Why the 2017 draft will haunt the Jaguars

Over the past two years, 13 teams made quarterback changes or significant future investments at the position. Half of the AFC signed a starter, traded for one or selected a passer on Day 1 or Day 2 of the draft.

The teams that landed the top two available veteran signal-callers this offseason, Washington and Minnesota, reside atop their respective divisions. A franchise that was seemingly in the same boat is not faring as well. Jacksonville’s illogical decision to stand by Blake Bortles, avoiding pursuits of Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins, brings its contention trajectory to a crisis point.

The Jags' offseason decision to extend Bortles' contract has drawn rampant mockery, and now a would-be AFC power is paying for its choices made a year earlier.

Both the Chiefs and Texans are likely set up long term because of forward-thinking moves during the 2017 draft – each sacrificing prime assets to land quarterbacks. The Jaguars had a more obvious issue than either team, but their actions then could make the 2017 breakthrough season a fluky one-off rather than the start of a lengthy run.

Picking fourth overall in that draft, the Jaguars didn’t need to trade up to select Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes. They didn’t recognize incredibly valuable real estate, despite obvious signs. The Bears, Chiefs, Texans, Jets, Bills, Cardinals and Ravens all moved up for hopeful long-term signal-caller solutions in the past two drafts. None of these teams possessed the defensive foundation the Jaguars did.

While not all of these franchises' moves look great, the Jags' inaction leaves them trapped.
Bortles’ stock nose-dived in 2016. General manager Dave Caldwell said after firing Gus Bradley in December of that year that the next Jags head coach wouldn’t be required to start Bortles. The 2014 and '15 interception leader threw 16 picks in 2016. He ranked 28th among 30 qualified quarterbacks in Total QBR for a 3-13 Jags team, dragging down the No. 6 total defense and affecting the Sunday moods of Allen Robinson fantasy owners.

Calling Jacksonville’s decision to select Leonard Fournette at No. 4 in the 2017 draft ill-advised isn’t a hindsight-driven argument. It was weird in the moment to see the Jags stay the Bortles course and pick up his fifth-year option. Of the trio of running backs taken in the top five of the past three drafts, Fournette is behind Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley — considerably so via the eye test — and has played just 45 snaps this season. As usual, teams showed high-caliber backs can be added much later (Alvin Kamara and Kareem Hunt being that year's examples).

Mahomes’ rapid predraft rise still didn’t end with the then-raw passer viewed as worthy of a top-five slot. It’s not certain the Jaguars worked him out, but that obviously would have made sense. They did visit with Watson.

But Jacksonville passing on Watson and Mahomes at No. 4 and/or not executing a trade-down maneuver into a spot that would have still given the franchise access to one of them prior to the Chiefs and Texans swooping in at Nos. 10 and 12, wasn’t scrutinized too much at the time. The Jags were 3-13 and had hovered off the radar since midway through the Jack Del Rio regime.

The subsequent 10-6 season and AFC Championship Game appearance thrust the franchise into an unexpected spotlight. It became apparent what Bortles could damage, and the success hurt Jacksonville's chances of finding a replacement a year later. Losing to the Patriots and obtaining the No. 29 pick placed the Jags hopelessly behind other quarterback-needy teams.

The events of 2018 reinforce how much the previous year’s oversight stings.
Bortles underwent wrist surgery in late January, presumably putting him on track to fail an early-March physical tied to his fifth-year option. His $19 million salary would’ve been guaranteed had he done so, and instead of pursuing Smith or Cousins or even Tyrod Taylor, the Jags preemptively took themselves out of the QB market. A three-year, $54M extension made the option physical moot. This may have been the Jaguars' plan all along, but they took a weird route to the destination.

Possible arguments for doubling down on Bortles: The Jaguars have better information on him than anyone else, and he’d just come within a Myles Jack fumble recovery being correctly officiated of being the most improbable Super Bowl quarterback since Rex Grossman.

But the Jaguars making no real effort to bring in competition — either in the 2018 draft, when they took current practice squad QB Tanner Lee in the sixth round, or in free agency — was inexcusable. They’ve gotten worse at the backup spot, too. Cody Kessler is a downgrade from Chad Henne.

Both Mahomes and Watson recently led their teams to comfortable victories over the free-falling Jaguars. Mahomes is the MVP front-runner, and Watson's five-TD-pass showing against Miami Thursday night increased Houston's AFC South lead. While placing Mahomes on the Jaguars wouldn’t generate the results reality has, with Andy Reid serving as a perfect conductor, he’d be the Jags’ starter. So would Watson. Perhaps defenders — both foreign and domestic — wouldn’t be taking thinly veiled shots at Jacksonville’s quarterback if one of those two lived in north Florida.

The Jags are stuck. Their possible title window that was opened by a still-high-end defense is in peril. A painful glance at the Broncos reveals what a horrendous quarterback situation can do to a great defense's capabilities. Two years of quarterback apathy places the Jags on that path.

In 2019, they may have to throw franchise-QB money at Teddy Bridgewater or be Ryan Tannehill's parachute. Even that may be difficult.

After years of immense cap space allowed top-market deals with defender mercenaries, the Jags are projected to be $7M over the 2019 salary ceiling. That’s currently the NFL’s worst cap situation, limiting flexibility to add a veteran QB. A $16.5M dead-money figure attached to Bortles isn't great, either. (And six months out, the prospective 2019 rookie quarterback crop is not exactly teeming with intrigue, though, that'll probably change, per usual.)

There’s still time for the Jags’ defense to save this season, but it hasn't in three straight double-digit defeats. A loss to the Eagles in London, which is one of the Jaguars' six remaining games away from home, will drop them to 3-5. Bortles and/or Kessler winning six of the final eight sounds difficult.

Last year’s playoff voyage doesn't look like a sign the Jaguars are the AFCer best poised to take the Patriots’ crown. That looks like the Chiefs now.

If the Jaguars cannot find a better quarterback in 2019 and capitalize on the remainder of this defensive nucleus' time together, it will be easy to trace back to where it all went wrong.