On Facebook
On Flipboard
On Twitter
Connor McDavid is usually the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy more seasons than not. While he’s still in the race, a slow start to 2023-24 has left the chase more open coming out of the All-Star Break. McDavid still has decent odds to come away with the Hart, especially if the Edmonton Oilers stay hot to close the season. But there are others at the top of the race at the moment.
Artemi Panarin
The New York Rangers got off to a hot start this season but have cooled off since about American Thanksgiving. Still, they find themselves at the top of the Metropolitan Division thanks to the stellar play of Artemi Panarin, who’s having one of the best seasons of his career.
Panarin has 31 goals and 67 points in 50 games coming out of the All-Star Break. He’s topped 30 goals four times in his career, but he’s well on his way to a career-high, as he’s on pace to finish with 50-plus goals. Panarin has been shooting the puck much more this season, as he already has 196 shots on goal, putting him on pace to finish with 321, which would easily be a career-high, too.
Panarin’s play has been worth an expected wins above replacement (xWAR) of 3.5, ranked fifth in the NHL. That’s double his actual WAR of 1.7, but just because his expected numbers don’t match his actual numbers doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be in the Hart Trophy conversation. He’s been the Rangers’ most efficient five-on-five scorer by a country mile. And the team has been much better when he’s on the ice compared to when he’s off.
It’s hard to imagine where the Rangers would be without Panarin and Jonathan Quick this season. They’d be a playoff team, but they’d likely be chasing first place instead of holding down the position since the season’s opening game.
David Pastřnák
Reports of the Boston Bruins’ demise before the season were premature. Strong goaltending and defense are part of why they sit atop the Atlantic Division and look like a Stanley Cup contender. But David Pastřnák playing at an MVP-caliber level is another reason the Bruins look like a threat in the East.
Pastřnák has an impressive 33 goals and 72 points in 49 games coming out of the All-Star Break, putting him on pace to finish with 55 goals and 120 points. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.4, placing him in the top 10 league-wide for forwards.
The Bruins seem to defy the odds and expectations placed against them. But it’s fair to wonder where they’d be without Pastřnák, especially since Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí retired this past offseason. They’d have no offensive punch without Pastřnák, and their position in the Atlantic would probably be more precarious, even if his 2.4 WAR suggests otherwise.
Connor McDavid
Just because McDavid had a slow start doesn’t mean you should count him out of the race. Part of the slow start was due to an injury that kept him out for a week or so at the beginning of the season. Even when he returned, it didn’t seem like he was himself for a couple of weeks. But now, McDavid very much looks like the McDavid we all know.
Up to 67 points in 43 games, McDavid would be on pace to finish with 127 points if he were to play in all 82 games this season. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.7, and it’s likely to climb a bit more over the team’s final 33 games of the season.
Offensively, McDavid has been his typical self, averaging 2.91 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, making him one of the most efficient five-on-five scorers in the league. And though some may think he lags defensively, McDavid’s even-strength defense has been worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 2.9. He’s getting it done in all facets of the game.
While I don’t think he’s the frontrunner for the Hart, there’s a strong argument he’s in the top three. And with how well the Oilers have been playing lately, I certainly expect his candidacy to strengthen as the season progresses.
Nikita Kucherov
The Tampa Bay Lightning are not what they were during their Cup runs in the early part of this decade, but they still have high-end talent led by Nikita Kucherov. Nathan MacKinnon and Kucherov sit atop the league in points with 85 and have identical stat lines (32 goals, 53 assists).
Kucherov is on pace for an outrageous 142 points and has been a significant reason why the Lightning have gotten into a more secure playoff position in the Eastern Conference. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.4, and his five-on-five scoring has been elite, as he’s averaging 2.83 points per 60 minutes.
Offensively, not many players have had a better impact than Kucherov, especially at even strength. But even on the power play, as expected, he’s been tearing it up:
It looks like it’ll be a neck-and-neck race between Kucherov and MacKinnon, assuming the two stay healthy. The Lightning probably would be struggling to compete for a playoff spot without him, even with Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point still scoring at a high clip.
Nathan MacKinnon
There’s no doubt that MacKinnon is the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy coming out of the All-Star Break. As mentioned, his counting totals are identical to Kucherov’s. But his underlying metrics are among the best in the NHL.
MacKinnon’s play has been worth a WAR of 3.7. Think about that. There are 30-plus games left, and MacKinnon has already been worth about four additional wins to his team compared to a replacement-level player. He’s averaging a wild 3.20 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and has been one of the best play drivers in the NHL.
The Avalanche have had issues with forward depth and injuries this season, but MacKinnon has essentially covered them up on his own. That’s how good he’s been. Without him, the Avalanche would not be the team that they are. They need to make additions ahead of the trade deadline, especially in net. But the Avalanche are a Stanley Cup contender because of MacKinnon.
Honorable Mentions
Auston Matthews is having an interesting season. He’s on pace for a crazy Cy Young stat line, with 40 goals and 19 assists in 47 games. That puts him on pace to conclude the season with 69 tallies. If he finishes with 70 or more, I think he’ll get Hart Trophy consideration simply for that.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller get some consideration, too. Miller is on pace for 112 points, while Pettersson is on pace for 107. I think they’ll end up outside the top five at the end of the season, but there’s still a long way to go.
And since there’s a long way to go, the Hart Trophy is still up for grabs. MacKinnon leads the race coming out of the All-Star Break. But Kucherov is right there, and I expect McDavid to make a push over the final third of the season.
* * *
Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey
More must-reads:
- Carter Hart, others found not guilty in Hockey Canada sexual assault trial
- Three-time All-Star will be key to Fever weathering troubling Caitlin Clark injury update
- The 'Multiple 100-RBI MLB seasons' quiz
Breaking News
Trending News
Customize Your Newsletter
+
Get the latest news and rumors, customized to your favorite sports and teams. Emailed daily. Always free!
TODAY'S BEST
Canucks Reportedly Interested in Former Third-Overall Pick as Another Young Player Could Leave the Team
The Canucks are reportedly quite interested in Ducks' Mason McTavish, this news coming after one of their young NCAA players, Jackson Kunz, could leave the team. With $3.25 million of free cap space now available after Dakota Joshua was sent to Toronto, the Vancouver Canucks and GM Patrik Allvin have room to add a significant piece, and it seems that they may be after a former third overall choice. Vancouver is interested in Anaheim Ducks center Mason McTavish, a restricted free agent, reports The Province's Patrick Johnston. 'Hence their continued interest in Roslovic, as well as their interest in Mason McTavish, the Anaheim Ducks' restricted free agent. Of course adding McTavish, the third-overall pick in the 2021 draft, will be very hard: he's a highly-regarded player with huge upside and will cost a big price in trade, perhaps more than the Canucks can afford.' Johnston said. It won't be an easy feat to get him due to asset limitations and Anaheim's stance on his next deal, but the 22-year-old would be a perfect fit as the Canucks' second-line center. After playing his inaugural 20-goal NHL campaign, McTavish offers skill and grit, two qualities that the Canucks may covet during a playoff push. While a few large-name players are available on the free market, Vancouver is considering trades as well as free agent solutions in the latter half of the offseason. Making a bold move for a player like McTavish wouldn't be out of character with the needs of the team. The Canucks need to sign their important NCAA prospect by August 15th Meanwhile, the Canucks are also under pressure in another direction. The deadline on August 15th is coming up to sign NCAA prospects graduating after four years. If they don't sign them, they'll become unrestricted free agents. The key concern is forward Jackson Kunz. If he isn't signed by August 15, 2025, he'll land on the open market. In the midst of a potential blockbuster trade and looming NCAA deadlines, the next several weeks can be make-or-break for Vancouver.
New York Knicks Predicted to Trade Karl-Anthony Towns For Dallas Mavericks Star
The New York Knicks have had a busy summer thus far as they have made multiple additions to their roster to try and improve off their run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season. Of course, the Knicks also made a head coaching change to begin the summer as they fried Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with two-time Coach of the Year winner Mike Brown. During free agency, New York added Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele to upgrade their bench at a cheap cost, which is an area that they struggled with last season. The Knicks do have one more roster spot open which they will likely use to add another veteran player to their bench. While the Knicks have focused on upgrading their depth this summer, Sports Illustrated’s Jackson Caudell recently created a mock trade that would see New York send Karl-Anthony Towns to the Dallas Mavericks for one of their star players along with depth. In the trade, the Knicks would acquire Klay Thompson, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington from the Mavericks while Dallas would land Towns and Vit Krejci. The Atlanta Hawks are the third team involved in the trade and they would receive Caleb Martin and two second-round picks from the Mavericks. For the Knicks, it would be a tough decision to move on from Towns but they would be able to fill some glaring holes in their roster with their return in this deal. Thompson would give them a much-needed three-point sharpshooter in their starting lineup while both Washington and Gafford would be major additions to their frontcourt, especially on the defensive end. Despite this, the Mavericks may not want to move on from three of their key players to acquire Towns, who struggled in the playoffs last season, primarily on defense. While that may be the case, making this trade would be a massive upgrade to the Knicks’ lineup and depth that could make them the team to beat in the Eastern Conference next season.
Vikings training camp recap, Day 2: Defense continues to impress
It probably shouldn't come as a surprise that through two days of training camp, the Vikings' defense appears to be pretty far ahead of the offense. Brian Flores is now in his third season as Minnesota's defensive coordinator, and many of his key players have been in the scheme since he arrived. Others are now in their second year, and even some of the newcomers seem to have picked things up quickly over the course of this offseason. Meanwhile, the Vikings are breaking in an offense with a new starting quarterback (and a new backup), as well as some new pieces on the offensive line and elsewhere. Expected or not, my main takeaway from Thursday's practice was how impressive this defense already looks. On a beautiful 80-degree day at TCO Performance Center, Flores' group appeared to be in mid-camp form, if not ready for the regular season to begin already. That was also the case on Wednesday, when they snagged a pair of pick-sixes on the first day of camp. The lone interception on Thursday went to 14th-year safety Harrison Smith, the league's active leader in picks by a healthy margin. In a 7-on-7 period, he snagged a J.J. McCarthy pass that deflected off of Lucky Jackson's hands, then — in humorous Smith fashion — proceeded to lateral it to teammate Jay Ward shortly thereafter. So many different members of the first-team defense stood out at least once. Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, and Harrison Phillips blew up run plays and got into the backfield. Jonathan Greenard roasted tackles with speed off the edge. Blake Cashman burst unblocked through a gap on a blitz for a would-be sack. Ivan Pace Jr. did the same off a stunt. Isaiah Rodgers made a great play to break up a McCarthy back-shoulder ball intended for Rondale Moore (who, at 5'7", probably won't be the recipient of many back-shoulder targets in game action). The Vikings were second in defensive DVOA last season, and I don't think there's any question that they got better — at least on paper — over the course of the offseason. That doesn't guarantee more dominance this season. But it's hard not to get excited about a defense that has a chance to be incredible up front with Allen, Hargrave, Phillips, Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, Dallas Turner, Cashman, and Pace. If the secondary reaches its potential, Flores could be cooking with all kinds of gas this season. That context is also why no one should panic if McCarthy and the offense aren't particularly sharp over the course of training camp. This defense might just be better than any they'll see over the entire regular season. Here are some other notes from Thursday's practice. Jeff Okudah is a player to watch. He's the No. 3 corner with the first-team defense right now, alongside Byron Murphy Jr. and Rodgers. The former No. 3 overall pick is on his fourth team in as many seasons, but he's only 26 years old, and if anyone is going to help him revive his career, it feels like Flores and Daronte Jones could be the coaches to do it. Okudah is physical and not afraid to come up in run support, which he did for a would-be TFL in this practice. Mekhi Blackmon has been working with the second-team defense so far. I think I'm obligated by law to comment on McCarthy's performance, even if just for a few sentences, every day throughout camp. I thought he was fine on Thursday, but maybe a bit more shaky than on Day 1. There was the INT to Smith. He also sailed a ball over Justin Jefferson's head when trying to layer an intermediate throw early in practice, which led to a discussion with Kevin O'Connell and others while watching the replay. But McCarthy also completed plenty of passes, most of them of the short variety. He's shown quite the rapport with Jordan Addison, who was his top target in this practice after Jefferson departed (more on that in a second). McCarthy's fastball is impressive, and he used it to connect with players like Addison, Jalen Nailor, and even rookie Tai Felton late in practice. His best throw of the day was an intermediate out route to Addison, who was covered tightly by Theo Jackson. Jefferson sat out most of the team drills out of precaution after experiencing some minor tightness in his legs following a leaping catch. You can read more on that here, but the key thing to emphasize is that it's nothing significant or concerning. Josh Metellus, whose full participation in Wednesday's practice was a story due to his contract situation, watched practice from the sideline on Thursday due to what the Vikings described as a minor ankle issue. It'll be interesting to see if Nos. 18 and/or 44 are out there on Friday. Some of the depth guys on the defensive line will be fun to track over the course of camp. Levi Drake Rodriguez goes 110 percent all the time and ended up in the backfield on a couple plays, including one where he wound up on the ground near Sam Howell's legs (which coaches don't like). Jalen Redmond burst through the line for a TFL at one point. On another rep, Gabriel Murphy and rookie Elijah Williams put pressure on Max Brosmer, who got a few snaps in this practice after not seeing any on Wednesday. Brosmer, by the way, attempted the longest throw of the day, but it was just out of the reach of a well-covered Dontae Fleming. More Vikings coverage
Chicago Bears have an offensive line problem surface at camp
The Chicago Bears thought they secured the center position when they signed Drew Dalman to a three-year deal worth $42 million in free agency. He and the new-look interior offensive line have much to show early in training camp. Dalman is set to be the fifth-starting Week 1 center in six seasons. The others were Coleman Shelton, Lucas Patrick, Sam Mustipher, and Cody Whitehair. Dalman was thought to be the best center in free agency this offseason, but he’s struggling with the most important duty a center has: Snapping the football. Drew Dalman is having a hard time snapping the ball Per Zack Pearson of Bear Report, there were several bad snaps at Thursday’s practice. “There were actually a couple of bad snaps on the day,” Pearson said. “You can just tell that the cadence isn’t fully there yet for this offense. Neither is fortification that was expected when the Bears traded for veteran offensive guards Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney, a future Hall of Fame lineman. The Chicago Bears’ new-look interior OL has the same problem In addition to Dalman airmailing snaps to Williams, the interior offensive line had issues blocking defensive tackle Grady Jarrett. The No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft could have easily been injured while falling to avoid pressure early in training camp. “It was another tough day for the offense on Thursday,” Pearson wrote. “They had a rough 11/11 period to open up the practice which included: Grady Jarrett pressure, reset to get re-huddled, bad snap over Williams’ shoulder, incompletion, scramble that saw Williams fall down trying to escape. It went about as bad as it could have gone without a turnover.” It was expected that an offense with young players like Williams, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden III, and Ozzy Trapilo would have hiccups in the early part of camp. However, it’s a little concerning that an interior offensive line that was handed $145.5 million this offseason is struggling this poorly in July. Overall, the offense has started poorly through the first two days of practice. On the flip side, Jarrett and the defense look good!
PRIVACY POLICY EDITORIAL POLICY CONTACT US
ABOUT YARDBARKER TERMS OF SERVICE
Use of this website (including any and all parts and
components) constitutes your acceptance of these
Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
This site is for entertainment purposes only.
There is no gambling offered on this site.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
