Will Packers Fire Matt LaFleur? Here’s What Kalshi Predicts

In the wake of the Green Bay Packers’ humiliating loss to the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday, the heat under the seat of coach Matt LaFleur has been cranked back up.

At least in the prediction markets.

According to Kalshi as of Monday morning, there is a 63.6 percent chance that LaFleur will no longer be the team’s head coach on March 1. His counterpart for Sunday’s game at Tampa Bay, Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles, is the overwhelming favorite at 95 percent.

In the next-coach-out odds, Bowles is at 69.4 percent and LaFleur is next at 16.2 percent.

Before the Sunday games, LaFleur also was given a 63.6 percent probability of being ousted by March 1. That’s actually down, with emotions having cooled in the aftermath of a 35-14 loss. The odds were 81.9 percent immediately after the game and got as high as 86 percent.

In the next-coach-out odds, Bowles was first on Sunday morning at 44 percent, followed by the Commanders’ Dan Quinn at 40 percent and LaFleur at 22 percent. The Buccaneers, however, lost to the Vikings to fall to 0-3 while the Commanders upset the Seahawks to take Quinn off the betting hot seat.

For LaFleur, that market peaked at 75 percent after the game, retreated to 3 percent on Saturday and bounced back up on Sunday before falling a bit on Monday.

Reality Check

The reality, of course, is the betting markets are speculative in nature and have no insight into what Packers President and CEO Ed Policy is thinking. Does he have buyer’s remorse following last year’s contract extensions?  Or is he confident he’s got the right men in place to get the team turned around?

The dial on LaFleur’s hot seat was cranked up to 11 after last year’s stunning collapse in which the Packers lost their final five games, including the playoff debacle against the Bears. Instead of firing LaFleur and/or general manager Brian Gutekunst, Policy gave them the best-possible votes of confidence by rewarding them with new deals.

“While we are all disappointed with the way this season ended, we remain aligned in purpose and have spent considerable time over the past weeks collaborating on a path forward,” Policy said in a team statement at the time.

“I am exceedingly confident we have the right people to achieve our goal. The entire Packers organization looks forward to supporting every effort to bring our community and fans another championship that they very much deserve.”

The Packers appear to be in full-scale retreat in the championship race, though. They imploded in the fourth quarter of the opener against Minnesota, turning a 22-10 lead into a 39-22 loss over the final 20 minutes. They rallied to beat the woeful Jets in Week 2 but got destroyed in front of a national television audience and about 77,000 disgruntled fans at Lambeau Field on Thursday.

The Packers took a 7-0 lead but melted into a tub of goo after Brenton Cox’s roughing-the-passer penalty on third-and-long on the ensuing possession. The Falcons turned that penalty into a touchdown, part of a run of 27 consecutive points that raised questions deeper than LaFleur’s one-sided play-calling.

“I don’t want to say that was the reason that we lost,” LaFleur said of the penalty after the game. “They had 500 yards of offense (and) we had whatever it was. It was a butt-whoopin’. I’m not going to put it on one thing. Certainly, we definitely have to respond better, but that was at least a three-quarter butt-whoopin’ right there.”

Butt-whoopin’, indeed.

At least they addressed a major need.