3 Key Realities for the Maple Leafs’ 2025–26 Regular Season

As the Toronto Maple Leafs prepare for the 2025–26 season, there’s a growing tension between past expectations and present realities. The era of belief in a contending “core” is fading, replaced by a harder truth: the window might still be cracked open, but just barely.

Given the team’s current standing, there are three key realities die-hard fans should consider as they head into this campaign.

Key Reality 1. The Atlantic Division Isn’t Getting Easier

Toronto is likely to finish third in the Atlantic, behind Tampa Bay and Florida. The Panthers and Lightning boast proven, stable cores with elite production and reliable systems. Florida’s rise has also been aided by its status as a preferred player destination— MatthewTkachuk wanted to go there, and others have taken advantage of discounts due to the tax benefits. The Maple Leafs can’t offer the same, and none of their core players have sacrificed salary to build a more flexible roster.

Key Reality 2. There Are Too Many “Ifs” in the Maple Leafs Lineup

Too much of the Maple Leafs’ future depends on uncertainty. Will Matias Maccelli be a top-six difference-maker? Can Joseph Woll or Anthony Stolarz be relied upon to stay healthy and consistent? Will Auston Matthews rebound offensively? Will Morgan Rielly take another step, or regress?

It’s a long list of “hopes,” not certainties. Compare that with Florida’s balance or Tampa’s consistent output from players like Point and Kucherov. Then, it becomes clear the Maple Leafs are still chasing stability.

Key Reality 3. The True Window Might Not Be Now—Or Ever

Toronto’s aging core and salary cap structure limit the team’s ability to adapt quickly. As Florida and Tampa eventually decline, rising teams like Ottawa and Montreal could leapfrog the Maple Leafs. Without significant change, Toronto risks settling into the NHL’s dreaded middle. They are neither bad enough to rebuild nor good enough to contend.