With the right bet, this TNF is anything but boring

We have delivered on three straight Same Game Parlays on primetime games in the NFL. The Commanders and Bears are facing off tonight, with many lamenting that we're in for "another boring" Thursday night game. We disagree. 

Washington Commanders @ Chicago Bears

Washington: 1-4 overall, 1-4 ATS, 2-3 overs

Chicago: 2-3 overall, 2-2-1, ATS, 2-3 overs

No, neither of these teams are going to make the postseason, we feel safe saying that out loud. That doesn't mean there's no betting value. Both offenses have left a lot to be desired, as the quarterback play from Carson Wentz and Justin Fields has been less than spectacular, but each will get a soft matchup tonight to get right.

The Commanders are allowing 25.6 points per game, good for sixth-most in the league. The Bears are seeing 21.2 points scored per game against their defense, which is middle of the pack. Throw out the monsoon from Week 1 when San Francisco mustered just 10 points, and Chicago has allowed 24 points per game since with each opponent reaching 20 points scored.

Each of these teams has a clear glaring weakness. For Washington, their secondary is a massive issue. Chicago's troubles begin with their run defense, or better put, the inability to stop the run. Tonight's SGP will be building off these defensive problem areas.

+180 SGP for tonight (DraftKings)

• Over 30.5 points
• Brian Robinson 35+ rushing yards
• Darnell Mooney 40+ receiving yards

Let's begin with the over, a watered-down version of tonight's 38 points. We're asking for just 31 total points scored, a number that has been hit in four straight Bears games and every Commanders game this season. Chicago's average total this season is 38.4 points and Washington's is 43.6. I like this number, and don't hate looking at the normal over either. 

Brian Robinson is back on the field after suffering a gunshot wound in August, and it appears this backfield is his. Last week, Robinson took nine carries to Antonio Gibson's three, and he played 29% of the snaps. While Robinson doesn't have the passing game involvement that Gibson or J.D. McKissic did, tonight's game script should favor plenty of rushes from Washington. Head coach Ron Rivera was quoted last week about Robinson's role: "If he comes back and he's the guy that we believe he's going to be, he'll come in and he'll be our primary running back." Chicago has allowed 4.9 yards per rush this season, the ninth-highest in the NFL, and four straight running backs have gone over their rushing yards prop against the Bears. It would have been five straight, but Elijah Mitchell was hurt early in Week 1 after racking up 41 yards on just six carries. We considered moving Robinson up to 45+ yards but will opt for the safer floor. 8-10 carries from Robinson should get us this number against this defense.

Darnell Mooney has finally gotten involved for this Bears offense, finishing the past two weeks with 94 and 52 receiving yards. He has 5+ targets in three straight games, making him the clear WR1 in what is admittedly a low-volume passing attack. For Chicago to win this game, they have to target the Commanders' secondary. Washington is allowing the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and have shown a tendency to get beaten deep. Mooney has a long catch of 56 and 39 in his last two games and should be able to break off a big gain tonight. Through five weeks, eight starting WRs have gone over their receiving yards prop line against Washington.

If you're feeling risky, we gladly support laddering these plays up a bit to add to the odds. Our approach to these winning SGPs in primetime has been safe floors, a strategy we plan to stick to.

In the news ...

Both NLDS matchups even after Wednesday — Kyle Wright and the Braves shutout the Phillies yesterday, winning 3-0 and knotting the series at one game apiece. Meanwhile, the Padres and Dodgers racked up more runs than we were expecting, with San Diego ultimately winning 5-3. Atlanta is now back to being the betting favorite to win the series, at -155. Los Angeles maintained its spot as series favorites, down to -165 this morning. These teams are off today and will resume Friday.

Second games of ALDS today — The Astros and Yankees will look to extend their series leads to 2-0 today, and both are trotting out quality pitchers to get the job done. It will be Framber Valdez for Houston against Luis Castillo for Seattle in the afternoon game. Valdez has seen the Mariners twice this year, allowing three runs in both starts and 13 total hits. Castillo has yet to face the Astros and comes into this one fresh off a gem of a game in the Wild Card Series (7.1 IP of shutout ball). The nightcap will see New York's Nestor Cortes and Cleveland's Shane Bieber on the rubber. Cortes ended the year on a tear, allowing just two total runs over his last four starts, and in two games against the Guardians, the Yankees lefty allowed just four hits and three runs. We like the Mariners and Yankees to win tonight. UPDATE: Yankees-Guardians is postponed until Friday because of weather.

Get prepped for College Football Week 7 — With two games tonight, two tomorrow, and then the usual Saturday schedule, now is the time to take in the odds and angles for college football Week 7. The game of the weekend is looking like No. 10 Penn State (5-0) visiting No. 5 Michigan (6-0). Kicking off at noon on Saturday in the Big House, it's a great way to get the weekend started. The Wolverines are currently a touchdown favorite. 

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll