Would Baker Mayfield actually be 'justified' seeking these contract extension figures?

Baker Mayfield, the two-time Pro Bowl quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, is entering the final year of a contract the market has essentially lapped. His current average annual salary of $33.3 million ranks 16th among all quarterbacks.

Extension talks between Mayfield and Tampa Bay are expected to happen at some point this offseason. The Athletic's Jeff Howe reported that Mayfield would be "justified" seeking either a four-year, $224 million deal or a five-year, $280 million deal, with at least half fully guaranteed.

Both structures land at $56 million per year, which would rank second behind only Dak Prescott's $60 million annually with the Dallas Cowboys.

What Baker Mayfield's numbers say about where he stands among NFL QBs

Mayfield arrived in Tampa on a one-year, $4 million deal in March 2023 after the Carolina Panthers released him the previous season. He threw for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns, leading Tampa to the playoffs.

Tampa Bay rewarded him with a three-year, $100 million extension in March 2024. Over the past two seasons, he totaled 8,193 passing yards and 67 touchdowns.

The gap between that production and his pay is notable. CBS Sports' Joel Corry has cited Daniel Jones' $44 million average annual salary with the Indianapolis Colts as a potential floor for Mayfield's next deal.

That figure has been surpassed by several extensions this past year. 10 quarterbacks now earn at least $50 million per season. Corry's number sits below where the market already is.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love each earn $55 million annually. Mayfield has outperformed both over the past two seasons.

Tampa Bay's spending history and Mike Evans' exit complicate the picture

The production argument is clear enough. The organizational context around it raises more questions. Tampa Bay has not ranked higher than 21st in cash spending in any of the three seasons since Tom Brady retired, down from first in 2021 and 2022.

Wide receiver Mike Evans rejected a larger contract offer from Tampa Bay to sign with the San Francisco 49ers this offseason. Buccaneers GM Jason Licht confirmed Evans turned down more money to leave.

Licht has stated that he wants Mayfield in Tampa long-term. But Evans' departure, combined with the team missing the playoffs last season, could signal a roster transition is underway.

There is no guaranteed path here. Mayfield could push for a deal Tampa is not prepared to meet on price or guarantees, and 2026 could begin without a resolution.

If Mayfield plays out 2026 without an extension, he enters free agency alongside Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford. The price Tampa pays may increase.

Paying him now, at a number his play justifies, is the cleaner option. Whether Tampa's ownership is ready to commit at that level is what this offseason ultimately comes down to.