Worst-Case Scenario for Packers in 2025

The Green Bay Packers in 2023 fielded the youngest playoff team in NFL history. In 2024, they fielded the second-youngest playoff team of all-time.

The Packers are talented and battle-tested. After last year’s franchise-shifting signings of Josh Jacobs and Xavier McKinney, they addressed two weaknesses in the draft with guard Aaron Banks and cornerback Nate Hobbs. Next, they gave quarterback Jordan Love additional weapons in the draft with receivers Matthew Golden and Savion Williams.

If the receivers can become game-changing weapons, the Packers could contend for the Super Bowl. However, looking beyond the schedule and the ever-present threat of injuries, there is one key reason why this season could go sideways.

For years and years, the Packers were contenders because of their elite quarterbacks. Last year, they went 11-6 because of their running game and defense. The running game should be strong again – and maybe even stronger if MarShawn Lloyd becomes an impact player.

But what about the defense?

The loss of defensive tackle T.J. Slaton in free agency has been largely overlooked. He started all 17 games each of the past two seasons. He was a key reason why the Packers fielded one of the best run defenses in the NFL last season. According to league data, that stout run defense was 0.50 yards per carry better when the 340-pounder was on the field in 2024 and 0.32 yards better in 2023.

The Packers didn’t replace him.

They didn’t sign a defensive tackle in free agency, unless you count this former draft pick. Their only addition in the draft was Georgia’s Warren Brinson, who started eight games in five seasons. The only player with Slaton’s brawn is undrafted free agent Nazir Stackhouse, Brinson’s teammate at Georgia.

A full season of Edgerrin Cooper as an every-down player should help, but what if the Packers can’t stop the run – at least to the level they did last year?

Good run defense on first down helps create advantageous situations on third down. There is no better example than Green Bay’s defense last season.

Third-and-long (8-plus yards): Green Bay was No. 1 as opponents converted 15.7 percent of the time.

Third-and-1 to third-and-7: Green Bay was No. 21 as opponents converted 50.4 percent of the time. Shortening it to third-and-1 to third-and-5, Green Bay was No. 23 at 55.1 percent. On passes on third-and-1 to third-and-5, Green Bay was 28th at 57.9 percent.

That’s the value of early-down run defense. The Packers, even with their inconsistent pass rush and the prolonged absence of Jaire Alexander, had the best third-and-long defense in the NFL, which played an enormous role in them finishing fifth in total defense, sixth in points allowed and third in interceptions.

It’s quite possible that former Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kenny Clark will have a bounce-back season. But Devonte Wyatt was a first-round pick in 2022 because of his juice as a pass rusher, not for being a rough-and-tumble run stopper. Run defense hasn’t been Karl Brooks’ forte, either, and Colby Wooden was a healthy inactive to start last season.

So, who’s going to stop the run? And if the Packers struggle in that area, will they be able to get off the field on third down?

Remember, the Packers not only didn’t address defensive tackle, they didn’t really address their pass rush, either. Fourth-round pick Barryn Sorrell wasn’t a great pass rusher at Texas. Fifth-round pick Collin Oliver was an impact rusher at Oklahoma State, but will he be able to beat offensive tackles who outweigh him by 80 or 90 pounds?

And they didn’t really improve at cornerback, either. While they signed Hobbs to a big contract in free agency, he essentially is a one-for-one replacement for Alexander (and Eric Stokes).

Just look at the schedule. With a suspect pass rush and without an elite cornerback, can the Packers beat the Lions’ Jared Goff, the Commanders’ Jayden Daniels, the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow? Those are the quarterbacks in just the first five weeks of the season.

Shoot, Goff, Daniels, Burrow, Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson has to be one of the better quartets of visiting quarterbacks any team has faced in NFL history. Given the upside of Bears quarterback Caleb Williams with a new head coach, Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy with his elite supporting cast and even Carolina quarterback Bryce Young, who finished last season on the upswing, there are no layups on the home schedule.

This season could go off the rails quickly if defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley can’t re-create the run defense that fueled last year’s superb overall defense.

While the offense should be better with a healthy Jordan Love, the potential impact of Luke Musgrave and Lloyd, and the additions of Golden and Williams, it won’t matter if Green Bay can’t get a stop on key third downs. Stopping the run on first and second down will be the key to making it happen.