
If you’re the Montreal Canadiens, there are certain things you can’t count on happening in 2026-27 that undeniably contributed to their successful 106-point season and eventual third-round finish. Things like, Lane Hutson tying another of Larry Robinson’s records, or Cole Caufield scoring 50 goals again, when he was shooting a near-unheard-of 19.8%.
Even the newly acquired Chris Kreider will be in tough to so much as reach 50 points like he just did with the Anaheim Ducks. At Age 35 and having understandably shown signs of decline, the Canadiens’ (relatively) major offseason acquisition is far from a shoo-in to stay in the top six the length of the season. All that having been said, the Canadiens are still in a great position to compete for an Atlantic Division title this season, which is what a successful 2026-27 looks like in theory, because a lot can still realistically go right.
For example, Hutson doesn’t need to break any more of Robinson’s records. If he keeps putting up points at his current pace, and, after two straight seasons of this he should be able to, he’ll still inevitably contribute to this team taking its next steps into contention. Similar for Caufield, who has effectively improved his point production each season, he will inevitably still put up points, while other emerging stars like Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov can pick up the goal-scoring slack. Finally, whatever Kreider contributes is technically gravy, seeing as he wasn’t even on the team last season.
And that’s just for starters. Even so, there are certain factors that could get in the way of the Canadiens running roughshod over the Atlantic, arguably the toughest division in the NHL. Here is how they mitigate those, through these three keys to a successful 2026-27 season:
On the equivalent list heading into 2025-26, staying as healthy as possible took the No. 1 spot. And, whereas at the start of the rebuild, the Canadiens literally set records for man-games lost, they were more of a middle-of-the-pack team with a 14th-ranked 256 (per NHLInjuryViz). Now that they are significantly deeper, injuries aren’t as much of a concern.
While the largely unused Patrik Laine accounted for a large chunk, injuries to Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle and Kirby Dach contributed to that total. That’s somewhat encouraging, in that it’s clear the Canadiens could theoretically enjoy more luck still on the injury front (although, with Guhle out to start the season, don’t count your chickens quite yet). Nevertheless, it’s good to know they are working with a margin of error of some kind.
Something the Canadiens at least have more control over, is how they play their goalies. However, it’s not exactly an area in which they’ve excelled in the recent past, choosing to go with a three-goalie rotation at times, while generally giving last year’s starter, Sam Montembeault, too much leeway, when he was mired in a horrible, let’s say, slump, going 10-8-4 last season with a 3.43 goals-against average and .872 save percentage (SV%).
As a result of his struggles, the Canadiens ultimately went with rookie Jakub Dobes and fellow-rookie Jacob Fowler as his backup in the postseason. The gamble paid off, although it’s hard to classify it as such, seeing as the Habs didn’t have much choice. Dobes went 10-4 down the stretch, with a .924 SV%. Based on that performance and how he fared in the playoffs, Dobes is a safe bet to for all intents and purposes become the starter.
The easy conclusion to come to would be Dobes has safely put to bed any consistency concerns due to fatigue the Canadiens may had over potentially overextending him. However, from the point at which he became the team’s No. 1 in early March, they still started Fowler seven times (5-2), effectively deciding on a 67-33 split.
It would be a shame for the Canadiens to abandon an approach that proved successful. And, considering Fowler remains one of the league’s top goaltending prospects, with a perceived ceiling that is even higher than Dobes’, the Habs should continue to balance playing time between the two in a 1A/1B scenario (while sending Montembeault through waivers, in the hopes he clears and can stay within the organization as an insurance policy of sorts).
Going back to the initial argument, how the Canadiens can’t count on everything going right, that technically includes in net. They still accomplished all they did in the regular season with sub-par goaltending overall, finishing 16th with 251 goals against. When they finally decided to ride Dobes, after Montembeault played horribly in a game against the Anaheim Ducks at the trade deadline (never to see the net again), they still found themselves in a playoff spot. That must be a scary concept to wrap one’s mind around for opponents.
Something else to consider?
The Canadiens did the damage they did without a bona fide No. 2 centre, relying on a rookie in Oliver Kapanen to help drive the second line’s success. And, when that didn’t work, with him having supposedly hit a wall, they went with bottom-sixer Jake Eans between Demidov and Alex Newhook in the postseason. They still reached Round 3.
Despite his consistency issues, despite getting scratched in the postseason for supposedly hitting a wall (and not at all being a drag on Demidov), Kapanen still scored a near-rookie-class-leading 22 goals and received Calder Memorial Trophy votes. While there should be no denying Kapanen was far from the ideal second-line centre, he still produced.
I'd be worried if the model said Kapanen was driving his line… He's playing his role well enough right now, finishing and filling in blanks. His results away from Demidov are catastrophic, and I don't know that his 22.5% sh % with Demidov is refelctive of his true talent. https://t.co/eYdysLWZX6 pic.twitter.com/0BIaEAKOqA
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) January 15, 2026
Kapanen is also still 23 years old. So, he has significant room to grow. It’s not outside the realm of possibility he develops into the second-line centre they need, even as soon as this coming season. So, any suggestions the Canadiens will trade valuable assets for an established centre to replace Kapanen should be taken with a grain of salt. They should wait and see to a certain degree, only really pulling the trigger if Kapanen falters.
Remember, even with Kapanen arguably lagging behind Demidov while still playing a prominent role on the team, the Canadiens still finished with 106 points. They technically (emphasis on “technically”) don’t need any more out of him than what he’s already proven capable of delivering. However, it would certainly be nice if he could, which would be the primary way the Canadiens enter the upper echelon of teams in the NHL (if they’re not there already). Again, scary.
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