Will An AFC Quarterback Finally Eclipse Mahomes?

The ceiling for AFC contenders is Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs and most agree, another Chiefs Super Bowl equates to another failure for both Baltimore and Buffalo. So, which AFC quarterback will finally overcome that mountain in 2025? That’s the question Michael Wilbon and Damien Woody debated Thursday morning.

“It’s Lamar,” Wilbon said on Thursday’s edition of Get Up. “When you are in and around the Ravens, the franchise over the years, they’ve won a couple; they've done it. They've climbed the mountain. Was it against Mahomes? No. But they've done it, and Buffalo's still looking to do it.”

It, in other words, means winning the Super Bowl. Baltimore beat San Francisco in 2012 and beat the Giants in 2000 to claim its two Super Bowl titles. But Jackson was a sophomore at Boynton Beach High School in Florida the last time the Ravens did it.

But Buffalo is favored in all 17 games this season, including home dates against Baltimore (Week 1) and Kansas City (Week 9). While Jackson and Mahomes combined to claim four of six MVPs from 2018-23, Allen is the reigning winner – primarily because he didn’t make mistakes last season. And that’s why Damien Woody sees the Bills as most likely to unseat Kansas City and claim the AFC crown.

“The one thing that you can say about Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills,” Woody said, “the reason that the Buffalo Bills lose is not because of Josh Allen. Josh Allen, his stats are historical, and then all of a sudden, other things happen.

“I'm still waiting on Lamar Jackson to put together a vintage Lamar Jackson-type of game in the postseason.”

Most believe Baltimore has much more talent on its roster. The Ravens also return more starters this season. But the team’s schedule includes Detroit, Houston, the L.A. Rams, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Dallas and Washington. And nothing’s guaranteed in the AFC North, where the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals each have won division titles since 2020.

Buffalo, meanwhile, has the NFL’s fifth-easiest schedule according to Warren Sharp.

And while both the Bills and Ravens will meet the Chiefs again this year, who return some of their key starters, everyone agrees that the regular-season games are irrelevant. What they do when they meet in the postseason eclipses everything.

Both Allen and Jackson entered the league in the first round of the 2018 draft. Since that day, Mahomes against Allen is 1-4 in regular-season games but 4-0 in the postseason, including the 2020 and 2024 AFC title games.

Against Jackson, Mahomes is 4-1 in the regular season and 1-0 in the playoffs (the 2023 AFC Championship Game).

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