Will Geno Smith Hold The Raiders Offense Together?

The Las Vegas Raiders as a franchise are in a rut—no playoff wins in 22 years, no playoff appearance in three years, and no Super Bowl wins since 1983. The team is in dire need of a reboot. Therefore, Raiders fans were thrilled when the club announced a rebuilt back office under new head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. They also secured former Seattle Seahawks playcaller Geno Smith on a two-year, $75 million contract, according to Gambling.com.

Smith represents the Raiders’ latest attempt to stabilize a position that has been in flux since Derek Carr’s departure. But under a new head coach, can Smith transcend his “average” label and become the cohesive force behind the offensive line that Vegas desperately needs to bring success to this proud but floundering franchise?

The Case for Smith: Efficiency & Experience

While Smith’s reputation has been tarnished with a middling career up to now, the 34-year-old does offer a skill set that the Raiders’ offense could benefit from. The Raiders were 29th in points per game in 2024, while Smith has some decent underlying numbers during his time in the Pacific Northwest.

Over the last three seasons, the former West Virginia Mountaineer has led the NFL in completion rate over expected and catchable ball rate, and he started 17 games in 2022 and 2024, throwing for 4,282 and 4,320 yards, respectively. His passer rating in the last three years has been decent, averaging 90+, with his 2022 rating of 100.9 representing his best at the Seahawks.

Despite this, his TD/INT could do with some improvement, throwing 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions in 2024. Smith has also had some red zone struggles in 2024, only throwing 7 TD passes on 27 attempts inside the 10-yard line last term. A big improvement is needed if Smith is going to help the Raiders achieve a playoff berth in a competitive AFC West.

System Synergy: Why The Pass May Not Matter

Smith’s limitations with the ball in hand, however, might not be as devastating for the Raiders’ chances as you might think. The recruitment of Chip Kelly has indicated that the team might be focusing on the ground game in 2025.

Also, the Raiders’ decision to draft Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty with the 6th overall pick in the NFL Draft shows that Kelly might be attempting to replicate his Ohio State offense, which led college football in rushing success rate and EPA in 2024.

This run-centric approach could reduce pressure on Smith, who was sacked 50 times in 2024, unlock an explosive play-action option, and allow the Raiders to spread the offensive workload across Jeanty and explosive tight end Brock Bowers.

The Verdict: Floor-Raiser, Not Savior

Smith is a clear upgrade over 2024’s QB carousel, and his efficiency should elevate Bowers/Meyers. However, Kelly’s offense will run through Jeanty, making Smith a stabilizer rather than a centerpiece. If the Raiders’ defense—which lost key starters like Robert Spillane and Marcus Epps—falters, Smith’s limitations could be exposed.

In short, Smith can hold together the Raiders’ offense if the run game dominates and turnovers stay manageable. But expecting him to carry it through AFC West firefights overlooks his history and the team’s strategic DNA. Vegas’ ceiling rests on Jeanty’s explosiveness and Carroll’s defense—not Geno’s arm alone.