2025 TLN Maple Leafs Prospect Rankings: #12 Topi Niemela

The TLN Maple Leafs prospect rankings were compiled by a panel of seven TLN writers, each ranking our top 20 prospects to form a consensus group ranking.

Rather than hard and fast limits on age or NHL games played to determine “prospect” eligibility, our group decided on a more nuanced approach to include any reasonably young player who is either under contract with the Leafs or on the club’s reserve list, who has not yet established himself as a full-time NHLer.

Two short years ago Topi Niemela was one of the top three prospects in our rankings. Last season he dropped to fifth overall and this year he slid all the way down to 12th overall, potentially his last stop before giving up completely on Niemela as the defenceman of the future.

The slide this year is largely driven from the fact that Niemela has made the move back to Europe from the Marlies, electing to play in Sweden next season for the Malmo Redhawks. There’s not a positive case to be made for the Leafs in this situation but thankfully they made the correct decision in retaining his rights. What warranted this move is the perceived step back that Niemela took last season.

Niemela experienced a 17 point drop off last season after a solid 39 point debut in the AHL. Definitely a step backward, but one needs to consider the overall drop in goals from the Marlies of 249 goals in 2023-24 to 209 goals in 2024-25. Niemela’s drop off is far more significant than the overall Marlies drop off but as a defenceman his points are always going to be more reliant on the forward group’s offensive production so if this is one of the main measures in which Niemela is being judged, it is somewhat unfair.

There is also the fact that Niemela often gets labelled as an offensive defenceman or solely as a puckmover and while Niemela’s control of the puck is a big part of what makes him a sound prospect, his strong positional play and quickness in winning races to the puck have made him a multi-dimensional asset. The drawback is that he doesn’t have the size or strength in puck battles and as a net presence or in corner battles where Niemela doesn’t arrive first, he struggles and with these being key attributes of Leafs defencemen, it is safe to say that the 2020 3rd round pick has begun to fall out of favour.

The fact that William Villeneuve was more successful in an offensive defenceman capacity for the Marlies last year is part of the reason why the Leafs didn’t aggressively push to re-sign Niemela as well as seeing his role reduced likely factored into Niemela’s decision to seek out an opportunity to reset his career a little. And while Niemela is the more skilled between himself and Villeneuve, Villeneuve’s size and ability to deliver on what the Marlies have asked of him has pushed Niemela out.

It might simply be that Niemela requires the time and space of the bigger European rinks to be successful but his strong 2023-24 disproves that to some degree. And in fact, just as there was a pendulum swing after Niemela’s strong 2021-22 season to a more defensively focused 2022-23, that is potentially what the occurred over the past couple of seasons with the Marlies as well. Inconsistency is never going to be an attribute you want to see in a defenceman but with the right partner and the right deployment, Niemela still has some NHL potential worthy of being explored.

Here’s what was said of Topi Niemela in 2023-24:

“There’s a lot of nuances, a lot of calculated decision-making going on there,” a scout said during a recent Marlies game. “You see the way he moves the puck on the power play and that’s great. But it’s the play reads on the rush, in the D-zone, that he doesn’t get enough credit for. He thinks the game proactively.”

As the season has worn on, Niemela’s confidence has grown exponentially. He’s the team’s go-to power-play defender, something he wasn’t used to in Karpat. But he hasn’t folded under the extra responsibility, giving him some more oomph in his toolset. “He works so hard to get so much better,” another scout said. “He’s the type of guy a coach can throw into uncomfortable situations and be happy with the results because Niemela is willing to take it all head-on.”

And here’s what was said of Niemela heading into the trade deadline:

Under GM Brad Treliving, the team has looked to add grit and size to the back end, so the six-foot Niemelä has been slightly lost in the shuffle. He has also taken a step back production-wise with the Marlies while not showing a ton of progress with and without the puck, either.

But there are still many who think Niemelä can be an NHL defenseman. A fantastic showing during the two-game series against the Montreal Canadiens in September turned some heads, which is nice. Niemelä doesn’t have explosive speed and isn’t outstanding in any other skill – instead, he beats defenders with his play-reads and ability to get the puck out of the zone.

With the context of the trade deadline piece by Steven Ellis noting that he can use a change of scenery and has fallen off of Brad Treliving’s radar, perhaps the best thing for Niemela and the Leafs is that he has a big season in Malmo and one of the many interested parties that inquired about his availability during the Dubas years will revisit Niemela again at least allowing Toronto to recoup an asset and giving Niemela an honest shot at the NHL.

For many the only memory of Niemela will be the meatball of a pass he threw up the middle of the ice during the 2023 preseason that took him from being someone ready to challenge for a spot on the Leafs to someone that needed time to develop in the AHL. It would be a shame if that is as close as he gets to the NHL because the talent seems to warrant him getting a look from the Leafs or someone else in 2026-27.