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Edmonton Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner makes a save against the Dallas Stars in the first period of Game 2 of the Western Conference Final of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs at American Airlines Center on May 23. Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

4 Trends That Point to Oilers Winning Game 5 Against Stars

Originally posted on The Hockey Writers | By Brian Swane | Last updated May 29, 2025 11:25 AM ET

The journey back to this point has brought many ups and downs and taken numerous twists and turns, but finally it’s right there in front of them.

Nearly a year after leaving the ice devastated following their Game 7 championship loss, the Edmonton Oilers need just one more victory to book a return trip to the Stanley Cup Final for a rematch with the Florida Panthers.

The Oilers can clinch their second consecutive conference championship by defeating the Dallas Stars in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final on Thursday (May 29) at American Airlines Center. After winning the last three games against Dallas, Edmonton has taken a 3-1 lead in the best-of-seven series.

Including preseason, regular season, and postseason, the Oilers have played 105 games since losing to the Panthers by a score of 2-1 in the deciding game of last year’s Stanley Cup Final, on June 24, 2024, at Amerant Bank Arena in Sunrise. The heartbreak from that night has propelled Edmonton for the last 11 months.

The Panthers punched their ticket to a third straight championship series appearance by defeating the Carolina Hurricanes 5-3 on Wednesday (May 28) to win the Eastern Conference Final in five games.

It’s been more than a decade and a half since the last time the same two teams faced off for the Stanley Cup in back-to-back years: the Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins met in the Final in 2008 and 2009. Prior to that, there hadn’t been a championship rematch since the Oilers and New York Islanders battled for hockey’s holy grail in 1983 and 1984. The Oilers, meanwhile, haven’t won a conference championship in consecutive years since 1987 and 1988.

This is rarefied air, and it almost seems like it’s written in the stars that the Oilers and Panthers will meet once again. All trends point towards Edmonton winning on Thursday in Texas. Here’s a look:

Dominating Dallas

Since falling behind Dallas 2-1 in the 2024 Western Conference Final, the Oilers have won six of their last seven postseason meetings with the Stars, leaving their longtime rivals absolutely flummoxed in the process.

Over those seven games, Edmonton has given up just 12 goals, and half of them came in Game 1 on May 21 when the Stars won 6-3. Edmonton netminder Stuart Skinner hasn’t allowed more than one goal in each of the Oilers’ last five playoff victories over Dallas.

Road Warriors

Edmonton dropped its first two games of the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs to the Los Angeles Kings at Crypto.com Arena. But since then, the Oilers have won five of their last six contests on the road, with the most recent coming in Game 2 against the Stars on May 23 at American Airlines Center, where the visitors prevailed by a score of 3-0 and completely shifted the momentum of this series.

The Oilers have been playing textbook road hockey, scoring first and limiting opportunities for the opposition. In their five wins away from Rogers Place this postseason, Edmonton has conceded just seven goals. Skinner has shutouts in two of his last three starts on the road.

Closing Time

During the Connor McDavid era, the Oilers have been nearly unbeatable in the Stanley Cup Playoffs when they have a chance to eliminate the opposition.

Since the playoff debut for the modern-day Oilers’ core four of McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in 2017, Edmonton has gone 9-2 in close-out games, including a 2-1 victory over the Stars in Game 6 of the 2024 Western Conference Final. The Oilers’ only two losses in close-out games during this span have come in Game 7 on the road.

Edmonton has already taken care of business in its first two opportunities to clinch a series this postseason, defeating the Kings by a score of 6-4 in Game 6 of Round 1, and stunning the Vegas Golden Knights with a 1-0 overtime triumph in Game 5 of the second round thanks to Kasperi Kapanen’s sudden-death goal.

Skinner has a 5-1 record in closeout games in his NHL career. The 26-year-old netminder was the first star of Edmonton’s Game 6 victory over the Stars last year, stopping 33 of 34 shots as the Oilers clinched the conference.

Thriving in Game 5

Game 5 is considered by many to be the pivotal game of a best-of-seven series, and Edmonton’s NHL team can certainly vouch for that: the Oilers have won four consecutive Game 5s, all on the road, and are 8-4 in the fifth game of a series during the McDavid era.

In Game 5 of last year’s Western Conference Final at American Airlines Center, Edmonton followed the template for road playoff success to a T, jumping out to a 3-0 lead and limiting the Stars to just 20 shots en route to a 3-1 victory. Nugent-Hopkins, who leads all players in the 2025 Western Conference Final with nine points, scored twice in that game, including the game-winner.

But while all the data favours Edmonton, the old phrase “that’s why they play the game” always rings true. The Oilers have to go out and get it done on the American Airlines Center ice tonight. They’re facing a tremendous team in Dallas, and no one would be surprised to see this series coming back to Rogers Place for Game 6 on Saturday (May 31).