Why Rome Odunze could lead the NFL in contested catches in 2025

This contested catch in the red zone was particularly impressive.

Johnson had high praise this morning for Odunze and the role he will play in the Bears offense.

"To me, he fits that prototypical X receiver where you can line him up outside the numbers and provided he gets a one-on-one with a corner, he's going to win most of his matchups. Slant routes, stop routes, go routes, you know the whole route tree outside the numbers and that's what I've seen from him so far. He's a really detailed route runner. I think he had a route yesterday in one-on-ones that was really impressive, he's looking one way, breaks the other way, and really snaps it off for a sharp cut."

"And when you have a long guy that can win contested catches and torque down the field and all that, but yet still can drop his weight and get into and out of routes like he can, that's really a unique skill set that we're going to look to capitalize on."

As I shared in my prediction why Odunze is primed for a breakout season, he had a true catch rate of 91.5% on catchable targets last season, second only to Raiders tight end Brock Bowers at 91.6% among rookies.

I also highlighted his high contested catch rate. He shined at the University of Washington in 2023 with a 75% contested catch rate and led the FBS with 21 contested catches. And he didn't miss a beat last season in transferring that skillset to the NFL.

Odunze caught 13 of 18 contested targets in 2024. This equates to a NFL-best 72.2% contested catch rate among the 69 wide receivers and tight ends who had 15 or more contested targets.

The Top 12 wide receivers and tight ends in contested catch rate for 2024 regular season (minimum 15 targets):

• Rome Odunze - 72.2%
• George Kittle - 70.6%
• Terry McLaurin - 70.6%
• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 66.7%
• Jakobi Myers - 66.7%
• Christian Watson - 66.7%
• Romeo Doubs - 64.7%
• Amari Cooper - 64.7%
• Mike Evans - 63.2%
• TJ Hockenson - 62.5%
• Jauan Jennings - 62.5%
• Travis Kelce - 62.5%

The Top 12 wide receivers and tight ends who had the most contested catches in 2024:

• Terry McLaurin - 24
• Drake London - 22
• Amon-Ra St. Brown - 20
• Jauan Jennings - 20
• Courtland Sutton - 20
• CeeDee Lamb - 18
• Malik Nabers - 18
• Wan'Dale Robinson - 17
• Justin Jefferson -17
• Brock Bowers - 16
• Marvin Harrison Jr. - 16
• Jakobi Myers - 16

What's interesting is that Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown appears on both lists. He was targeted 31 times on contested catches, 13 more than Odunze was last season. McLaurin, who topped the list with the most contested catches, was targeted 34 times.

Odunze's lower targets were primarily a function of his WR3 status last season. As he ascends into the WR2 role this season, I would expect his targets to increase overall and especially contested targets.

We can assume from St. Brown's usage in Detroit that when Johnson has someone with an elite contested catch ability, he's going to encourage his quarterback, Caleb Williams, to target him more. Especially in the red zone, where Odunze's height, vertical leap ability, length and large catch radius are a massive advantage.

Will Odunze lead the NFL in both contested catches and contested catch rate in 2025? It's possible in a Ben Johnson offense. If he had 35 contested targets in 2024, he would have topped the contested catch list. Assuming he sustains his high contested catch rate, and can get close to double the contested targets in 2025, he has a very good chance.

Of course, Odunze will be competing for targets among a very talented set of weapons which also includes wide receivers DJ Moore and Luther Burden III and tight ends Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet. So he could fall short if he doesn't quite get enough contested targets. Even so, Odunze should be close with the increase in contested targets he can expect to see this season.