Why the 2020 QB class has created a unique dilemma for teams

John Elway’s previous swings and misses to find an optimal Peyton Manning successor — and the swinging strike potentially waiting to happen — have been the Broncos’ most identifiable feature since Super Bowl 50. 

For a while, the Hall of Fame quarterback was viewed as one of the NFL’s top general managers. He equipped Manning with a historically dominant defense, elevating the Broncos to a Super Bowl title.

Elway’s GM tenure went from respected to mocked based largely on one event: the 2016 trade-up for Paxton Lynch.

The miscalculation threw the Broncos off track, dooming one of this century's best defensive nuclei to some overlooked seasons that opened the door for the Chiefs’ AFC West ascent. The Lynch decision is the main reason for Denver's decline. Its fallout serves as a warning sign for teams in need of a quarterback in this draft.

Although Kyler Murray is now stationed atop most mock drafts, 2019’s group of quarterback prospects has generated scrutiny for months. Two well-known evaluators would have placed neither Murray nor Dwayne Haskins as surefire top-four quarterback prospects were their 2019 versions entered in the 2018 draft. Significant risk comes with drafting first-round quarterbacks, it being the position most closely tied to coaches’ and executives’ employment. 

This year may carry heightened stakes.

The Broncos’ blunder shows not only what can happen by making the wrong investment, but also picking the wrong year to do it. It should not be viewed as a mistake to postpone a quarterback pick in a bad year, though it certainly requires job security.

Had the then-defending Super Bowl champions — whose Brock Osweiler QB-in-waiting strategy burned multiple teams — used Elway's recent caretaker-veteran-type approach in 2016, it would have bought a better Broncos team time to wait for a more promising quarterback draft.

Elway reportedly “loved” Patrick Mahomes, but having just chosen Lynch, he could not enter the sweepstakes the Broncos’ top rival won. Although Deshaun Watson does not seem like Elway’s type, he qualifies here too. Denver's Lynch pick may have impacted its decision-making last year as well.

Since 1990, only two franchises (the Seahawks in 1991 and '93 and Browns in 2012 and '14) have chosen first-round passers twice in three years. Round 1 misses may not be as financially damaging as they once were, but the development time dissuades franchises from near-future upgrade avenues — Jacksonville's plight.

Holding the No. 1 pick as Chiefs GM six years ago, John Dorsey successfully navigated this problem, trading for Alex Smith rather than gambling on a passer in the worst quarterback draft this decade. Similar circumstances present themselves this year, based on Denver's and Washington's trades for lower-level options.

The Dolphins and Giants join the Broncos and (probably) Redskins in missing long-term solutions. The next level of quarterback neediness houses the teams ready to give their incumbents one last shot. The Buccaneers and Bengals qualify, with the Lions, Titans and Raiders possibly in this category, too. This contingent's other sector encompasses franchises nearing the end of iconic runs. The Patriots, Saints, Chargers and, depending on Mason Rudolph’s organizational standing, Steelers reside here.

This shapes up as a fascinating pursuit, one that may crest in 2020. 

If the primary franchises linked to 2019 first-round quarterbacks pass, there may be many eyeing help next year — in what is expected to be a much better signal-caller prospect pool. 

While projecting a year away is difficult, it must be done when pondering quarterback investments. As of now, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jake Fromm front the next class of draft-eligible quarterbacks — each carrying intrigue Drew Lock and Daniel Jones do not. Drawing scouting trips from QB-needy GMs, Herbert would have been this year’s top traditional passing prospect. Tagovailoa may outflank him a year from now. Fromm has been on radars for a while, too.

It would be a gamble for both Denver and New York to hold top-10 picks in consecutive years and eschew gargantuan quarterback needs in each draft, particularly in the Giants' case. But if long-game homework leads them to believe Haskins and/or Lock do not possess what members of the 2020 crop could provide, then another best-player-available pick should not be deemed insane in a draft labeled the worst for QBs since 2013.

The Dolphins appear ready to play this game, and given the shape of their roster, they may be in better position to land one of those 2020 arms than the Broncos or Giants. Set for a sobering Case Keenum-Colt McCoy battle, the Redskins also look ready to wait. Unprompted, Elway mentioned the 2020 class during a scouting combine interview, another indication the Broncos are strongly considering tabling their passer pick again.

Multiple teams in the “we have no answer” lot going elsewhere this April will create a compelling arms race. The Dolphins’ rebuild aim may give them the inside #TankforTua/#SlumforFromm track, and the others should enter this draft — if they do not see a future QB1 available — targeting future picks for when it comes time to make trade offers to move into position for next year’s crop. 

That should be a competitive asset-collection race.

If Elway and Giants GM Dave Gettleman cannot pass up a 2019 prospect, it shrinks next year’s suitor group but also widens the opening for better teams’ succession strategies.

Bill Belichick is constantly ahead of the NFL, his pick-swap trades for starters last year providing further illustration. The Patriots collecting enough ammunition to be a viable trade-up candidate for Tom Brady's heir apparent next year would place the Mt. Rushmore coach on the precipice of a defining GM move. The Saints made several win-now deals last year but need to be ready to find their next quarterback, with Drew Brees’ age-40 season coming after he showed signs of decline by season's end. Given their January agony in recent years, would the Saints sacrifice assets for the future? 

Philip Rivers’ and Ben Roethlisberger’s ages may allow the Bolts and Steelers to delay this strategy, but not for long. The cadre of teams with mid-tier incumbents will be studying the 2020 class harder than they’ve examined any group in years.

That will make matters more difficult for the desperate franchises that have 2019 decisions to make. Their will-they/won’t-they choices this April will be the start of a complex process, but bowing out of the race early just for the sake of filling a need now may be ill-advised.

How the sect of the NFL that needs 2020s-and-beyond quarterback solutions proceeds over the next 13 months will be a fun roster-building subplot to follow — one with potential regimes- and era-altering ramifications.