2023-24 Hart Trophy Race: February Update

The Bruins seem to defy the odds and expectations placed against them. But it’s fair to wonder where they’d be without Pastřnák, especially since Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí retired this past offseason. They’d have no offensive punch without Pastřnák, and their position in the Atlantic would probably be more precarious, even if his 2.4 WAR suggests otherwise. 

Connor McDavid

Just because McDavid had a slow start doesn’t mean you should count him out of the race. Part of the slow start was due to an injury that kept him out for a week or so at the beginning of the season. Even when he returned, it didn’t seem like he was himself for a couple of weeks. But now, McDavid very much looks like the McDavid we all know. 

Up to 67 points in 43 games, McDavid would be on pace to finish with 127 points if he were to play in all 82 games this season. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.7, and it’s likely to climb a bit more over the team’s final 33 games of the season. 

Offensively, McDavid has been his typical self, averaging 2.91 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, making him one of the most efficient five-on-five scorers in the league. And though some may think he lags defensively, McDavid’s even-strength defense has been worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 2.9. He’s getting it done in all facets of the game. 

While I don’t think he’s the frontrunner for the Hart, there’s a strong argument he’s in the top three. And with how well the Oilers have been playing lately, I certainly expect his candidacy to strengthen as the season progresses. 

Nikita Kucherov

The Tampa Bay Lightning are not what they were during their Cup runs in the early part of this decade, but they still have high-end talent led by Nikita Kucherov. Nathan MacKinnon and Kucherov sit atop the league in points with 85 and have identical stat lines (32 goals, 53 assists). 

Kucherov is on pace for an outrageous 142 points and has been a significant reason why the Lightning have gotten into a more secure playoff position in the Eastern Conference. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.4, and his five-on-five scoring has been elite, as he’s averaging 2.83 points per 60 minutes. 

Offensively, not many players have had a better impact than Kucherov, especially at even strength. But even on the power play, as expected, he’s been tearing it up:

It looks like it’ll be a neck-and-neck race between Kucherov and MacKinnon, assuming the two stay healthy. The Lightning probably would be struggling to compete for a playoff spot without him, even with Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point still scoring at a high clip. 

Nathan MacKinnon

There’s no doubt that MacKinnon is the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy coming out of the All-Star Break. As mentioned, his counting totals are identical to Kucherov’s. But his underlying metrics are among the best in the NHL. 

MacKinnon’s play has been worth a WAR of 3.7. Think about that. There are 30-plus games left, and MacKinnon has already been worth about four additional wins to his team compared to a replacement-level player. He’s averaging a wild 3.20 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and has been one of the best play drivers in the NHL. 

The Avalanche have had issues with forward depth and injuries this season, but MacKinnon has essentially covered them up on his own. That’s how good he’s been. Without him, the Avalanche would not be the team that they are. They need to make additions ahead of the trade deadline, especially in net. But the Avalanche are a Stanley Cup contender because of MacKinnon. 

Honorable Mentions

Auston Matthews is having an interesting season. He’s on pace for a crazy Cy Young stat line, with 40 goals and 19 assists in 47 games. That puts him on pace to conclude the season with 69 tallies. If he finishes with 70 or more, I think he’ll get Hart Trophy consideration simply for that. 

It also wouldn’t surprise me if Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller get some consideration, too. Miller is on pace for 112 points, while Pettersson is on pace for 107. I think they’ll end up outside the top five at the end of the season, but there’s still a long way to go. 

And since there’s a long way to go, the Hart Trophy is still up for grabs. MacKinnon leads the race coming out of the All-Star Break. But Kucherov is right there, and I expect McDavid to make a push over the final third of the season. 

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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey