 2025 and an $80.7M cap hit in 2026. With Watson out, the Browns signed 40-year-old Flacco, traded for Pickett and added Sanders and Gabriel in the 2025 NFL Draft. As if that wasn't enough, the Browns recently signed Huntley to give themselves five active quarterbacks. Good luck predicting how the snaps shake out this season, but it won't be pretty. In May, an anonymous NFL executive said of Cleveland's QB situation: "I look at their (quarterback) room and I don’t know what they’re doing." 1. New Orleans Saints QBs: Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener, Hunter Dekkers With Derek Carr retiring, the Saints could start a 25-year-old, oft-injured rookie at quarterback this season. Or perhaps New Orleans will go with Rattler or Haener, who combined to go 148-for-267 (55.4 percent) with five touchdown passes and six interceptions last season. Rattler may have the upper hand now, but he's not going to excite New Orleans fans, who endured a 5-12 2024 season. Rookie head coach Kellen Moore, a former NFL backup QB, has his hands full with this uninspiring QB room.
Gap between star WR Terry McLaurin, Commanders revealed
As of Thursday morning, the Washington Commanders and Terry McLaurin remained in a contract stalemate after the 29-year-old wide receiver in the final year of his current deal requested a trade. During Thursday's edition of the ESPN "Get Up" program, NFL insider Jeremy Fowler noted that the Commanders and McLaurin are locked in "a classic standoff" as McLaurin allegedly looks to secure "parts" of the five-year, $150M deal that the Pittsburgh Steelers gave DK Metcalf this past March. "They have been far apart," Fowler said about the negotiations between the Commanders and McLaurin, as shared by Joseph Zucker of Bleacher Report. "...[McLaurin] has wanted metrics of the DK Metcalf contract, which is $32M. I'm told the Washington Commanders have only been slightly above where he was before, which is $23M. So take that gap, that's $7M to 8M that they have to bridge." Fowler added that Washington "has got some calls about McLaurin" this summer because "there's some interest league-wide" in learning whether or not the wideout could become available. For what it's worth, numerous reporters have said since McLaurin went public with his trade request that he likely won't go anywhere before Washington opens the season with a home game against the New York Giants on Sept. 7. ESPN's John Keim mentioned that Washington's joint practice with the New England Patriots on Wednesday showed that the Commanders "need McLaurin back on the field" as soon as possible. That's understandable, as McLaurin recorded team highs of 117 targets, 82 receptions and 1,096 receiving yards to help quarterback Jayden Daniels become the Offensive Rookie of the Year for the 2024 season. Additionally, McLaurin finished the 2024 campaign ranked second in the entire NFL with 13 touchdown catches. As of Thursday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook continued to list a Washington team coming off a trip to this year's NFC Championship Game sixth among the betting favorites at +1800 odds to win Super Bowl LX. Perhaps Wednesday's joint practice will spark more positive conversations between McLaurin's camp and the Commanders that will result in the playmaker rejoining summer practices as soon as early next week.
Carlos Alcaraz Sends Huge Warning to the Rest of the Tour Regarding his Rivalry with Jannik Sinner
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce might be making major moves in Cleveland Heights
First Travis Kelce went Instagram official with Taylor Swift, and now this! The star couple might be looking to take another big step in their relationship. The New York Post reports that Swift and Kelce have "toured at least two homes in Cleveland’s Eastside suburbs in June." The outlet speculated that this area could "potentially boast the perfect home for a post-NFL retirement." The two were spotted having lunch together in Ohio this summer at JoJo's Bar in Chagrin Falls, with eagle-eyed fans noticing that the singer was even wearing her merchandise. The manager of JoJo's Bar spoke with PEOPLE at the time about Kelce and Swift's lunch date. "Taylor and Travis came in and had a wonderful time," John Ponyicky told the outlet. "They had a great lunch, enjoyed our food, and were really impressed with the team. Travis grew up in Cleveland Heights, so he decided to visit somewhere he was familiar with. He and Taylor were both really pleasant. They sat at the bar for a bit, but also had a private lunch in a private room." Kelce is very proud of his hometown, so it makes sense that he would always want to make sure he has a place to go back to there. However, including Swift in this decision proves that he is building a future with her.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson already dealing with another setback
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson’s 2025 campaign is already off to a rocky start. Richardson suffered a dislocated finger in the first quarter of the Colts' preseason opener against the Baltimore Ravens. The injury happened on a sack from David Ojabo, and while Richardson was able to walk off the field, the Colts quickly ruled him out for the rest of the game. Richardson completed two of three passes for 21 yards before being replaced by Daniel Jones. The setback continues the unfortunate trend for the young QB, whose NFL career has been repeatedly disrupted by injuries. Selected fourth by Indianapolis in the 2023 NFL Draft, he entered the league with rare traits that made many teams covet his skills. In his rookie year, he showed flashes of solid play, with three passing touchdowns and four rushing TDs. However, Richardson's rookie year was limited to just four games. He missed a game due to a concussion, then suffered a season-ending shoulder injury. Richardson returned in 2024 with a lot of expectations, but he once again struggled to stay on the field. After starting the first four games of the season, he missed two weeks with an oblique injury. He returned for two more games before infamously getting benched for two games. Richardson got another chance and had inconsistent performances in five games, going 3-2 over that span. Injuries once again reared their ugly head, and he missed the final two games of the season. He still managed to provide some memorable plays, but ultimately, he finished the 2024 season with only 1,814 passing yards, eight passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions while completing 47.4% of his throws in 11 games. In the offseason, Richardson also struggled with another shoulder injury that kept him out of minicamp. The team added Jones to compete for the starting job, and now with Richardson only managing three throws in the first preseason game, it appears that the former Giants QB has a chance to gain the lead in the battle. For Richardson, the injury comes at the worst time.
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