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Will a loss to the Bears signal a Broncos fire sale?
Denver Broncos HC Sean Payton Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Will a Week 4 loss to the Bears signal a Broncos fire sale?

There’s no question that the Denver Broncos are among the worst teams in the NFL.

A potential Week 4 loss to the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field would leave Denver as one of just two remaining win-less teams (the Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings, both 0-3, play each other this weekend), but it might also accomplish something else, according to SI.com’s Albert Breer: Convince those in charge that it’s time to start the fire sale.

“The Broncos were depleted of draft picks the past two years as a result of the Russell Wilson trade, which has made it more difficult to build depth,” Breer wrote. “So, if (Sean) Payton comes to the determination that the core of the 2023 team isn’t going to grow into one consistently capable of contending in a division that has Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, then it makes sense to consider which pieces of the core might be assets to construct a new, sturdier, more capable core.”

In the Super Bowl era (since 1966), just six teams have started 0-3 and made the playoffs and only one team has started 0-4 and made it. There’s little evidence to suggest this Broncos team can be the exception and not the rule.

Should the Broncos fall to 0-4, blowing the team up and going full rebuild makes a ton of sense.

If it gets to that point, why not start selling off pieces and let Payton, who is tied to the team for $18 million per year over the next five years, start building his team from the ground up?

Denver’s 2024 first rounder could end up being a top-two or three selection and with as bad as Russell Wilson has been, it may be too tempting to pass up taking USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye and let Payton mold them from Day 1.

The Broncos have assets that could bring back additional draft pick compensation, including receivers Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, offensive linemen Garrett Bolles and Ben Powers, linebackers Randy Gregory and Alex Singleton and safety Justin Simmons.

Patrick Surtain II would also bring back a nice haul, but he’s just 23 and likely a player Denver would want to hold onto and key its rebuild around.

The Broncos’ hands are tied monetarily as well. They owe Wilson $210 million through 2028 and can’t realistically move on from him until 2026 when it doesn’t cripple them financially. 

Cutting him then would result in $31.2 million in dead money but result in $27.2M in cap savings; releasing him before then would result in $85M in dead money in 2024 and $49.6M in dead money in 2025.

The Wilson contract is a prime example of a team taking its medicine after making a bad deal. But for as bad as things are in Denver right now, rebuilding around a franchise quarterback like Williams or Maye could be a possible silver lining.

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