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Connor McDavid is usually the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy more seasons than not. While he’s still in the race, a slow start to 2023-24 has left the chase more open coming out of the All-Star Break. McDavid still has decent odds to come away with the Hart, especially if the Edmonton Oilers stay hot to close the season. But there are others at the top of the race at the moment.
Artemi Panarin
The New York Rangers got off to a hot start this season but have cooled off since about American Thanksgiving. Still, they find themselves at the top of the Metropolitan Division thanks to the stellar play of Artemi Panarin, who’s having one of the best seasons of his career.
Panarin has 31 goals and 67 points in 50 games coming out of the All-Star Break. He’s topped 30 goals four times in his career, but he’s well on his way to a career-high, as he’s on pace to finish with 50-plus goals. Panarin has been shooting the puck much more this season, as he already has 196 shots on goal, putting him on pace to finish with 321, which would easily be a career-high, too.
Panarin’s play has been worth an expected wins above replacement (xWAR) of 3.5, ranked fifth in the NHL. That’s double his actual WAR of 1.7, but just because his expected numbers don’t match his actual numbers doesn’t mean he shouldn’t be in the Hart Trophy conversation. He’s been the Rangers’ most efficient five-on-five scorer by a country mile. And the team has been much better when he’s on the ice compared to when he’s off.
It’s hard to imagine where the Rangers would be without Panarin and Jonathan Quick this season. They’d be a playoff team, but they’d likely be chasing first place instead of holding down the position since the season’s opening game.
David Pastřnák
Reports of the Boston Bruins’ demise before the season were premature. Strong goaltending and defense are part of why they sit atop the Atlantic Division and look like a Stanley Cup contender. But David Pastřnák playing at an MVP-caliber level is another reason the Bruins look like a threat in the East.
Pastřnák has an impressive 33 goals and 72 points in 49 games coming out of the All-Star Break, putting him on pace to finish with 55 goals and 120 points. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.4, placing him in the top 10 league-wide for forwards.
The Bruins seem to defy the odds and expectations placed against them. But it’s fair to wonder where they’d be without Pastřnák, especially since Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí retired this past offseason. They’d have no offensive punch without Pastřnák, and their position in the Atlantic would probably be more precarious, even if his 2.4 WAR suggests otherwise.
Connor McDavid
Just because McDavid had a slow start doesn’t mean you should count him out of the race. Part of the slow start was due to an injury that kept him out for a week or so at the beginning of the season. Even when he returned, it didn’t seem like he was himself for a couple of weeks. But now, McDavid very much looks like the McDavid we all know.
Up to 67 points in 43 games, McDavid would be on pace to finish with 127 points if he were to play in all 82 games this season. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.7, and it’s likely to climb a bit more over the team’s final 33 games of the season.
Offensively, McDavid has been his typical self, averaging 2.91 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five, making him one of the most efficient five-on-five scorers in the league. And though some may think he lags defensively, McDavid’s even-strength defense has been worth a goals above replacement (GAR) of 2.9. He’s getting it done in all facets of the game.
While I don’t think he’s the frontrunner for the Hart, there’s a strong argument he’s in the top three. And with how well the Oilers have been playing lately, I certainly expect his candidacy to strengthen as the season progresses.
Nikita Kucherov
The Tampa Bay Lightning are not what they were during their Cup runs in the early part of this decade, but they still have high-end talent led by Nikita Kucherov. Nathan MacKinnon and Kucherov sit atop the league in points with 85 and have identical stat lines (32 goals, 53 assists).
Kucherov is on pace for an outrageous 142 points and has been a significant reason why the Lightning have gotten into a more secure playoff position in the Eastern Conference. His play has been worth a WAR of 2.4, and his five-on-five scoring has been elite, as he’s averaging 2.83 points per 60 minutes.
Offensively, not many players have had a better impact than Kucherov, especially at even strength. But even on the power play, as expected, he’s been tearing it up:
It looks like it’ll be a neck-and-neck race between Kucherov and MacKinnon, assuming the two stay healthy. The Lightning probably would be struggling to compete for a playoff spot without him, even with Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point still scoring at a high clip.
Nathan MacKinnon
There’s no doubt that MacKinnon is the frontrunner for the Hart Trophy coming out of the All-Star Break. As mentioned, his counting totals are identical to Kucherov’s. But his underlying metrics are among the best in the NHL.
MacKinnon’s play has been worth a WAR of 3.7. Think about that. There are 30-plus games left, and MacKinnon has already been worth about four additional wins to his team compared to a replacement-level player. He’s averaging a wild 3.20 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and has been one of the best play drivers in the NHL.
The Avalanche have had issues with forward depth and injuries this season, but MacKinnon has essentially covered them up on his own. That’s how good he’s been. Without him, the Avalanche would not be the team that they are. They need to make additions ahead of the trade deadline, especially in net. But the Avalanche are a Stanley Cup contender because of MacKinnon.
Honorable Mentions
Auston Matthews is having an interesting season. He’s on pace for a crazy Cy Young stat line, with 40 goals and 19 assists in 47 games. That puts him on pace to conclude the season with 69 tallies. If he finishes with 70 or more, I think he’ll get Hart Trophy consideration simply for that.
It also wouldn’t surprise me if Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller get some consideration, too. Miller is on pace for 112 points, while Pettersson is on pace for 107. I think they’ll end up outside the top five at the end of the season, but there’s still a long way to go.
And since there’s a long way to go, the Hart Trophy is still up for grabs. MacKinnon leads the race coming out of the All-Star Break. But Kucherov is right there, and I expect McDavid to make a push over the final third of the season.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey
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