Why SI Analyst Sees Baker’s Dozen Wins for the Chiefs

Wednesday night’s schedule release did absolutely nothing. Like a Cold War staredown, the top four teams in the AFC don’t appear to have lost anything in their arms race. That’s why one Sports Illustrated analyst sees the same Final Four when the conference dust settles in January.

Kansas City and Buffalo will both finish 13-4, Baltimore 12-5 and Houston 10-7. Those are the top four AFC win predictions by Matt Verderame.

“Kansas City routinely plays one of the more challenging schedules in the league,” Verderame wrote Wednesday, “and this year is no exception. While the AFC South provides a nice respite, the Chiefs will host the Broncos, Chargers, Eagles, Lions, Ravens and Commanders, all playoff teams from a year ago. On the road, the slate is much easier, although a trip to Buffalo awaits.”

That trip to Buffalo in Week 9 (Sunday, Nov. 2, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) could very well decide home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. And part of why the Chiefs routinely face one of the league’s more challenging dockets is because that visit to Highmark Stadium will mark their third in as many seasons, including the 2023 playoffs.

Reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have won four consecutive regular-season games over the Chiefs, including last year’s regular-season contest in Buffalo. However, Kansas City has taken the last four postseason meetings, including the 2024 AFC Championship.

All four of those AFC powers will play each other for a second straight season. The good news for the Chiefs is that two of their three games against those teams are at Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City begins that brutal round-robin in Week 4 when Lamar Jackson and Baltimore come to town on Sept. 28. The Chiefs then visit Buffalo in Week 9 and host C.J. Stroud and Houston in Week 14 on Sunday Night Football.

Verderame predicts a bit of cannibalism in the AFC West, with the Broncos finishing 11-6, the Chargers 9-8 and the Raiders 6-11. Unlike one national voice, Verderame sees Denver presenting the biggest challenge to the Chiefs. And as for the Raiders, the combination of division games, Jayden Daniels, Dak Prescott and the Super Bowl champion Eagles doesn’t bode well.

“The Raiders have a new look with coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith, but is it enough to improve?” Verderame asked. “Las Vegas has the help of a last-place schedule, giving them games against the Browns, Patriots and Bears. Not as much help as usual. The division is also a gauntlet, with the Chiefs, Broncos and Chargers coming off playoff appearances. Add in the NFC East, and the Raiders will have to exceed all expectations for a playoff run.”

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