Will the 49ers win at least 11 games in 2025?

The San Francisco 49ers are coming off a disappointing 2024 campaign, finishing last in the NFC West with a 6-11 record and missing the playoffs for the first time since 2020. Predictions for the 2025 season are mixed. Will their struggles continue, or will they bounce back and prove that last season was just an anomaly?

FOX Sports analyst Geoff Schwartz sees a clear path for head coach Kyle Shanahan's squad to not only rebound in 2025 but potentially contend. The current over/under for San Francisco's win total is set at 10.5, and Schwartz is confident the 49ers can surpass that mark thanks to two key factors—improved health and a favorable schedule.

49ers should be healthier in 2025

"The 49ers' schedule, along with some positive injury regression, has Kyle Shanahan's squad trying for the 1-seed this season," Schwartz boldly predicted. "The 49ers won six games last year, despite a roster filled with injuries. Star running back Christian McCaffrey played in just four games. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk appeared in just seven games. All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams played only 10 games."

Key defensive players like safety Talanoa Hufanga, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave were also limited to a handful of games due to injuries. While those players are no longer on the roster, team decision-makers are confident that the young—and more cost-effective—talent acquired through the draft can fill the void.

On offense, San Francisco still boasts stars like McCaffrey, quarterback Brock Purdy, and tight end George Kittle. Schwartz believes that's enough firepower to fuel a turnaround.

"The 49ers were unfortunate with their injury luck last season. Injury luck is one of those things that we see regression to the mean the following season," Schwartz wrote. "If a team is beat up one season, they often come back healthy the following year. The 49ers' roster is top-heavy, but when healthy, it's hard not to marvel at the talent."

49ers own a favorable schedule

Beyond improved health, Schwartz sees the 49ers benefiting from their last-place schedule in 2025. Outside the NFC West, they will face the AFC South and NFC South—two divisions Schwartz considers among the weakest in the NFL—along with other last-place teams.

"The 49ers should end up being favored in 15 of their 17 games," Schwartz noted.

He concluded, "The combination of San Fran's talent, some injury regression to the mean, and its favorable schedule means that squad should win at least 11 games this season."