Would a Better Bengals Defense in 2025 Help or Hurt Joe Burrow's Attempt To Match His Career High Stats From 2024?

CINCINNATI – The question posed to Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow on Tuesday was a simple one:

What do you do for an encore?

The answer is more complex.

This is how Burrow responded:

“Just try to get better. Stats are going to fluctuate year in and year out. Maybe I have a better statistical year, and maybe I don't. I'm not really too worried about that. Try to come out and win games, do what I can to win games, be better as a quarterback and as a player. I think that's attainable. That's the goal year in and year out, just try to get better."

With Burrow coming off an MVP-caliber season that saw his set career highs with 4,918 passing yards and 43 touchdowns yet still fall short of the playoffs due to an awful defense, there is an assumption that everything will be greater in 2025 if new defensive coordinator Al Golden can get things straightened out on his side of the ball.

Especially with Triple Crown winner Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Mike Gesicki all signing extensions to remain with the Bengals.

Assuming Golden can raise the level of the Cincinnati defense from the bottom of the league to somewhere near the middle, then yes, it should follow that the Bengals will win more games.

But that correlation may not stand up when it comes to Burrow’s passing numbers.

In fact, it could have the opposite effect.

One of the reasons Burrow posted those career highs in 2024 was because the defense couldn’t get stops and forced the offense into must-score scenarios on the majority of the second-half possessions.

Because Burrow and the offense kept the Bengals in games and the defense continually put them behind, Cincinnati had 70 drives last season in which it took over facing a deficit of 1 to 8 points.

That was the most in the league.

Think about that. A team with a winning record had the most drives with a chance to tie the score or take the lead.

During their most recent playoff season of 2022, the Bengals had 33 such drives, fourth fewest in the league.

If the defense is able to get an extra stop or two per game, the Bengals should be playing with the lead much more in 2025.

And that should lead to more run calls and a greater emphasis on churning the clock, which would lead to a more efficient, less explosive approach for Burrow and the offense.

Burrow’s fourth-quarter yardage numbers were among the league’s best in the last 35 years.

His 1,367 passing yards led the league in 2024 and were 195 more than runner-up Aaron Rodgers.

And those 1,367 fourth-quarter yards are tied for 19th most since at least 1991.

The majority of the quarterbacks at the top of the list, like Burrow, are on teams that did not make the playoffs and spent much of their fourth quarter drives fighting from behind.

Only 14 of the top 51 played for playoff teams.

This isn’t to say that a better Bengals defense is certain to cut into Burrow’s numbers. He’s proven capable of posting huge numbers regardless of the score, and given how last year went, you can bet head coach Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator won’t be easing up in quarters 1-3 even if the team builds a comfortable lead.

The point here is that Burrow could play even better in 2025 than he did in 2024 and still see a dip in his volume stats such as passing yards and passing touchdowns.

He and the rest of the team will happily take that if it comes with a spike in wins.

Another element working against Burrow is history.

There are only two quarterbacks who have thrown for at least 4,900 yards in back-to-back seasons.

Matthew Stafford did it for the Detroit Lions in 2011-12, and Drew Brees did it four years in a row with the Saints from 2011-14.

New Orleans only made the playoffs twice during Brees’ four-year run of gaudy passing yardage.

Brees also is the only quarterback in NFL history to toss at least 43 touchdown passes in back-to-back seasons, doing it in 2011 and 2012.

The Saints made the playoffs in 2011 but finished with a 7-9 record in 2012.

Expecting Burrow to exceed 2024 numbers would be a huge ask under circumstance.

To do it while playing with what the Bengals hope will be an improved defense that changes the tenor of fourth quarters seems unlikely.

But no one will care if the Bengals are playing beyond Week 18 for the first time since 2022.