2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Lightning vs. Panthers series preview

The Skinny

The Atlantic Division gifts us a provincial rivalry in the Battle Ontario and a state rivalry in the Battle of Florida? Thank you, hockey gods.

The Lightning and Panthers meet in the playoffs for the fourth time in the past five seasons. The power dynamic shifted dramatically across the their two most recent series. In 2021-22, the Lightning were wrapping up a dynastic run, winning two Stanley Cups and reaching three consecutive Finals, and they swept the Panthers in Round 2. Last season, the Panthers were the powerhouse, steamrolling the Bolts in five games in Round 1, one stop en route to the Panthers’ first Stanley Cup win. The two Florida franchises have combined to win three of the past five Cups and appear in each of the past five Finals.

Each team has taken a turn as the alpha dog. But are the two rivals cycling back into their previous roles now?

The Bolts were supposed to be the franchise in decline, years of contention and trading first-round picks finally catching up to them, squeezed by the cap, completing the life cycle we see for every dynasty in the cap era. But GM Julien BriseBois’ bold 2024 offseason changed everything. He risked the bad PR of letting captain and legend Steven Stamkos walk in free agency and traded one of the Bolts’ top all-around blueliners in Mikhail Sergachev. The Bolts also got younger up front by signing sniper Jake Guentzel and acquiring defenseman J.J. Moser and prospect Conor Geekie in the Sergachev deal. Did Tampa rewind the clock in the process? Maybe. Though it was less the new additions and more the dominant play from the franchise stalwarts that changed everything. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy and blueliner Victor Hedman did their best work in years, left winger Brandon Hagel had a career season and Nikita Kucherov remains Nikita Kucherov. The result: Tampa looked rejuvenated this year and enters the playoffs as one of the league’s most balanced and experienced teams. Are they back?

The Panthers, meanwhile, regressed quite a bit this season, dropping in points percentage from .671 to .598 year over year. Conn Smythe Trophy winner Sergei Bobrovsky looked human. Their scoring depth wasn’t nearly as strong. Then again, they’ve been weathering superstar Matthew Tkachuk’s injury since the 4 Nations Face-Off, dealing with an Aaron Ekblad PED suspension and resting stars like Sam Reinhart and Aleksander Barkov down the stretch. Is this simply a case of the wily defending champions saving their energy to peak when it actually matters? We’ll find out quickly if Florida can flick that switch in Round 1 and transform back into the NHL’s most intimidating team.

Head to Head

Tampa Bay: 2-2-0
Florida: 2-2-0

Fittingly, these two powerhouses played to a standstill in the regular season. That includes the play driving at 5-on-5, which was remarkably even across the four games. Most notable was the bad blood; in the second meeting, a 4-0 Lightning win, Kucherov received a game misconduct for kneeing Tkachuk, and the two teams racked up 63 penalty minutes. The Panthers halted an eight-game Lightning winning streak in early March, while the Lightning’s 5-1 win earlier this week came against a Florida team that was already locked into the third Atlantic seed and resting most of its top stars. Just another example of why we shouldn’t put too much stock into regular-season series in predicting a playoff result.

Top Five Scorers

Tampa Bay

Nikita Kucherov, 121 pts
Brandon Hagel, 90 pts
Brayden Point, 82 points
Jake Guentzel, 80 points
Victor Hedman, 66 points

Florida

Sam Reinhart, 81 pts
Aleksander Barkov, 71 pts
Matthew Tkachuk, 57 pts
Carter Verhaeghe, 53 pts
Sam Bennett, 51 pts

X-Factor

The Lightning are the favorite on paper, but how much will Tkachuk’s impending return tilt the matchup? Get your torches out, LTIR complainers, as we’ll surely see him parachute in for Game 1 Tuesday after last playing for the Panthers Feb. 8, shortly before he headed to the 4 Nations, where he sustained a groin injury. We all know how much he influences the game with his cocktail of timely scoring, physical play and artful agitation. If Tkachuk is truly 100 percent – which might actually be the case, given how Florida slow-played his recovery – he alone could erase the perceived gap between the two clubs.

On the Tampa side, can we stop for a second to appreciate Guentzel? The diminutive right winger is an all-time great playoff scorer. His 0.55 playoff goals per game ties him with Leon Draisaitl for the top mark among active players. If the Panthers are distracted chasing the Kucherov line around, Guentzel could kill them.

Offense

The Bolts are the deadliest offensive team in the NHL, first in goals and sporting a top-five power play. Their 5-on-5 play driving is merely decent, but their elite finishing talent puts them top-three in shooting percentage. Kucherov is the league’s scoring champ two years running and three times for his career. His ability to pick pucks off the wall and make quick, deceptive setups is second to none. Yet this is no one-man team. The Bolts are chock full of deadly goal scorers, the only team in the NHL to have four players with 35 or more in 2024-25. No other team had more than two, actually. Since they can put Kucherov and Point, then Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Guentzel on two separate lines, it’s extremely difficult to neutralize this attack. Nick Paul is one of the league’s handiest third-line centers, too, regularly chipping in 20-plus goals and creating matchup problems in the playoffs with his size.

The Panthers’ offense tumbled to mid-pack in the NHL this season. They boast a single 30-goal scorer. But, again, the number is deceiving. Superstars Tkachuk and Barkov have played 52 and 67 games, respectively. The Cats’ habits remain good; they actually rank second in the NHL in 5-on-5 expected goal generation. It’s the finishing that has eluded them, as they sit 29^th in the league in shooting percentage. That should change as they get to full-strength. Consider that they’ve had players like rookie Mackie Samoskevich and checker Jesper Boqvist playing in their top six this week. When the big names draw back in, the forward group looks far deeper. They’ll have Verhaeghe, Barkov, Reinhart, Marchand, Bennett and Tkachuk likely playing in their top six, meaning their bottom six will include the likes of Samoskevich, Anton Lundell and 2024 playoff hero Evan Rodrigues. Yeah, I’m not concerned this team’s scoring woes will carry over to the postseason.

Defense

OK, maybe some scoring woes will crop up, because both these teams have some defensive standouts. Spoiler alert, the first four names on my 2025 Selke Trophy ballot played on Florida teams. The Lightning’s duo of Hagel and Cirelli is smothering and disruptive on the penalty kill, and Barkov and Reinhart might be the only two forwards better defensively than them. The Bolts allow the fourth-fewest goals per game and the Panthers the seventh-fewest.

The Panthers have actually been the better defensive club this season, however. They’re neck and neck with the L.A. Kings at the top of the league in preventing scoring chances and their expected goals against mark. The Bolts allow fewer goals because they’ve gotten superior goaltending, but they’re closer to mid-pack at scoring chance prevention, still solid but not as stingy as their state rivals. Still, Tampa has the deeper blueline right now, anchored by future Hall of Famer Victor Hedman. He remains a minute-munching monster, and while his stellar offense hadn’t gone anywhere, he vastly improved his defensive impact this season. When Hedman is 100 percent, he’s still elite. Working behind him and Moser or Darren Raddysh is the second pair of Ryan McDonagh, reacquired in the offseason, and Erik Cernak. They specialize in low-event hockey; the Bolts’ offense doesn’t do as much when they’re on the ice, but neither does their opponent. McDonagh and Cernak rank among the best in the NHL at limiting high-danger chances in particular.

The Panthers have been the better defensive club overall, but their blueline depth is somewhat of a concern with Ekblad serving the final two games of his suspension to open the series. Gustav Forsling will have to be their horse as always, but the dropoff after him is noteworthy, which make sense given Florida had to walk away from Brandon Montour and Oliver Ekman-Larsson in free agency last summer. Can Trade Deadline acquisition Seth Jones step up in his first playoff hockey since 2020? He has the size and skating to be a difference maker in this series. He struggled a bit after coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks but seemed to get more comfortable down the stretch; his chance-suppression metrics were so-so in the end but, remember, the Panthers were playing without so many of their top players in the last couple weeks of the season.

Goaltending

The Big Cat is the Big Cat again. Andrei Vasilevskiy started his 2023-24 season late after back surgery and didn’t look like himself, finishing with a career-low .900 save percentage after never finishing lower than .910 in his future Hall of Famer career. This season, he looks like an all-world talent again, reminding us that, despite winning 331 games in his career to date, he’s still only 30 and has plenty of good years left. No goalie has appeared in more games, stopped more shots and played more minutes this season, which makes his per-game play even more impressive. Among goalies with 30 or more games, Vasilevskiy sits fourth in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. He’s been especially good since the 4 Nations Face-Off, posting a .927 SV%. He’s also an all-time great playoff performer, holding two Cup rings, a Conn Smythe Trophy and a .919 SV% when facing elimination in his career.

Making this series all the more enticing: he’s countered by a reigning Cup-winning starter in Bobrovsky, who, over the past two seasons, erased his reputation as a playoff underachiever and played a crucial part in getting Florida to consecutive Finals. But did all that extra hockey wear ‘Bob’ down? He’s been mortal this season, grading out as “only” above average in goals saved above expected. He’s still earned his team’s eternal trust, but few goaltenders have played as well as Vasilevskiy this season, so it feels like Tampa has a slight edge here.

Injuries

If we look at the Panthers’ actual injury list: it’s full of brand names, but most of those players were rested down the stretch and would’ve played if anything was on the line. Bennett returned before the season ended, and there’s been no indication the likes of Reinhart or Barkov are in danger of missing time. Tkachuk isn’t officially confirmed for Game 1 just yet, but it would be a surprise if he doesn’t suit up.

On Tampa’s side, Oliver Bjorkstrand will likely miss the start of the series. The right winger is week to week with an lower-body injury. Checking forward Mitchell Chaffee missed Tampa’s season finale with a head injury, dealt by the Panthers’ Jesse Puljujarvi earlier this week on a play that earned him a two-game suspension. Raddysh has nursed an undisclosed injury this month but was designated as day to day and should return for Game 1.

Intangibles

The Panthers are the most penalized team in the NHL and enter a series that features plenty of pre-existing bad blood. We could soon get a first look at Marchand, Bennett and Tkachuk sharing the ice. But will they push the Panthers to the wrong side of the line? The Lightning’s power play is a weapon, and the Panthers would be wise to keep it off the ice as much as possible. The Bolts, meanwhile, are one of the league’s more disciplined teams, so the power play opportunities could decide this series.

Series Prediction

Despite Tampa outperforming Florida this year, the matchup is a borderline coin flip. Much of the Panthers’ late “struggles” were the result of wisely resting top talent to make a run at the Cup. They’re a formidable two-way team at full strength. But the Bolts’ top players are performing at such a high level right now, most importantly Vasilevskiy, that they enter the postseason with more momentum. Home ice makes the difference in this one, and they squeak by in what should be the closest series of the first round.

Lightning in seven games.