Why the Kyler Murray-to-Jets talk is absurd

The New York Jets need a franchise quarterback.

Kyler Murray, a 28-year-old former No. 1 overall pick with respectable numbers, seems to be headed toward the trade block after an apparent “soft benching” in Arizona.

Naturally, the media views this as a match made in heaven.

In response to those rumors, here’s a message to the media: It’s time to put on our common sense caps and nip this in the bud.

Murray-to-New York makes little to no sense for the Jets in their current predicament, for numerous reasons.

The Jets would be bonkers to trade for Murray

Murray’s contract is actually quite tradeable for both Arizona and the potential acquiring team, which adds credence to the idea he could be dealt.

If the Cardinals trade Murray this offseason, they would save $35.3 million in cap space while absorbing $17.9 million in dead money. Arizona would be responsible for paying off Murray’s remaining guaranteed bonuses. The acquiring team would absorb his remaining base salaries of $22.8 million in 2026 and $19.5 million in 2027, plus a $17 million roster bonus in 2026 that already became guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2025 league year.

In addition, Murray has a $14.2 million roster bonus for 2027, but that isn’t due until the fifth league day of 2027, which means the acquiring team could get out of his deal after the 2026 season with zero ramifications.

Put it all together, and a team could trade for Murray on a one-year, $39.8 million tryout with no guarantees beyond the first season—an appealing setup for a quarterback as risky as Murray (between his injury history and inconsistent play).

However, the Jets are not in an ideal position to absorb a lucrative quarterback contract in 2026.

The Jets will already be on the hook to commit $35 million in dead money toward Aaron Rodgers in 2026, who will either be retired or donning black and gold. In addition, they owe at least $22 million in cap space for Justin Fields, who will either be playing elsewhere or backing up/competing with a first-round rookie.

First-year general manager Darren Mougey did a poor job with Fields’ contract. Despite Fields being an unproven player who would have to earn a second year in the starting role, Mougey left the Jets with a heavy commitment to Fields in the second year of his contract.

Fields signed a two-year, $40 million deal with $30 million guaranteed, and most of the guarantees are backloaded into the second season. Fields only had an $8 million cap hit in 2025, but it jumps to $23 million in 2026, and $22 million of that is guaranteed: $12 million of his fully guaranteed $15 million signing bonus (which was prorated over five years), and $10 million of his $20 million base salary.

If the Jets cut Fields, they will save just $1 million in cap space. They can cut him with a post-June 1 designation to increase the savings to $10 million in 2026 (still owing $13 million in dead money), but all that would do is push $9 million in dead money out to 2027, which the Jets are probably uninterested in doing, considering they are putting all their chips in on the 2027 offseason.

At the very least, the Jets will be committing $48 million in dead money toward Rodgers and Fields next year. If New York would rather stick with Fields as a backup/stopgap instead of cutting him to save $1 million, they will be paying $57 million for Rodgers and Fields.

Toss in Murray’s $39.8 million cap hit, and the Jets would be paying nearly $97 million to three quarterbacks.

The Jets could theoretically handle it, as they are projected to have $93.4 million in cap space next offseason (fourth-most), per Over The Cap. That’s with Rodgers and Fields’ cap hits already accounted for.

But for a team that just traded arguably its two best players, the Jets need to start restocking the cabinets with a quantity of core players. One middling quarterback on a one-year deal is not an ideal usage of $40 million in cap space for a currently 1-7 team that needs a plethora of starters.

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Murray makes no financial sense for the Jets in their current situation, given his caliber of play and reliability in the NFL. It would be a different story if Murray had shown a higher ceiling, as the risk would be worth the potential reward, but he has not displayed enough upside for the Jets to justify rolling the dice on him for one year instead of finding other uses for the $40 million and draft pick(s) it would take to bring him in.

Murray has solidified himself as a slightly below-average starting quarterback after seven seasons to prove himself. His career passer rating is 92.2, about 1.6 points below the current 2025 league average (93.8), and he averages 6.07 net yards per pass attempt, a hair below the 2025 league average (6.14). He’s led his teams to a 38-48-1 record (.442).

Those numbers would still make Murray one of New York’s best quarterbacks in franchise history, but the Jets shouldn’t be striving to clear their own ankle-high bar. To return to relevancy, they need to operate like a competent NFL franchise. That means not shelling out assets for mediocrity just because mediocrity would be glory relative to the paltry standards set by people who are no longer in the building.

The Jets’ goal is to find a franchise quarterback, one who can consistently perform among the best in the league, stay durable, provide excellent leadership, raise his teammates’ level of play, step up in big moments, and single-handedly carry his team when they need it most. Murray has had seven seasons to show he’s capable of those things, and he’s failed.

Murray’s pure athleticism and arm talent are enough to make him a league-average starter, and at times, he’s enjoyed hot stretches where he indeed looks like one of the league’s best starters. Those never last, though. Due to the natural limitations of his height (a generous 5-foot-10), along with his scrutinized leadership and poor durability, Murray has never been able to sustain elite-level success.

On top of his capped-out ceiling, Murray has consistently dealt with injury issues, playing just 55 of Arizona’s 76 games since 2021 (12.3 out of every 17 games). He’s missed at least three games in four of the past five seasons.

Even more concerning are the questions about Murray’s leadership; the Cardinals had to put an “independent study” clause in his contract that required him to complete four hours of film study per week. This has since been removed, but it intensified public criticism about his lack of commitment to football.

For a Jets team in desperate need of a trustworthy face of the franchise, a guy better known for playing “Call of Duty” than winning football games is not the answer—not when adding him entails giving up draft capital and committing nearly $100 million to three quarterbacks in a single season.

It takes a basic understanding of the Jets’ rebuild trajectory and cap situation to realize that New York is not the ideal landing spot for Murray.

Murray makes the most sense for a team that feels like it’s a decent quarterback away from competing for a playoff spot and has the financial flexibility to absorb a large cap hit for one year. In fact, he would have been absolutely perfect for the Jets’ situation in 2023, an even better option than Aaron Rodgers.

The Jets had an elite defense and a collection of promising supporting pieces on offense. They just needed an average quarterback to field a playoff team on paper, as Zach Wilson’s atrocious play cost the team enough victories to drop them from potential Super Bowl contenders to a 7-10 record. And with no major financial commitments at quarterback, a one-year, $40 million deal for Murray would have fit perfectly into their cap situation.

Murray’s level of play is similar to what Rodgers provided in his last season as a Packer; he can be trusted to provide at least respectable starter-quality play, which would be a massive upgrade for a team coming off Wilson-esque quarterback play. Additionally, since he’s 28, Murray still has a chance to establish himself as a team’s long-term solution and re-up on a new deal if he earns it through his performance in 2026.

A team in a similar predicament to the 2023 Jets should absolutely pursue Murray. But the 2026 Jets will be in an entirely different situation. This is a rebuilding team looking to re-solidify the structural integrity of the roster and use its treasure chest of assets to land the superstar quarterback it’s been dying for. Trading for Murray gets in the way of both of those goals.