Will Buffalo Circle The Wagons For 12 Wins?

If Buffalo's one of the few teams lucky enough to have a definitively right answer at quarterback, why do books expect year-over-year regression?

Bills' phenom QB Josh Allen's worth as many points against the spread as any single player in the league. Watch one game and it becomes crystal clear to anyone with rudimentary knowledge of the NFL that this guy can ball. That said, between Dalton Kincaid (Rd1, 2023) and Keon Coleman (Rd2, 2024), the front office burned a ton of draft capital whiffing on multiple offensive starters — and the public must be finally be thinking Allen's without proper support in the passing game. How long can one player shoulder that much of the load?

BUF's offense easily ranked in the top-5 by every critical objective metric in 2024 — points per game (30.9), yards per play (6.0), EPA/play (+0.15), and points per drive (2.9) all scream buy, buy buy! However, you can't take those stats with you into the new season, and Bills' brass did next to nothing this spring (does signing Elijah Moore count) to boost their prospect for 2025. Then, just when Bills' faithful thought they'd  add a pass-catcher in the draft, the mafia was left empty-handed and disappointed. They'll be prolific, but to what extent?

Buffalo also struggled in several elements of defense last year. They were consistently unable to get off the field (2:59 average opposition time of possession) because of failures to prevent long runs (4.5 yards per carry, 9.5% explosive rush rate allowed), or completions in general (68.5% completion). To back the Bills this year means having faith in the draft class, brought in to address these issues specifically. Brandon Beane exclusively drafted defenders in the first five rounds, picking CB Maxwell Hairston, DT T.J. Sanders, DE Landon Jackson, DT Deone Walker, and S Jordan Hancock to right the ship going forward. Will it work? Only time will tell, but I have my doubts.

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

I won't bury the lede any further, and it's not because I'm a dyed-in-the-wool Jets fan. Buffalo's absolutely a winning football team, so short-selling them is ill-advised — but there's zero chance I'm pulling the trigger on BUFFALO BILLS OVER 11.5 WINS (-150) based on the price alone. Mix in improved defenses in-division, plus games against BUF, KC, and PHI to see why I'm even more trigger shy than when I started.

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